🤔 Accurate Market Analysis 2.13

Good morning, brothers. The market is still sluggish; how will the trends develop next?

From the ETF perspective, the inflow of funds is still not much. In the recent last three days, there was an inflow for bottom fishing, and yesterday saw an outflow of $2.7 billion.

This week, the strong non-farm data from January has completely shut the door on interest rate cuts in March, even delaying expectations for the first rate cut of the year, bringing negative news.

Meanwhile, Chuanzi stated yesterday that the U.S. and Iran are expected to reach an agreement within the next month,

and issued an ultimatum, stating that if no agreement is signed, action will be taken against Iran.

The situation is not optimistic!

From Chuanzi's political logic, starting a war is a highly risky gamble; support rates will decline if a war is initiated.

Oil prices will rise, inflation will increase, and the Fed's interest rate cuts will be hopeless.

In the midterm elections this November, the Republican Party will undoubtedly lose.

The Bitcoin business of his own family will also suffer greatly.

On the Iranian side, inflation has reached 60%, and the economy is collapsing.

If refusal to compromise leads to a full-scale war, the regime could directly collapse.

The Iranian authorities will verbally maintain the highest intensity of protests and threats,

but in action, they are likely to secretly convey acceptable proposals to the U.S.

Therefore, the probability of not going to war is 70%, while the probability of going to war is 30%.

One factor for the market recovery going forward could be the peaceful resolution of the Iran issue within the next 2 months.

Before that, Bitcoin is unlikely to have a significant rebound,

and may drop to around $60000 at its lowest.

The CPI will be released at 9:30 tonight; if it exceeds expectations, it may lead to another drop in BTC.

But in any case, we are very close to the bottom; the bear market should have completed half of its process.