Julie_

Federal Reserve Governor Waller confirmed that a "streamlined main account" will be launched for crypto firms by the end of the year, but Congress's broader cryptocurrency market structure bill is stalled.
This is a typical period of infrastructure adjustment. Regulators are shifting from "complete rejection" to "controlled access," but the political games at the legislative level are causing delays. The main account is the artery for the inflow and outflow of funds; the Federal Reserve's willingness to open a small door is more practically significant than Congress's bickering. This eliminates the tail risk of being completely cut off from fiat channels, but it cannot bring a frenzy of incremental funds in the short term.
BTC fell below $67,000, affected by widespread risk aversion stemming from concerns over AI debt in the US stock market. This is a structural deleveraging in the middle of a bull market. The market is paying the price for previous overheating. When the AI bubble tightens traditional funding, the crypto market, being the most sensitive to liquidity, will inevitably hurt first. But this is just emotional transmission, not logical refutation.
Liquidity is not only built through rises, but also through "drops." The current pullback is cleaning out weak hands, making the vehicle lighter.
BTC remains an emotional anchor. It is currently testing the validity of support at $65k-$66k, and its task is to "hold the lower limit"; as long as the key structure is not broken, the logic of the bull market remains unchanged.
ETH / UNI is a testing ground for old money. BlackRock's choice of Uniswap for on-chain trading is a significant signal that has been overlooked due to falling prices. They are transitioning from mere speculation targets to "infrastructure channels" for institutional funds.
#美联储何时降息？

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The behavior of giant whales and retail investors has begun to show clear differentiation. On-chain data shows that large holders are gradually accumulating at low levels, while short-term traders are still in a panic retreat; at the same time, long-term holders like Saylor continue to express their stance by using financing to withstand the cycle. This indicates that the market has not entered a phase of systemic abandonment, but rather a layered restructuring of risk tolerance.
#美国零售数据逊预期

Mining and institutional differentiation provide more information than price.

Mining companies are selling coins while transforming into AI; investment banks are starting to cover but giving clear differentiation ratings, indicating that the industry is entering a phase of capital efficiency screening. Only those who can withstand the low-price cycle will qualify for the next round; those who cannot will be forced to change tracks or exit.

When the market starts discussing who can survive, it's often not far from the emotional bottom.
#沃什美联储政策前瞻

This rebound feels more like a repair of risk appetite rather than a trend reversal.

The Nikkei hits a new high, and gold strengthens simultaneously, pulling BTC back from the brink of panic to above 70,000. However, this is more about external sentiment input than a strengthening of crypto itself. In the context of the cycle, this is a technical breather after deleveraging, affecting the rhythm, not the direction.

The on-chain structure is actually quite clear; short-term holders are clearing losses, while long-term holders continue to absorb chips. This is a typical leverage reset, rather than a full capitulation. The extreme volatility of meme coins is just noise on the edge of liquidity.

The key is whether it can stand firm.

The signals given by options are very direct: there is room for repair only above 71,500, and if it cannot stand firm, it remains in the oscillation range.

The rebound addresses sentiment, but only time can repair the structure.
#BTC何时反弹？

8 departments jointly issued a notice, the surface appears bearish, but the structure is relatively favorable.

The key is not just another ban, but the boundaries have been clearly defined at once: RWA tokenization, domestic entities issuing coins overseas, and stablecoins (especially the renminbi stablecoin) have been explicitly named, effectively ending the fantasy of gray arbitrage and compliant chain hanging.

It is clear who this is negative for, but for information and content platforms that do not issue, do not touch funds, and do not facilitate transactions, it is rather favorable.
The more regulators compress financial activities, the greater the users' demand for discussion, cognition, and information access becomes.

Strong regulation is not a bad thing; the bad thing is vague regulation. This time, China has cleared away the gray areas, leaving a cleaner space.
#监管框架

Looking at it over a cycle, BTC has fallen to around 72,000. The core contradiction is not in the price itself, but in the sequence of capital withdrawal: ETF outflows continue, and the prediction market significantly raises the probability of breaking 65,000, indicating that short-term capital is more concerned about withdrawal risks than long-term narratives. This segment mainly affects time, compressing what could have been a horizontal digestion process into a concentrated release.

ETH's relative resilience does not indicate strength, but rather a passive result after funds temporarily lose their offensive intent; mining stocks and high-beta assets have deeper declines, reflecting a synchronized contraction of cash flow and leverage.
#小非农数据不及预期

First, the price of BTC is not important; the range is what matters.
74,000–75,000 is not an emotional level, but a structural level: the lower corresponds to the vicinity of the 200-week moving average and the last round of institutional accumulation area, while the upper 82,200 is a dense region for short liquidations. This means that the current market is not a trending market but a range-driven game of liquidation. The caution in the options market also confirms that in the short term, no one is willing to pay a premium for direction.

Second, the weakness of ETH is not coincidental; it is a matter of funding logic.
ETH's decline is significantly greater than that of BTC, not because Vitalik is selling coins, but due to the combination of three factors:
1. Continuous net outflow of spot ETFs, with marginal buying disappearing;
2. ETH, as a high-β asset, is prioritized for recovery during the deleveraging phase;
3. The narrative side lacks short-term verifiable new demand.
This is a structural pressure under the retreat of risk appetite, not a single event impact.

Third, ETF inflows provide more information than price.
BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of 562 million in a single day, coinciding with 46% of the supply being at a loss, indicating that long-term capital has not systematically retreated. The market is falling, but capital is stratifying.
Now is the stage where positions are being educated, and the stage where narratives are being falsified.
#V神卖币

A decline does not indicate a misunderstanding; it only suggests that the positions were adjusted too quickly.

