$TNSR is another overbought altcoin with several technical indicators pointing at imminent correction. SHORT $TNSR Entry: 0.056 - 0.058 TP1: 0.052 TP2: 0.048 TP3: 0.045 I expect dump to happen soon. Trade $TNSR here 👇
Extreme fear in the market and oversold readings across most technical indicators suggest that the bottom for $BTC may be quite close.
💁♂️ However, before starting to accumulate $BTC on spot and considering new long positions, I plan to wait for clear reversal patterns to form - the market remains highly unstable, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another wick below $60,000 within the next month.
Although the overall market trend is bearish, some altcoins are still randomly pumping ($STG ). While waiting for a broader reversal, a reasonable strategy could be shorting such altcoins with low leverage.
«The world is entering a phase where three orders are breaking down at once: the monetary, the political, and the geopolitical,» — Ray Dalio
1. The monetary system and government debt: ▪️ Any fiat system eventually accumulates debt, and at some point debt servicing crowds out economic growth. ▪️ Governments typically choose between default and printing money — historically, they almost always choose to print.
2. The reserve currency problem: ▪️ The U.S. can issue debt as long as there is global demand for it, but that demand is weakening due to excessive debt and rising geopolitical risks. ▪️ Asset freezes and sanctions undermine trust in the dollar, prompting countries to seek alternatives for holding reserves.
3. Gold back in focus: ▪️ Gold is not anyone’s liability, and central banks are increasing their holdings as protection against fiat risks. ▪️ Gold’s rise is not mere “speculation,” but a reflection of declining trust in money. ▪️ The key is allocation, not price — roughly 5–15% of a portfolio.
4. Where the U.S. stands: ▪️ The U.S. remains the strongest power but is in relative decline. ▪️ In Dalio’s framework, it is at stage 5 out of 6 — “near crisis,” but not yet systemic collapse. Stage 6 would involve a breakdown of monetary, political, and geopolitical orders.
5. What systemic breakdown looks like: ▪️ Insufficient demand for government debt amid rising supply. ▪️ Higher long-term rates and central bank intervention. ▪️ Debt monetization through money printing and currency weakening. ▪️ Capital flowing into “hard” assets.
7. CBDCs: ▪️ Central bank digital currencies are convenient for payments but lack privacy. ▪️ They give governments greater control over money. ▪️ CBDCs are unlikely to become a global store of value.
✍️ Advice for individuals: ▪️ Spend less than you earn and maintain financial discipline. ▪️ Diversify assets, including defensive ones. ▪️ Invest in education and your children’s future.
Historically, the high of the previous cycle has often acted as an approximate bottom of the next one. After reaching $69,000 in 2021, Bitcoin pulled back to the previous cycle high - around $20,000 (the 2017 high).
If this pattern repeats, the bottom of the current cycle could form in the $65,000–$55,000 range.
Once I see selling volume starting to decline, I’ll begin accumulating spot positions.
💁♂️ Also worth noting: during the current cycle, the weekly RSI never rose above 70 - the bull market was relatively weak. That suggests the bear phase may also be shorter than usual.