MoonMan567

The world after InfoFi looks strangely quiet

Not because people stopped writing. But because many stopped understanding - why.
The 'write - receive' model used to work like a coffee machine. You dropped a token - you got attention. You wrote a thread - you got a little more. Then it continued by inertia. Then the machine broke. And suddenly it turned out that half of the authors had never brewed coffee themselves.

BNB

🚀 Shorts at maximum. Is the market setting a trap?

According to Santiment, $BTC funding rates are currently in deep negative — the strongest short positioning since August 2024.

Back then, the scenario was simple:
🔻 Mass shorting
⚡ Liquidations
🚀 +83% in 4 months

Now the situation is similar. But there is a nuance.

Negative funding is fuel.
But fuel does not ignite by itself.

For a full short squeeze, a trigger is needed:
- positive macro
- signals of Fed easing
- strong spot demand
- ETF inflow

Without this, the market can “squeeze down” for a long time, forcing longs to capitulate.

📌 What does this mean?

- The potential for a sharp rebound is high
- Volatility is guaranteed
- Risk management is critically important

When everyone is shorting, the upward movement becomes the most painful.

The question is only one:
who will be the first to not withstand — shorts or weak longs?

⚡ USA: unemployment assistance claims

🔴 Initial Jobless Claims: 227K
Forecast: 222K
Previous: 231K

The fact is slightly worse than expected, but lower than the previous value.

What does this mean?

The labor market is not collapsing, but is gradually losing its overheated momentum.
This is not a signal of a crisis — it is a signal of slow cooling.

And for the Fed, this is important:
the more soft employment data, the fewer arguments to maintain a tight policy.

For crypto — moderately positive.
Weaker economy = higher likelihood of rate cuts = more liquidity.

But for now, this is just one element of the mosaic.
The trend is formed not by individual figures, but by the sequence of reports.

#MoonManMacro

Central Asia and Digital Currencies - A Silent Region with Potential

I have never (I hope this will change in the future) been to Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, or Kazakhstan. And even now, when all my attention is focused on the Web3 universe, I want to say that Central Asia is not the noisiest region in crypto news. However, in terms of digital currencies, much more is happening here than it seems at first glance.

BNB

Central Asia in terms of crypto is quieter than the EU or the USA. But in fact:

1) Kazakhstan - the pilot digital tenge was launched in November 2023
2) Uzbekistan - the law "On Crypto Assets" was adopted in 2022, regulator NAPP
3) Kyrgyzstan - the law "On Virtual Assets" has been in effect since 2022

The region is not in a hurry. It is formalizing the rules.

Against this backdrop, $KGST - a stablecoin 1:1 to the Kyrgyz som, BEP-20 standard (BNB Chain), operating within the framework of the legislation.

Without noise. With documents
#Stablecoins @BinanceCIS

KGST

Cumulative PNL

+0.07 USDT

BNB

Imagine you could ask the blockchain in plain language: "Which wallets transferred more than a million $VANRY last week?" - and receive a clear answer with an explanation of how this is known.

This is exactly what KAYON does on @Vanarchain , the first on-chain reasoning engine, which shows not just the answer, but the entire thought process. Not just data - but understanding data. With auditing. On-chain.
#Vanar

VANRYUSDT

Closed

PNL

+0.43USDT

🇺🇸 The House of Representatives votes against tariffs on Canada

The bill to repeal the tariffs imposed under the 'fentanyl emergency' passed with a score of 219–211.
Six Republicans supported the Democrats.

What does this mean for the market?
👉 Less trade tension = less political risk
👉 Potential softening of foreign economic rhetoric
👉 Positive for risk-on, if the decision is finally approved

This is not the end of the story.
But the mere fact of the split in the vote is a signal: a tough tariff policy no longer appears unconditional.

Markets are closely watching the details.

Why thinking is not everything, and true intelligence begins with action

Last week, I sat with an old friend over coffee. Even back when we ran to lectures together at the institute, he had a reputation as a hopeless dreamer. And now he was telling me about his latest business plan, detailed, well thought out, even with numbers.
I listened and waited: "That all sounds good, but when do you start?" He fell silent, and then: "I'm still thinking..." An old saying from my grandmother came to mind: "A fool grows rich in thought." I agree, it sounds harsh, but the essence is simple - thoughts without actions are just fantasies. The smartest plan is worth nothing until it turns into concrete steps.

🇺🇸 Trump hints at a "different" Fed

Trump stated that the US economy could grow by 15% under Kevin Warsh's leadership and called Powell's appointment a "big mistake".

The key here is not the number 15%.
The key is the signal.

This is a direct message:
👉 the next course of the Fed should be more growth-oriented
👉 lower rates
👉 more liquidity

The Fed is formally independent. But markets trade expectations, not formalities.

If there is a feeling that monetary policy will become softer after the elections —
risk-assets will start to price this in advance.

BTC always reacts first to changes in liquidity.
For now, this is just a narrative.

But big trends start precisely from narratives.

#MoonManMacro

@Plasma anchored the credit market through Aave (lending), Tether (liquidity in dollars), Ethena, and Ether.fi (productive collateral). This is no longer a test DeFi sandbox, but an attempt to gather a full stack.

