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CPI Tonight Determines BTC Direction? Here's an Analysis of the Macro Data
The US CPI release on Friday, February 13 at 20:30 WIB has the potential to be a crucial moment for Bitcoin. After a prolonged period of pressure, many traders are waiting to see if this will be a turning point or instead trigger continued volatility.
Some recent data has indeed left the market “confused.” The NFP two days ago recorded 130K, above the expectation of 70K. However, the annual revision shows that the labor force level is much weaker. Monthly wage growth has increased, but annual growth has declined, a signal that isn't yet fully solid.
On the other hand, the previous month's Core CPI was at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, which is positive news for inflation. Retail sales tend to be sideways, while the PMI is indeed above 50, but the manufacturing sector is likely driven by seasonal effects, not strong expansion. The employment index is also still below 50.
If the CPI comes out slightly above consensus, the market could react mixed: the risk of a rate cut being delayed, but recession fears easing. If it comes in below expectations, the chances of a risk-on rally open up further. One thing is for sure: high volatility is almost unavoidable.
Follow macro updates & trading strategies only at Becoming a Trader. #menjaditrader #bitcoin #CPI #FOMC #marketupdate
NFA, DYOR.
The US CPI release on Friday, February 13 at 20:30 WIB has the potential to be a crucial moment for Bitcoin. After a prolonged period of pressure, many traders are waiting to see if this will be a turning point or instead trigger continued volatility.
Some recent data has indeed left the market “confused.” The NFP two days ago recorded 130K, above the expectation of 70K. However, the annual revision shows that the labor force level is much weaker. Monthly wage growth has increased, but annual growth has declined, a signal that isn't yet fully solid.
On the other hand, the previous month's Core CPI was at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, which is positive news for inflation. Retail sales tend to be sideways, while the PMI is indeed above 50, but the manufacturing sector is likely driven by seasonal effects, not strong expansion. The employment index is also still below 50.
If the CPI comes out slightly above consensus, the market could react mixed: the risk of a rate cut being delayed, but recession fears easing. If it comes in below expectations, the chances of a risk-on rally open up further. One thing is for sure: high volatility is almost unavoidable.
Follow macro updates & trading strategies only at Becoming a Trader. #menjaditrader #bitcoin #CPI #FOMC #marketupdate
NFA, DYOR.
Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin Will Fall to US$50 Thousand Before Rebounding
Standard Chartered estimates that Bitcoin (BTC) still has the potential to drop to US$50 thousand before starting a recovery phase. Head of Digital Asset Research Geoffrey Kendrick stated that this decline is likely to occur in the coming months, affected by the market volatility that has been felt since the fall last October.
Additional pressure comes from the outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs, where many investors are currently in the loss zone after buying at around US$90 thousand per BTC. Macroeconomic risks and uncertainty in monetary policy from the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, are also putting pressure on market sentiment.
Nevertheless, Standard Chartered is optimistic that BTC can rebound and targets the US$100 thousand area by the end of the year, if market conditions and institutional demand support it.
Keep up with daily crypto updates and trusted analysis only at Becoming a Trader. #becomingatrader #bitcoin #cryptonews #BTC #ETF
NFA, DYOR.
Standard Chartered estimates that Bitcoin (BTC) still has the potential to drop to US$50 thousand before starting a recovery phase. Head of Digital Asset Research Geoffrey Kendrick stated that this decline is likely to occur in the coming months, affected by the market volatility that has been felt since the fall last October.
Additional pressure comes from the outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs, where many investors are currently in the loss zone after buying at around US$90 thousand per BTC. Macroeconomic risks and uncertainty in monetary policy from the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, are also putting pressure on market sentiment.
Nevertheless, Standard Chartered is optimistic that BTC can rebound and targets the US$100 thousand area by the end of the year, if market conditions and institutional demand support it.
Keep up with daily crypto updates and trusted analysis only at Becoming a Trader. #becomingatrader #bitcoin #cryptonews #BTC #ETF
NFA, DYOR.
"Aren't you bored of always losing?"
Please answer?
Please answer?
BTC Insight
Bitcoin is currently in an uncomfortable phase.
