btc吧

📉 The script has never changed: Bitcoin's "death" is a cycle
Every time the market corrects, the same script arrives on cue.
When the red line spreads downward, panic begins to take over Twitter and communities. Suddenly, those who once shouted "To the Moon" instantly change their tune to:
"Bitcoin has gone to zero."
"This is ultimately a Ponzi scheme."
"It has no value, the bubble has finally burst."
Does this sound familiar? Because we’ve been hearing such voices for over a decade:
2013: Mentougou collapsed, they said Bitcoin was dead.
2015: Long bear market, they said everything was over.
2018: The bubble burst, they said this thing would never come back.
2022: FTX collapsed, they declared the end of cryptocurrency.
The current decline is just another echo of history. 🔊
🧠 The mindset difference between retail investors and winners
The weakness of human nature lies in short-term memory. When prices soar, everyone talks about "digital gold" and "financial future"; but when prices adjust, the same group of people immediately flip to say it’s a "tulip bubble."
The most ironic part of the market is:
Those who desperately shout "it will drop to zero" during a crash and cut their losses are often the same people who come back years later, when prices hit new highs, asking **"Is it still a good time to buy now?"**
Remember: Bitcoin does not care about your emotions. Consensus is washed out in volatility, not bought in revelry.
History does not simply repeat, but there will always be similar rhythms.
Are you planning to be washed away by panic, or will you stay clear-headed while others are afraid?
#BTC #比特币 #市场分析 #加密货币 #HODL

The screenshot shows the compliance verification process triggered by the account's security risk control, and it does not mean withdrawal is prohibited. The platform system will initiate temporary verification when it detects abnormal situations, including but not limited to:

1. Login from a different location or unconventional device
2. Frequent changes of IP or network environment in a short period
3. Sudden changes in account information or security settings
4. Occurrence of abnormal transactions or fund operation behaviors
5. Risk control model prompts that additional compliance materials are needed

To ensure the security of user assets and the overall fairness of the platform, the system will require supplementary materials such as proof of residence for verification. After the review is passed, relevant functions will be automatically restored, and normal compliant use of the account will not trigger this prompt without cause.

First Signs: $OP Leads the Bullish Divergence, Is the “Spring Surge” for Altcoins Approaching?
After experiencing a period of continuous adjustments, the cryptocurrency market seems to be brewing a subtle shift in sentiment. Currently, multiple technical indicators show that the altcoin market is collectively presenting an exciting signal—a bullish divergence.
Why is $OP Worth Attention?
From the daily chart (1D) of $OP (Optimism), we can clearly capture this potential reversal signal:
Price and momentum “divergence”: When the price has recently made new lows or is hovering at low levels, the RSI indicator (Relative Strength Index) above is quietly rising, forming a typical bullish divergence. This means that selling momentum is waning, and buying power is lurking beneath the surface.
Mean reversion after overselling: The blue moving average in the chart is currently still above the price, showing obvious suppression, but it has also created enough “divergence rate.” Once the divergence signal is confirmed, the price often initiates a rapid rebound towards the moving average.
Volume signals: The volume fluctuations occurring in the bottom area suggest that the chips are experiencing a handover from “panic sellers” to “collectors.”
Anticipated “Recovery” Moment
As mentioned in the tweet, this divergence is currently evident across most altcoin charts. This is not just the behavior of a single cryptocurrency, but rather a reflection of the overall altcoin sector gearing up.
Friendly Reminder: Although the signals are enticing, the current bullish divergence is still in a “growth phase,” lacking final structural confirmation (e.g., breaking key resistance levels or moving average suppression). In the crypto market, patience is often more valuable than impulsiveness.
Summary
If $OP can be the first to break the deadlock and confirm this bullish signal, it will become the leader of the next wave of altcoin growth momentum. For investors, now is an ideal window to observe bottom formations and gradually build observation positions.
The silence before dawn is always the most tormenting; are you ready to welcome a possible rebound?

【Breaking! Gold soars to 5100 USD, is tonight the non-farm or 'non-life'?】
Gold and silver are going crazy tonight! $XAU directly broke through the 5100 barrier, and silver surged by 6%! Although there is a slight pullback now, the smell of 'rushed funds' can be sensed through the screen.🚀
Tonight at 21:30, the hope of the entire village: January non-farm report (delayed justice).
The market is currently highly divided:
Goldman Sachs faction: betting on employment only increasing by 45,000 (data extremely weak → interest rate cuts are a certainty → gold soaring to the sky)
Citigroup faction: betting on employment increasing by 135,000 (data strong → interest rate cut expectations extinguished → gold may rebound to trap the bulls)
What is the market betting on? The results are not yet out; gold rises first as a respect, is this locking in victory in advance, or the final madness?
Let's discuss in the comments:
1️⃣ For gold at 5100, do you think it's just starting or is it the ceiling?
2️⃣ Will Bitcoin follow the 'digital gold' logic tonight or will it be drained?
3️⃣ Are you betting on big or small for the non-farm data?👇

