鬼谷研究院

[发] Accurate Market Analysis 2.13

Brothers, good morning. The market is still sluggish. How will the trend develop next?
From the ETF perspective, the inflow of funds is still not much. Recently, there was a bottom-fishing inflow in the past three days, and yesterday $270 million flowed out.
This week, the strong non-farm data from January completely closed the door on the possibility of interest rate cuts in March, even leading to a delay in the first rate cut expectation for the year, which is bearish.
At the same time, Chuanzi stated yesterday that he expected the U.S. and Iran to reach an agreement within the next month,
and issued an ultimatum, saying that if an agreement is not signed, action will be taken against Iran.
The situation is not optimistic!

From Chuanzi's political logic, starting a war is a highly risky gamble; if it happens, the approval ratings will decline.
Oil prices will rise, inflation will increase, and the Fed's hope for rate cuts will be dashed.
In the mid-term elections in November this year, the Republican Party will undoubtedly lose.
Even their family's Bitcoin business will be significantly impacted.

On the Iranian side, inflation has reached 60%, and the economy is collapsing.
If refusal to compromise leads to a full-scale war, the regime may collapse directly.
The Iranian authorities will verbally maintain the highest intensity of protests and threats,
but in action, they are likely to secretly convey acceptable proposals to the U.S.

Therefore, the probability of not going to war is 70%, and the probability of going to war is 30%.

One factor that may contribute to a market recovery is the peaceful resolution of the Iran issue within the next two months.

Before that, there will not be a significant rebound in BTC recently,
the lowest may fall to around $60000.

At 9:30 tonight, CPI will be released, and if it exceeds expectations, it may lead to another drop in BTC.

But in any case, we are very close to the bottom; the bear market should have completed half of its course.

🤔 Accurate Market Analysis 2.13

Good morning, brothers. The market is still sluggish; how will the trends develop next?
From the ETF perspective, the inflow of funds is still not much. In the recent last three days, there was an inflow for bottom fishing, and yesterday saw an outflow of $2.7 billion.
This week, the strong non-farm data from January has completely shut the door on interest rate cuts in March, even delaying expectations for the first rate cut of the year, bringing negative news.
Meanwhile, Chuanzi stated yesterday that the U.S. and Iran are expected to reach an agreement within the next month,
and issued an ultimatum, stating that if no agreement is signed, action will be taken against Iran.
The situation is not optimistic!

From Chuanzi's political logic, starting a war is a highly risky gamble; support rates will decline if a war is initiated.
Oil prices will rise, inflation will increase, and the Fed's interest rate cuts will be hopeless.
In the midterm elections this November, the Republican Party will undoubtedly lose.
The Bitcoin business of his own family will also suffer greatly.

On the Iranian side, inflation has reached 60%, and the economy is collapsing.
If refusal to compromise leads to a full-scale war, the regime could directly collapse.
The Iranian authorities will verbally maintain the highest intensity of protests and threats,
but in action, they are likely to secretly convey acceptable proposals to the U.S.

Therefore, the probability of not going to war is 70%, while the probability of going to war is 30%.

One factor for the market recovery going forward could be the peaceful resolution of the Iran issue within the next 2 months.

Before that, Bitcoin is unlikely to have a significant rebound,
and may drop to around $60000 at its lowest.

The CPI will be released at 9:30 tonight; if it exceeds expectations, it may lead to another drop in BTC.

But in any case, we are very close to the bottom; the bear market should have completed half of its process.

Good morning, brothers. The six major sects are attacking the Bright Summit. What should we do!!!!?? Protect the first sister

After experiencing last week's plunge,
will the future market plunge further or will it reverse?

This round of plunge has knocked down many investment experts,
Yili Hua has lost over $700 million (4.9 billion RMB), buying ETH above $3000,
all sold off around $2000.
Everyone will notice that after he sold, the market rebounded.
But we can't hold on, what if it continues to drop?
If it goes into liquidation, it will be a total loss, better to cut it now.

