This morning at 8:00, when Bitcoin was poked towards $60,000, many people's first reaction was, 'Finally, we hit the bottom, right?'. But those who have truly experienced the cycle see not 'cheapness', but a glaring signal: the price has once again fallen below the 2021 bull market peak of $69,000.
This step not only shattered the support level but also the market's last psychological defense line - 'the bottom of a bear market is always higher than the peak of the previous bull market'. This ironclad rule was first broken in 2022; today, it has been publicly mocked for the second time.
What's more ruthless is that this time it's not just a 'solo act' in the crypto market, but a synchronized 'spasm' of overall asset liquidity: a chain of crypto liquidations, ETF funds reversing, miner revenues hitting shutdown prices, and even safe-haven assets like precious metals plunging. When the fear and greed index falls into single digits, the market has already scripted its play: this is not an ordinary pullback, but a reset after a dual bankruptcy of 'institutional dividends + liquidity expectations'.
What you want is not a phrase 'to bottom or not', but to see through this set of plots: breaking the position never equals hitting the bottom; breaking the position means the 'downward film' has just begun.
One, why is the loss of 69k a 'fatal injury'?
69k is not just a price number; it is the **'line of dignity' and 'memory anchor'** of the last cycle.
The collapse of faith: It carries an illusion — as long as the previous high is held, the 'long-term upward spiral' of the crypto market remains dignified. Once it breaks below, the market is forced to admit: those who bought and held (HODL) in the last bull peak have all entered a state of loss anxiety.
The replication of history: What happened after breaking below 20k in 2022 was not an immediate reversal, but a cruel process: first, panic broke through, then the rebound failed, and finally, the chips were thoroughly washed clean through repeated credit shocks.
Today's decline structure is astonishingly similar to that of 2022: when a key price level is first breached, the market will first release extreme emotions, then give a 'bounce illusion', and finally enter a deeper secondary probe. Many people die in the second stage because they mistakenly take the 'bounce' for a 'reversal'.
Two, looking back at the old accounts of 2022: the most painful part is never in the first step.
In June 2022, when it broke below 20k, the monthly decline was nearly 43%, and calls for bottoming were rampant. What happened? The market oscillated for half a year until the FTX explosion in November dealt the final blow, finally completing the deleveraging.
Core logic: The bottom does not appear when bad news is at its worst, but when bad news comes out and still 'cannot move the market'.
If you go all in to bottom out at the first moment of breaking the previous high, you often send yourself into the bloodbath of the next stage. The real bottom is the kind of 'deadly bad news is exhausted, but the price no longer makes new lows' dull feeling.
Three, the 'chain chase' of the institutional era.
This time is more dangerous than 2022 because 'institutionalization' has turned liquidation into an automated avalanche, rather than a retail stampede.
The 'turnover trap' of ETFs: Don't be fooled by record trading volumes; that is institutions retreating and hedging. Institutions are best at passing the risk at high positions to the 'warriors' eager to take over during extreme volatility.
The life-and-death test of the financial model: When the average holding price of companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR) inverts with the market price, the market will start to preview its financial pressure. It does not need to actually go bankrupt; the panic of **'expecting it to go bankrupt'** will repeatedly crush the coin price.
The forced disarmament of miners: When Hashprice (computing power price) drops to the limit, miners are not selling because they are bearish, but are forced to sell to survive. This kind of 'irrational selling' usually has inertia and will not stop at the first step.
Four, pitfall guide: refuse the 'hero mode' bottoming.
If you must operate, please give up the fantasy of 'betting on a point' and switch to the strategy of **'betting on a process'**.
Refer to VIX stratification: The truly high-probability buy point is not when 'panic just begins', but when 'panic reaches extremes and starts to numb'.
Buy in batches, not all at once: Default that this is not the final drop. Test with small positions during extreme panic, but must leave enough ammunition for the next deeper probe.
Focus on price behavior: The bottom signal is a shrinking sideways movement, and the rebound can hold key moving averages. If the rebound is quickly engulfed, that's a typical 'trap for the bulls'.
Five, the ultimate truth: the bottom is a 'period of time', not a 'point'.
From the experience of 2022, it takes a long time to change hands from breaking the previous high to truly getting out of the quagmire. The real bottom atmosphere is often: people no longer discuss getting rich, no longer discuss bottom fishing, and are even too lazy to curse, the market is as silent as a wasteland.
Right now, we are clearly still in the 'extreme fear first chapter'.
Conclusion: Don't leave the field just when the second half has just started.
Regarding XPL or other narratives, in the face of liquidity exhaustion, any 'defensive asset' is pale. Whether the direction is right is no longer important; having an escape route (cash flow) is the top priority.
Breaking 69,000 is the market's wake-up call for everyone. The market will not praise your bravery; it will only punish your impatience. The bear market rewards not those who guess the lowest point, but those who remain at the table during the most difficult bottoming period, waiting for the structure to truly stabilize.