ETH has performed weaker, not because of a sudden deterioration in fundamentals, but because when risk appetite retreats, the market prioritizes recovering the more elastic parts; assets like SOL with high beta also play the same role.

Regarding exchanges, FUD, and policy news, they are merely amplifiers. What truly determines the next steps is still whether the US stock market stabilizes and when liquidity eases.

The real bottom has never been about discussing price, but rather about discussing time.
#BTC何时反弹？ #Strategy增持比特币

The essence of this round of decline is still the withdrawal of leverage and liquidity.
In the context of the cycle, this is a typical phase of defoaming to the stage of dispelling illusions. BTC returned to 76,000 – 78,000, which is a one-time correction of the market that previously exchanged time for space. It affects time more: compressing what should have been a slow correction into a period of high-intensity liquidation.
The weekend crash, the liquidation of 2 billion USD, and the emotional blame on Binance are essentially just the structure being overly reliant on leverage. The exchange is merely an amplifier.
The real risk has never been the decline, but rather that everyone thinks it won't decline again.
ETH has dropped even more severely, which is a natural result when risk appetite retreats; BTC remains a thermometer for macro emotional temperature; BNB, SOL, and XRP are more like liquidity pressure zones in this round. However, the actions of long-term funds are quite consistent; MicroStrategy has not changed its strategy, and the corporate BTC treasury has not hit the brakes.
When safe-haven assets are sought after, risk assets must first take a hit.
The real bear market is not when the decline is the most significant, but when no one discusses whether to bottom fish anymore.
#BTC何时反弹？

In the past few days, the market has retraced, and many people's first reaction is to look for bad news. But I believe the OGs will pay more attention to two things: whether the chips are shrinking and whether there is real behavior on-chain. Emotions will fluctuate, but the structure will leave traces.
MEET48 has done a solid job this time: 30% of the voting revenue from the second "MEET48 Best7: Stage of Light" has been destroyed, with 8,698,560 tokens $IDOL directly going into a black hole, verifiable on-chain. This is truly about writing the narrative into the ledger.
More importantly, this destruction is not an isolated event but is accompanied by a verifiable period of on-chain activity: 61,948 transactions over 7 days, 356,18 unique active wallets, ranked 1st in 24h UAW across BSC social dApps and 1st in BSC UAW for 7 days. From a trading perspective, the meaning of this data is simple; it’s not enough that people are talking about it, what matters is that people are using it.
In a cyclical view, it resembles construction actions during a period of attention return: the destruction (0.181% of total supply) affects chip density, leaning more towards quality; TXN/UAW affects the duration of attention, leaning more towards time.
The simultaneous appearance of both will prevent trading heat from being fleeting.
Destruction determines chips, and activity determines lifespan.
In the short term, narratives are observed, while in the long term, realization is key.
Looking at the 2026 roadmap, it essentially reinforces the closed loop of use-production-authorization-reallocation: ParoAI + MEET48.ai lowers the threshold for creation, making content production more routine; Auditions GO naturally brings high-frequency interactions and consumption scenarios; POChain is responsible for putting AIGC content on-chain for assetization paths for UGC outputs. For trading, this means the role of $IDOL is clearer; it is not just an emotional coin, but a universal fuel for participation and incentives within the ecosystem.
True strength is not about how beautiful one destruction is, but whether it can continue to be hot on-chain when the next event begins.
#IDOL

BTC fell to around 81,000. It's not negative news; it's a liquidity pullback + a leveraged self-ignition liquidation.
In the cycle: this is the de-bubbling phase, which affects the timing more, bringing the market back to a sustainable rhythm rather than immediately rewriting the long-term direction.
Bull and bear markets don't rely on shouting; they depend on the breathing of funds. The fuller the leverage, the more the pullback resembles a natural disaster.
BTC is a liquidity thermometer, ETH is a risk appetite amplifier, and AI coins are more like emotional leverage.
The more fear there is, the more one should first ask: whose positions are being washed this time.
#加密市场回调

#黄金 surged to 5400, the Federal Reserve neither dove nor hawked, and a single sentence from Powell brought market sentiment back to risk-off mode. BTC is being held down around 88k, ETH has returned below 3000, which is actually not surprising; at this stage, crypto is still seen as a risk asset in the macro perspective.

#TSLAUSDT Set an alarm, it will definitely rise a bit as soon as it starts.

Standard Chartered directly warns that by 2028, stablecoins may siphon off $500 billion in deposits from traditional banks.
Stablecoins have already begun to encroach on the banking fundamentals.
Instruments like USDT and USDC are no longer just trading intermediaries; they are becoming an invisible global dollar system. It's no wonder that banks and legislators are so anxious now.
#渣打银行预测

The market is cold, the sentiment is cold, and attention is subtly shifting.
BTC is hovering around 86–88k, ETH is fluctuating around 2800, not many want to push forward, but no one dares to short either.
After a wave of liquidations, the market enters a very typical phase: the main line is waiting for macro factors, while traffic first seeks stimulation.
You will find that when mainstream coins are stagnant, the market starts to become lively. Things like $RIVER , BYTE, and some small coins with AI+ narratives, when sentiment rises, it’s just one phrase: river, $我踏马来了 .
Is it familiar? During garbage time, it is often easiest to generate traffic, transactions, and sentiment.
#以太坊巨鲸异动