The future market still depends on macro trends

(1) Current interest rate cut expectations have fallen to freezing point
Most people believe the Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates in June
That's why last week's plunge occurred, so currently it's the worst situation, it can't get much worse than this
Therefore, we feel that BTC is close to the bottom now

(2) But be careful of a war causing another wave of decline
The U.S. aircraft carrier strike group has entered the position to launch strikes against Iran.
At the same time, the U.S. military continues to gather aircraft and ground-based air defense systems in the Middle East.
If the dialogue between the U.S. and Iran in Oman doesn't go well, they will go to war directly! Probability 40%.
So we must guard against another drop.
Chuanzi's approval rating has plummeted; if war breaks out, the Republican midterm elections will be doomed.
So the good news is that Chuanzi also doesn't want to fight.

(3) Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo led the Liberal Democratic Party to a great victory
Will adopt active fiscal measures to stimulate the economy,
In simple terms, it means to curb rising interest rates, the government will print more money,
which is beneficial for BTC and other risk assets.
Otherwise, if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates sharply, the funds profiting from arbitrage in the U.S. will flow back in large amounts, which will be detrimental to the cryptocurrency market.

Objectively speaking, BTC is close to the bottom now, which is still reliable.
Don't sell now, hold on for a rebound,
Once the Iran issue is settled, there will be a strong rebound.
This week's key focus
Non-farm payroll data will be released at 21:30 on Wednesday,
CPI data will be released at 21:30 on Friday.

After experiencing last week's plunge, will the future market crash or reverse?

This round of plummet has taken down many investment masters,
Yi Lihua's losses exceed $700 million (4.9 billion RMB), buying ETH all above $3000,
and cutting losses around $2000.
Everyone will notice that as soon as he finished cutting, the market rebounded.
But one must cut losses; what if it continues to fall?
A margin call would mean total destruction, so it's better to cut.

The future market still depends on the macro trend

(1) Current interest rate cut expectations have dropped to freezing point.
Most people believe the Federal Reserve won't cut rates in June
That's why last week's plunge occurred; currently, it's the worst situation, and it can't get much worse.
Thus, we feel that BTC is approaching the bottom

(2) But be cautious of a potential wave of declines caused by war.
The U.S. aircraft carrier strike group has entered the positions to strike Iran.
Meanwhile, the U.S. military continues to gather aircraft and ground-based air defense systems in the Middle East.
If the U.S. and Iran can't reach an agreement in Oman, it will lead to direct conflict! Probability 40%.
So prepare for another drop.
Trump's approval rating has significantly decreased; if war breaks out, the Republican midterm elections will be doomed.
So the good news is that Trump also doesn't want to fight.

(3) Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo leads the Liberal Democratic Party to a great victory
They will adopt active fiscal policies to stimulate the economy,
In simple terms, it means suppressing interest rate increases, the government will print more money,
which is beneficial for BTC and other risk assets.
Otherwise, if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates sharply, funds profiting from the U.S. will flow back domestically in large quantities, which will be bearish for the crypto market.

Objectively speaking, BTC is now approaching the bottom, which is still reliable.
Now is not the time to cut losses; hold on for a rebound,
Once the Iran issue is resolved, there will be a strong rebound.
This week's key focus
This Wednesday at 21:30, non-farm payroll data will be released,
This Friday at 21:30, CPI data will be released.

Recent Market Commentary

Many brothers have asked, can we still buy the dip now?

Conclusion: Yes, just wait for the K-line to flatten and buy Bitcoin in batches.

I cannot tell you when the bottom is,
but we can get infinitely close to the bottom.

If someone can tell you the exact bottom point, just block them directly.

Let's take a look at a few real cases recently:

1. China's Yi Lihua, heavily invested in Ethereum, lost 80% and cut losses, losing 700 million USD.

2. South Korea's Tom Lee, a Wharton School graduate with a Wall Street background, heavily invested in ETH, with an unrealized loss of 7.4 billion USD.

They have money, resources, and are smart,
but they also cannot predict where the bottom is, let alone us ordinary folks.

Please stop dreaming of getting rich quickly by buying the bottom at 75X leverage; the end of contracts only leads to liquidation.

