Looking at it over a cycle, BTC has fallen to around 72,000. The core contradiction is not in the price itself, but in the sequence of capital withdrawal: ETF outflows continue, and the prediction market significantly raises the probability of breaking 65,000, indicating that short-term capital is more concerned about withdrawal risks than long-term narratives. This segment mainly affects time, compressing what could have been a horizontal digestion process into a concentrated release.
ETH's relative resilience does not indicate strength, but rather a passive result after funds temporarily lose their offensive intent; mining stocks and high-beta assets have deeper declines, reflecting a synchronized contraction of cash flow and leverage.