Prices are moving wildly, technical structure is weakening, but on the other hand, institutional flows and regulations are becoming more solid.
What is happening?
1️⃣ Technical
Momentum is still dominated by sellers (negative MACD & widening).
Prices remain below important EMA → downtrend not invalidated.
Position near the lower Bollinger Band + high ATR → large volatility.
The $65,000 area is a psychological support currently being tested.
2️⃣ Institutional Flow
BTC fund conversion of ~$1 billion completed.
One major exchange increased holdings by ~$39 million. What does this mean? Smart money is not leaving — rather, accumulation continues.
3️⃣ Regulations Becoming Friendlier
Thailand allows BTC for derivative products.
Hong Kong accepts BTC as collateral.
The US Senate is discussing a bill to strengthen the leadership position of crypto. Regulatory clarity = long-term foundation becoming stronger.
4️⃣ Network Upgrade
BIP 360 officially merged. Focus: enhancing security, including future quantum risk mitigation.
But there is macro pressure
US economic data is weakening.
Unemployment claims are rising.
Risk of government shutdown → risk asset markets are also under pressure.
Divided Sentiment Some believe this is the phase before the “supercycle” of $150k–$250k.
Others are worried that a deeper correction is not over.
Personal conclusion: Short-term structure is still fragile.
Fundamentals & institutions remain strong.
The market is currently in a tug-of-war between macro pressure vs long-term accumulation.
The $65K level will be very decisive for the next direction.
Bitcoin is currently in an uncomfortable phase.
Prices are moving wildly, technical structure is weakening, but on the other hand, institutional flows and regulations are becoming more solid.
What is happening?
1️⃣ Technical
Momentum is still dominated by sellers (negative MACD & widening).
Prices remain below important EMA → downtrend not invalidated.
Position near the lower Bollinger Band + high ATR → large volatility.
The $65,000 area is a psychological support currently being tested.
2️⃣ Institutional Flow
BTC fund conversion of ~$1 billion completed.
One major exchange increased holdings by ~$39 million. What does this mean? Smart money is not leaving — rather, accumulation continues.
3️⃣ Regulations Becoming Friendlier
Thailand allows BTC for derivative products.
Hong Kong accepts BTC as collateral.
The US Senate is discussing a bill to strengthen the leadership position of crypto. Regulatory clarity = long-term foundation becoming stronger.
4️⃣ Network Upgrade
BIP 360 officially merged. Focus: enhancing security, including future quantum risk mitigation.
But there is macro pressure
US economic data is weakening.
Unemployment claims are rising.
Risk of government shutdown → risk asset markets are also under pressure.
Divided Sentiment Some believe this is the phase before the “supercycle” of $150k–$250k.
Others are worried that a deeper correction is not over.
Personal conclusion: Short-term structure is still fragile.
Fundamentals & institutions remain strong.
The market is currently in a tug-of-war between macro pressure vs long-term accumulation.
The $65K level will be very decisive for the next direction.
Praying for all my trader friends to always be healthy, to stay sane in the midst of a noisy market, to remain happy despite the fluctuating graphs, and to be strong in the harsh and sometimes cruel world of trading.
May we not only be strong during profits but also resilient during drawdowns.
Because what keeps us going is not just skill, but mental strength.
May we not only be strong during profits but also resilient during drawdowns.
Because what keeps us going is not just skill, but mental strength.
Crypto Rontok, Trump Family Still Profiting Rp23 Trillion
Amid a pressured crypto market and waves of liquidation hitting retail traders, the family of U.S. President Donald Trump has recorded a significant increase in wealth. Its value is said to reach around US$1.4 billion or equivalent to Rp23.5 trillion.
While many investors are facing losses and billions of dollars are leaving crypto ETFs, the crypto business owned by the Trump family is showing the opposite results. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, the family's wealth has surged since Trump took office as President again, even surpassing contributions from his real estate business.
One of the main contributors comes from the World Liberty Financial (WLFI) project. In the 16 months since its launch, this entity is reported to have generated at least US$1.2 billion in cash for the Trump family. From the WLFI token sale scheme, about 75% of the proceeds flow to entities affiliated with Trump, while the rest is distributed to the company's internal ranks.