The market will ultimately reward two types of people:
1️⃣ Those who can survive long enough
2️⃣ Those who can restrain their greed

Do not speculate on what the absolute bottom is,
what we can do is get closer to it continuously, rather than hitting it accurately.

If you truly believe Bitcoin has the potential to become digital gold, keep an eye on Web3.
Then you just need to buy Bitcoin in batches when the price drops, preparing to hold for 5 years or 10 years.

Do not use leverage, control your position, restrain your greed, and invest in batches!

You will outperform 99% of the market, slow is fast!

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$BNB B Don't be like a complaining woman over there, CZ! Some foolish people just can't see reality.
​Open your eyes and take a look, how many in the entire industry can do what he does, turning liquidity into an ocean? Bringing the government to stand on stage? The threshold is so high that you can't even touch your heels!
​To put it bluntly, attacking CZ is hitting everyone's rice bowl. This is not just stupid, it’s simply terrible! Without such top-tier big shots holding the fort, you trolls would still be playing in the mud.
​Admit it, this is a legendary existence, if you don't agree, hold it in!
​Thank you for reading this, wishing you a good morning☀️ good afternoon🥰 good night💤
$ETH

The market has rebounded, but will it continue to fall?

A couple of days ago, there was a waterfall effect, with hundreds of thousands of people getting liquidated.
Several big players and whales have lost everything,
with some losing billions of dollars, while others still have $8000 left.

Today, a good piece of news has surfaced:
High-ranking officials from the U.S. and Iran are preparing to resolve issues through negotiations,
and they will meet in Istanbul, Turkey, on Friday.
Last week, we were on the brink of war,

To calm the situation, Iran is likely willing to close or pause its nuclear program.
Therefore, our market analysis has emphasized in recent days,
that as long as the Iran issue can be resolved, BTC will see a rebound immediately.

Yesterday, it fell to the cost price of our micro strategy: $76000,
with the average cost of ETF funds being $90000.
At the current BTC price, there is definitely no risk in the long term.

Next comes the dollar-cost averaging or patiently holding.
BTC still has hope of returning to its peak in 2026; the issue is not significant.
Gold has plummeted, but it won't affect the continued rise, and it's easy to return above $5000.

Precise Market Analysis 2.2

Brothers, good morning, a new week has begun.
Last week, Waller was nominated as the chairman of the Federal Reserve and did not commit to interest rate cuts.
Gold plummeted, BTC crashed.
How should we operate this week?

What is our analysis of the market situation?

(1) Will there be another crash?
The possibility of a crash is low, with strong support around $77000.
However, we cannot rule out the possibility of ETF funds continuing to sell off, leading to a sustained decline.
In extreme cases, the lowest point for BTC may be around $70000.

(2) How do we view the future market?
Before the Iranian issue is resolved,
the market will experience fluctuations for the next 1-2 months, similar to the trends in March-April last year.
By around April, with the increase in employment due to the impact of AI,
and after the Iranian issue is resolved, the market will recover.

(3) How to operate currently?
Don't cut losses, while keeping some bullets to guard against a big drop.
Don't buy other currencies outside of BTC, ETH has also dropped significantly.
Be cautious of the possibility of war breaking out and another drop occurring.

This Friday, the January non-farm payroll report will be released, which is also a key point.
Don't use all your bullets, keep some for extreme situations.

Good afternoon, brothers. There has been a major drop, with 240,000 people liquidated.
There are several main reasons:

(1) The latest news shows that the U.S. aircraft carrier and its strike group have entered a full blackout and communication interruption status.
This move is typically seen as standard operating procedure before a significant military action, leading the market to speculate that actions against Iran are entering a highly sensitive phase.
Meanwhile, Iran's statements have clearly shifted to a state of military readiness.

(2) At the January FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%.

(3) Kevin Warsh has been appointed as the chairman of the Federal Reserve; he is not inclined to lower interest rates, adopting a hawkish stance, which has broken market expectations.

(4) Due to the first two reasons, combined with the recent significant increase in gold prices, gold has plummeted, and under the conditions of market panic, BTC has also dropped sharply.