Next - deeper integrations with on/off ramps, FX, and licensed payment solutions. If on-chain credit is really connected to merchant settlement and treasure - this will be a complete infrastructure, not just a token narrative.

$XPL #Plasma

XPL

How to start with Plasma. Wallets, bridges, first steps and first failures

I am participating in the campaign @Plasma on CreatorPad, so I quite regularly write specifically about this project. And after yesterday's material on the tokenomics of XPL, I received a message from an old acquaintance: "okay, you've convinced me - how do I get in?". And here I realized that I, supposedly an "expert" on the platform, haven't tried to do this myself yet. I sat down to connect.

XPL

⚡ USA: the labor market is still alive

🔴 Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.4% (expected 0.3%)
🔴 NFP: 130K (expected 70K)
🔴 Unemployment: 4.3% (better than forecast)

After weak retail sales, the market has already begun to dream of a quick easing.
But these numbers cool optimism.

Wages are rising faster than expected — this is a direct inflationary factor.
Employment is above expectations — the economy is not collapsing.
Unemployment is not rising — no crises on the horizon.

And that means one thing:
The Fed has no reason to rush to cut rates.

For $BTC and other crypto, the signal is moderately negative.
Strong economy = longer high rates = more expensive dollar = less liquidity.

And here it gets interesting: the market is starting to tear between "consumer weakening" and "strong labor market."
When macro contradicts itself — volatility is just beginning.

#MoonManMacro

After TerraUSD, the phrase "backed by fiat 1:1" ceased to be convincing in itself.

Now the details matter:
- where the reserves are
- in which banks
- is there an audit
- who is accountable to the regulator

Fiat backing is not an algorithm. It is real money in accounts.

$KGST claims a 1:1 model to the Kyrgyz som with reserves in banks and regulation under the law on virtual assets.

It's not about hype. It's about discipline.
@Binance CIS #Stablecoins

KGST/USDT

Price

0.01139

Almost 9 million UAH for stolen electricity. A miner-fraudster was exposed in Zhytomyr region.

Mining is freedom.
Stealing electricity is no longer freedom, but a banal crime.

In Zhytomyr region, a man has been running farms for years, stopping the meter with a special device. He paid as a 'domestic consumer' while extracting industrial volumes $BTC . Then he scaled up - rented workshop, own substation, the same scheme.

Fiat backing - why "1:1" on paper and in reality is not always the same

Once I caught myself thinking a strange thought. The phrase "fiat money" - where does it even come from?
Why fiat money, and not, say, "Porsche-money" or "Audi-money"? I decided to look into it. It turns out - fiat in translation from Latin means "let it be so". An indication. A command. That is, fiat money is money that is worth something simply because the emperor or the state decided so. Not because there is gold or silver behind it. But because that is what was agreed upon. It sounds almost philosophical. But it is precisely from this "agreement" that all the logic of reserves, backing, and trust grows. And it is here that the most interesting part with stablecoins begins.

⚡ USA: the consumer hit the brakes

🔴 Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.0% (expected 0.3%)
🔴 Retail Sales m/m: 0.0% (expected 0.4%)

After 0.5–0.6% earlier — this is no longer noise. This is a pause.

The American consumer is the main engine of the US economy. When he stops, the Fed cannot be “tight” for long. The market immediately prices in greater chances of rate cuts.

The classic result:
— dollar under pressure
— yields down
— risk-on assets get air

For BTC, this is moderately positive. But without euphoria.
One report does not change the trend — it only shifts expectations.

The real movement will begin when the Fed confirms this with actions, not rhetoric.

#MoonManMacro

🗳 Web3 Glossary: Opinion Markets

What is this?
Opinion Markets are decentralized platforms where users buy and sell shares in 'public opinion' or certain narratives. Unlike prediction markets that are based on event outcomes (True/False), opinion markets assess people's attitudes towards something at a specific point in time.

BTTC

Most blockchains can store and execute. But they cannot explain.

Kayon at @Vanarchain is the first reasoning engine that shows not just the answer, but the entire thought process. Ask in plain language - get explanations with sources. Compliance right in the blockchain, 47+ jurisdictions.

Not a black box. A scientist who shows the methodology.
#Vanar $VANRY

VANRYUSDT

Closed

PNL

+0.85USDT

Why an answer without explanations is not intelligence, but a black box

Yesterday I went to the Ukrposhta branch to pick up a package. A usual matter. But the line wasn’t moving.
In front stood an elderly woman - she was confused about something. She was asking. The tired operator monotonously replied: "yes", "no", "yes"... Without any explanation. One minute stretched into twenty. People in line were getting anxious. And I stood there thinking: here it is. Not a lack of information - a lack of explanation.

📌 The "Satoshi address" received 2.56 BTC

The transaction is confirmed. On-chain - everything is clean.
But let's avoid fantasies.

This is a transfer TO an address that researchers associate with early Satoshi mining.
This is not the movement of his coins. Not a "waking up". Not a market signal.

Such transactions happen regularly:
— someone "burns" BTC
— someone makes a symbolic gesture
— someone just wants to make headlines

Coins from early wallets do not move for years. And until this happens - everything else is just noise.

The market is currently in a phase of stress. People are looking for signs.
But the blockchain is not mysticism, it's mathematics.

And 2.56 BTC do not change the macro cycle.
For now.
#MoonManMacro