«The world is entering a phase where three orders are breaking down at once: the monetary, the political, and the geopolitical,» — Ray Dalio

1. The monetary system and government debt:

▪️ Any fiat system eventually accumulates debt, and at some point debt servicing crowds out economic growth.

▪️ Governments typically choose between default and printing money — historically, they almost always choose to print.

2. The reserve currency problem:

▪️ The U.S. can issue debt as long as there is global demand for it, but that demand is weakening due to excessive debt and rising geopolitical risks.

▪️ Asset freezes and sanctions undermine trust in the dollar, prompting countries to seek alternatives for holding reserves.

3. Gold back in focus:

▪️ Gold is not anyone’s liability, and central banks are increasing their holdings as protection against fiat risks.

▪️ Gold’s rise is not mere “speculation,” but a reflection of declining trust in money.

▪️ The key is allocation, not price — roughly 5–15% of a portfolio.

4. Where the U.S. stands:

▪️ The U.S. remains the strongest power but is in relative decline.

▪️ In Dalio’s framework, it is at stage 5 out of 6 — “near crisis,” but not yet systemic collapse. Stage 6 would involve a breakdown of monetary, political, and geopolitical orders.

5. What systemic breakdown looks like:

▪️ Insufficient demand for government debt amid rising supply.

▪️ Higher long-term rates and central bank intervention.

▪️ Debt monetization through money printing and currency weakening.

▪️ Capital flowing into “hard” assets.

7. CBDCs:

▪️ Central bank digital currencies are convenient for payments but lack privacy.

▪️ They give governments greater control over money.

▪️ CBDCs are unlikely to become a global store of value.

✍️ Advice for individuals:

▪️ Spend less than you earn and maintain financial discipline.

▪️ Diversify assets, including defensive ones.

▪️ Invest in education and your children’s future.