An Extremely Bloody Weekend: When the Last 'Old Cannon' Falls Before Dawn
This weekend, the market completed a reshuffle in the most brutal way.
On one side, Trend Research under Yili Hua had a $700 million ETH position on Aave ruthlessly liquidated; on the other side, safe-haven assets entered a frenzy mode, with gold rising to $5000 and silver recovering to $80. This extreme polarization might be the most chilling 'bottom signal' in the market.
As a seasoned player who has gone through several bull and bear cycles, Yili Hua's downfall is lamentable. He did not lose due to a misjudgment of the trend but died from extreme confidence in cyclical lending tools. This on-chain liquidation mechanism is like a heartless slaughterhouse; when volatility suddenly amplifies, the fault tolerance of recursive leverage approaches zero.
This liquidation does not represent the end of the market but rather the extreme release of panic emotions.
When even the most stubborn bulls can no longer hold on and are forced to cut losses in the biting cold of winter, it often means that the shorting momentum has entered the final 'vacuum zone'. At present, the technical indicators have long since lost their effectiveness; this is essentially a maximum sweep targeting liquidity and psychological defenses. When the big players exit, it often serves as a precise 'contrary indicator' in history.
The signals at the macro level are even clearer: Money has not disappeared; it is just fleeing rapidly from risky assets. The violent rebound of gold and silver indicates that global funds are seeking the hardest shields.
Advice for investors:
The cryptocurrency circle has now entered deep waters. Do not attempt to catch falling knives before dawn. Protecting principal is more important than ever—watch less and act more, stay away from leverage. In the face of the on-chain liquidation mechanism of DeFi, no human replenishment speed can surpass the execution of code. One careless move, and it could mean death.

Historic Moment: Altcoin/Gold Valuation Falls into the 'Extreme Cold Zone'
Currently, the valuation of altcoins relative to gold is at a historic low. This is not just a simple correction, but a milestone financial juncture.
Here are several core signals we need to pay attention to:
Oversold Indicator Hits Bottom: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the weekly chart has risen to 25. In technical analysis, this is often seen as a signal of extreme overselling.
Rare Historical Repetition: Such a low RSI level on a weekly basis has never occurred in this way historically; it represents a severe depletion of market momentum.
Prices Have Returned to the Starting Point: The chart shows that the current valuation has reached its lowest point since 2021. We have erased all gains from the past few years, returning to that crucial support range.
🦢 Is this a 'Black Swan'?
Historically, the last time we saw such a level of valuation collapse and technical divergence was during the global market crash caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020.
That was a widely recognized 'Black Swan' event. The recent severe market fluctuations, whether in terms of depth of decline or the level of despair in market sentiment, fit the characteristics of a Black Swan event. The market is undergoing a brutal reshuffling, and this deep 'squat' is often a means of building strength for a possible 'jump' in the future.

The market capitalization of altcoins has completed a 10-year macro cycle.
We will see the market fully reset to a 10-year cycle. Once this adjustment is over, the market capitalization of altcoins will exceed 1 trillion dollars and may grow 10-15 times after the adjustment.

📊 Is history being rewritten? Bitcoin is facing a "dark cloud" curse not seen in 15 years!
Since detailed data has been recorded since 2011, Bitcoin has shown an extremely resilient pattern in its monthly performance in January and February: it has never recorded consecutive monthly losses.
🔍 In-depth review (2011 - 2025)
Looking back over the past 15 years, we can see this resilience of "at least one increase in January/February":
2014: January increased by 9.93%, February plummeted by 33.7% (January held strong).
2018: January plummeted by 28.1%, February rebounded by 5.64% (February held strong).
2022: January fell by 16.9%, February rebounded by 12.2% (February held strong).
2025: Last January surged by 9.54%, February though fell by 17.5%, still followed the pattern.
🚨 2026: A historic moment?
Looking back at the top of the chart:
January 2026: -10.1% (has closed negative)
February 2026: Currently showing -12.3%
If February ultimately closes with a negative candle, we will witness Bitcoin's first consecutive losses in January and February since its inception 17 years ago (data recorded for 15 years).
Historical data may not be the universal key to the future, but it reflects the seasonal sentiment of the market. If this "iron rule" of 15 years is to be broken this month, it may signify a profound change in market logic; conversely, if a stunning reversal to positive occurs in the second half of February, then the "historical pattern" will be revered once again!
Dear crypto friends, do you think this 15-year curse will be broken this year? Have we reached the bottom? 👇
#BTC #比特币历史数据 #加密货币 #技术分析参考 #BinanceSquare

Will History Repeat Itself? The CME Gap of BTC and the Fate of $84,000 🔮
Do you remember 2022? 🤔
At that time, $BTC left a CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) gap at $35,000. Although the market experienced a long rollercoaster, this gap was finally 'perfectly filled' only in the fourth quarter of 2023.
This tells us to be patient and confirms the old saying: 'Gaps always get filled.'
🔴 Current Focus:
Bitcoin has once again formed a prominent gap at CME, with the price located at $84,000.
If... history rhymes again, what does this mean?
Does this indicate that we are destined to return to this price level? Is it the bottom of a pullback or the target of a rebound?
In this uncertain market, do you believe in the CME gap theory? 👇 Let me know your predictions in the comments!
#BTC #CMEGap #Bitcoin #交易策略 #加密货币

Another stunning chart.