What will happen next in the market?
Firstly, the market's expectations have already reflected in the prices, and the sharp drop has occurred, so there is no need to worry about the next plunge.
The previous support level for BTC is around $80000, with many whales having their costs far from the current level.
At the same time, if the Iran issue is resolved through negotiations, the market may see a reversal.
So there is no need to be too pessimistic; it is recommended not to sell at the bottom and to patiently observe.

Will gold trap you for 15 years?

The first gold crash was from June 1980 to 1982, where gold fell by 58.2% over 19 months.

The reason for the crash was the high interest rates maintained by the Federal Reserve and a decline in demand for safe-haven assets.

The second crash occurred from March to October 2008, with gold dropping by 29.5%.

This time, the global financial crisis led to a contraction in liquidity, and institutions rushed to sell assets for cash.

The third crash happened from 2012 to 2015, with gold falling by 39%.

This was due to all asset directions flooding into the housing and stock markets.

The fourth crash took place from July to December 2016, with a decline of 16.6%.

This was caused by expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

The reasons for the nearly 40 years of gold crashes can be boiled down to three main points:

First, expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Second, funds seeking better investment directions with higher yields.
Third, the emergence of a reservoir, similar to what happened in the housing market back then.

Do you think this time it will trap you as well?

@TermMaxFi

My boyfriend has an annual salary of 300,000.

When my dad asked for a gift of 280,000, he agreed without hesitation.

He also didn't hesitate to put my name on the marriage house.

But when I suggested managing the salary card, he suddenly changed his mind and said we weren't compatible and wanted to break up.

Hearing the words 'break up,' I was stunned.

He has put in so much for our future, why did he choose to withdraw at the last moment?

One hundred million financing??? What exactly is it?? Liangxi has returned to zero again 😂😂😂😂
What happened to zama that it has been going down like this??

Brothers, good morning. These past few days have reminded everyone to buy the dip.
Today the market welcomes a big rebound.
BTC stands above $89000,
Meanwhile, gold breaks through $5200.

Recently, the Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts, and the path to resuming cuts is still unclear.
At the same time, the U.S. military has initiated multi-day air exercises in the Middle East, and preparations for strikes against Iran have been reported to Israel.
In this situation, BTC has not crashed, indicating that things are beginning to change:
BTC is gradually beginning to achieve results on the road to becoming digital gold.

Currently, central banks and sovereign wealth funds around the world are shifting from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold,
Gold is now the second-largest currency,
but gold is not easy to carry, and there are issues with its high market value.
This will lead some large capital to gradually start positioning in BTC.

From on-chain data, BTC has plummeted from October to these three months,
The reserves in exchanges are decreasing.
So we are optimistic about BTC's market in 2026, which may rise to $150,000.

In any case, breaking new highs is not a problem.
The recent strategy is to buy BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, etc. on dips, waiting for a big surge.
Do not lose the bottom chips.
Dollar-cost averaging in BTC while waiting for a turning point, and playing with meme stocks with small funds.

Shock!!! Such a big event happened in the crypto world??

Brothers, good morning. Over the past few days, I've reminded everyone to buy the dip.
Today, the market welcomes a big rebound.
BTC stands above $89000,
Meanwhile, gold breaks through $5200.

Recently, the Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts, and the path to resuming cuts is still unclear. At the same time, the U.S. military has initiated a multi-day air exercise in the Middle East, and the progress of strikes against Iran has been communicated to Israel.
In this situation, BTC did not crash, which indicates that things are starting to change: BTC is gradually beginning to achieve results on the path to becoming digital gold.

Currently, central banks and sovereign wealth funds in various countries are shifting from U.S. debt to gold. Gold is now the second largest currency, but it is not easy to carry and has issues related to its high market value. This will lead some large capital to gradually lay out BTC.

From on-chain data, BTC has fallen sharply since October, and reserves in exchanges are declining over the past three months. Therefore, we are optimistic about BTC's market in 2026, which could rise to $150,000.

Anyway, breaking new highs is not a problem.
The recent strategy is to buy the dip in BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, etc., and wait for a big surge. Do not lose your bottom chips.
Invest regularly in BTC while waiting for a turnaround, and small funds can play with memes.

The second day of a new week, today gold and silver have surged across the board, is a bigger storm coming?

Gold has risen 15% so far this year, it's simply insane.
I reminded everyone to buy gold six months ago.
Last week I told everyone to get into gold, and now it has made over 10% profit.

In the midst of Trump's crazy antics,
we are now facing two major changes.

(1) Major Change
We might be on the brink of a third world war.

Recently, a US aircraft carrier has entered the range of Iran, and the clouds of war are thickening in the Middle East!
Various signs indicate that the US may take military action, and they have evacuated non-essential personnel from some regional bases.
Iranian officials claim that their armed forces are on full alert.
At the same time, the US government is reportedly considering implementing a maritime blockade on Cuban oil imports.

Previously, the US forcibly controlled Venezuela's leader Maduro, and Trump mentioned wanting to seize Greenland.
Last week, Trump insulted the rocket launcher sweeping Davos, and core allies were insulted in succession!
The Western alliance is starting to fracture.
Details of the first round of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine have been disclosed, and there is still no consensus on territorial issues.
Negotiations will continue a week later, and it is estimated that fighting will continue.

(2) Major Change
We are at the beginning of a global debt crisis.

The market is increasingly worried about the US government continuing to print money,
Trump's chosen Federal Reserve Chairman will continue to inject liquidity after taking office.
Latest data shows that the proportion of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen below 60%.
In this context, where will BTC go?

I feel somewhat optimistic; the trend is to fall first and then rise,
it reflects as such at the moment.
Gold is no longer moving, and some funds will be allocated to BTC.

Last week, ETFs kept flowing out, Coinbase exchange had a negative premium,
but BTC did not drop much, reflecting its resilience.
However, BTC's path to becoming digital gold will take some time; the road is winding.
From the perspective of a 1-2 year investment return rate, regular investment in BTC is a good choice.

Germany holds the second-largest national gold reserves in the world, second only to the United States.
Among them, about 164 billion euros worth of gold, weighing 1236 tons, is stored in New York.
Now they are uneasy and want to bring the gold back, but what if Trump doesn't allow it?
This is where BTC's advantages come into play: decentralization, no physical existence.

Recent strategy: Regularly invest in BTC and wait for a turning point.

Same day 🙋🏻‍♂️

$RIVER Waking up at 70, sent also finished at 0.30, the coins listed by Binance recently are very powerful, feeling great
The current market situation is confusing, what should be the next step?
Will there be a major crash? Now is the time to escape.
Or will there be a big surge? Is it appropriate to buy the dip now?

Last week, after issuing a bearish warning about the market, I reminded everyone to buy gold, target $5000
Now the gold price has risen to $4970, approaching the target price.
Partial profit-taking can be done, wait for the price to drop before buying again.

Currently, central banks around the world are continuously and massively absorbing physical gold, estimated to rise to around $6000 in 2026.
Chuanzi is still crazily causing events, verbally cooling down saying no fighting, but the US military aircraft carriers are quietly pressuring Iran.
There is still a possibility of action against Iran in the future; if it happens (probability 40%), BTC may drop by 5%.

We need to be prepared for a potential drop, no more buying altcoins, exchange the altcoins in hand for BTC or directly liquidate.
NATO officials stated that there has been a breakthrough on the Greenland issue,
The negotiation focus has shifted to broader security issues in the Arctic region, so the Greenland issue will not continue to cause a drop in the near future.

The Chuanzi family has been buying BTC at the bottom, there must be their reasons.
Every time Chuanzi creates bearish conditions, part of the reason may be to buy at the bottom for family interests, creating entry opportunities.
Additionally, BTC continues to flow out of exchanges, so bullish outlook for 2026.

But we need to wait until these issues are resolved before a large-scale rebound can occur:
(1) Resolution of the Iran issue, whether to strike or not, comes to a conclusion
(2) The next Chairman of the Federal Reserve will be announced soon, this person is likely to be favorable for interest rate cuts

Note to buy on dips, not on rises, consider sustainable dollar-cost averaging into BTC, and be careful not to buy altcoins
Wait for the market to rebound in February, with a chance to return to $100,000.

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