The holders' profit and loss supply is increasing.

This means more people are unable to profit from #Bitcoin, and losses are significantly increasing.

We have only seen this situation during the market peaks of 2015, 2018, and 2022.

We are sending the same signal again.

This should be enough to serve as ample reason to accumulate.

#Altcoins have they been completely "destroyed"? 💔
Look at the horrifying market: most altcoins have plummeted 60-80% since October, even strong ones like $TAO have retraced 75%.
But in the fear, I see opportunity:
Market characteristics: Volatility has surged, which is usually a signal of bottoming out.
Personal action: I have been gradually accumulating over the past few weeks, enriching the altcoin landscape.
While others panic, I am increasing my positions; altcoins may only be one step away from a true bottom. Waiting for next week's market shift! 🚀

$BTC returns to the lower limit of the rainbow/reversion trend chart.

This is usually the range where the bear market stays for most of the time. In the previous bear market, it even briefly fell below this range.

Please note that this channel has been adjusted previously for future applicability.

I believe that as the cycles slow down, these types of charts will become increasingly difficult to interpret. This situation has been ongoing for a while.

#BTC, I think this is possible.

$BTC rebounded from the middle position of the 2024 range.

In just a few weeks, the price plummeted by 38%, and many large leveraged positions were liquidated.

If you have a lot of cash on hand and are patient in accumulating funds or profiting from market fluctuations, now is an excellent time.

Bottomed out

#ETH Macroeconomic Cycle Deep Analysis
Phase One: 2013 - 2021 (Five Wave Pulse Structure)
This is the first major wave of Ethereum (Macro wave 1).
Structure: Completed a standard five-wave upward pulse structure.
Endpoint: The first wave peaked at around $4,500.
Phase Two: 2022 - 2026 (ABC Flat Correction Wave)
We are currently in the adjustment of the major second wave (Macro wave 2).
Structure: Characterized by a complex ABC flat correction.
Expected Target: The second wave is expected to bottom and end in the range of $900 to $1,000.
Phase Three: Mid 2026 - 2028 (Major Third Wave Expansion)
This is the most anticipated breakout period in the market:
2026 - 2027: Bottom formation building phase (Accumulation period).
2027 - 2028: Commencement of the major third wave (Macro Wave 3) large-scale expansion.
Expected Target: Targeting directly at $13,000 to $15,000.
Note:
The derivation of the above forecast targets requires a review of detailed wave theory (Elliott Wave) cycle charts. The timeline for Phase Three is a prediction, with an expected margin of error of about plus or minus 6 months.

🥈 Silver peaks, liquidity returns to the crypto market? Analysis of market rotation logic 🚀
Silver has indeed shown an astonishing upward trend recently, but from a technical and capital flow perspective, the 'ceiling' of this rebound may have become clear.
📉 Viewpoint: The peak has appeared, and silver has entered a consolidation period.
The current market shows that the previous high for silver has formed, and the liquidity at key positions has been fully absorbed. This kind of 'overbought' reshuffle is inevitable:
Momentum exhaustion: Funds chasing highs have entered the market, and selling pressure above is starting to show.
Volatility convergence: Silver is expected to enter a period of low volatility sideways or downtrend.
🔄 Capital rotation: Who is the next successor?
When the volatility of safe-haven assets or traditional commodities declines, the 'hot money' seeking high returns will never remain idle. Based on past experience, the rotation path of capital is very clear:
Traditional safe-haven/commodities ➡️ Risk preference assets (Risk-on) ➡️ #Bitcoin & #Crypto
💡 Why now?
During the consolidation period of silver, capital often flows to more explosive alternative assets.
Liquidity return: Investors cash out from precious metals, seeking new growth points.
Narrative switch: Market attention is shifting from 'hard currency' to 'digital gold' #BTC.
Crypto sentiment: With macro liquidity improving, cryptocurrencies are in the best position to absorb this overflow of funds.
⚠️ Summary:
Do not stubbornly hold onto assets that have exhausted their momentum. Keep a close eye on the flow of funds; the 'cold' of silver may be the 'hot' of the crypto market.
Are you planning to continue holding silver, or have you already started positioning in $BTC and altcoins? Let’s chat in the comments!
#白银 #Bitcoin