This phenomenon highlights the sharp contrast between the sluggish crypto market conditions and the significant opportunities still available to players with the right business structure and positioning.
Follow crypto news updates and other sharp analyses only at Menjadi Trader. #menjaditrader #cryptonews #bitcoin #ETF #marketupdate
NFA, DYOR.
Amid a pressured crypto market and waves of liquidation hitting retail traders, the family of U.S. President Donald Trump has recorded a significant increase in wealth. Its value is said to reach around US$1.4 billion or equivalent to Rp23.5 trillion.
While many investors are facing losses and billions of dollars are leaving crypto ETFs, the crypto business owned by the Trump family is showing the opposite results. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, the family's wealth has surged since Trump took office as President again, even surpassing contributions from his real estate business.
One of the main contributors comes from the World Liberty Financial (WLFI) project. In the 16 months since its launch, this entity is reported to have generated at least US$1.2 billion in cash for the Trump family. From the WLFI token sale scheme, about 75% of the proceeds flow to entities affiliated with Trump, while the rest is distributed to the company's internal ranks.
This phenomenon highlights the sharp contrast between the sluggish crypto market conditions and the significant opportunities still available to players with the right business structure and positioning.
Follow crypto news updates and other sharp analyses only at Menjadi Trader. #menjaditrader #cryptonews #bitcoin #ETF #marketupdate
NFA, DYOR.
$WLD OUTLOOK
TIMEFRAME : 1 JAM
#CZAMAonBinanceSquare #USNFPBlowout #TrumpCanadaTariffsOverturned #USRetailSalesMissForecast
TIMEFRAME : 1 JAM
#CZAMAonBinanceSquare #USNFPBlowout #TrumpCanadaTariffsOverturned #USRetailSalesMissForecast
JPMorgan More Bullish 2026: BTC Approaching Equilibrium Point, Regulation Becomes Catalyst
JPMorgan has expressed a more optimistic view of the crypto market for 2026. The global investment bank assesses that the flow of institutional funds and the increasingly clear direction of regulation are the main foundations for the potential recovery of digital assets.
JPMorgan analyst, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, highlights that Bitcoin, which had dropped below the estimated production cost of around $77,000, is now starting to approach a new equilibrium point. The previous price pressure triggered a capitulation phase among high-cost miners, which has historically often been part of the natural market adjustment process.
As some miners exit the network, new supply tends to decrease, and the market enters a healthier consolidation phase in the medium to long term. JPMorgan also sees regulatory developments in the US becoming increasingly constructive, especially with discussions on legislation like the Clarity Act, which has the potential to provide stronger legal certainty for large investors.
If institutional flows continue to increase and regulations mature, 2026 could become the next important phase for the crypto cycle.
Follow macro updates and institutional insights only at Becoming a Trader. #becomingatrader #bitcoin #cryptonews #institutional #marketupdate
NFA, DYOR.
JPMorgan has expressed a more optimistic view of the crypto market for 2026. The global investment bank assesses that the flow of institutional funds and the increasingly clear direction of regulation are the main foundations for the potential recovery of digital assets.
JPMorgan analyst, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, highlights that Bitcoin, which had dropped below the estimated production cost of around $77,000, is now starting to approach a new equilibrium point. The previous price pressure triggered a capitulation phase among high-cost miners, which has historically often been part of the natural market adjustment process.
As some miners exit the network, new supply tends to decrease, and the market enters a healthier consolidation phase in the medium to long term. JPMorgan also sees regulatory developments in the US becoming increasingly constructive, especially with discussions on legislation like the Clarity Act, which has the potential to provide stronger legal certainty for large investors.
If institutional flows continue to increase and regulations mature, 2026 could become the next important phase for the crypto cycle.
Follow macro updates and institutional insights only at Becoming a Trader. #becomingatrader #bitcoin #cryptonews #institutional #marketupdate
NFA, DYOR.
Binance All-In to Bitcoin: SAFU Fund of $1 Billion Now Fully in BTC
Binance has officially converted the entire Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) amounting to approximately $1 billion into Bitcoin. This move was concluded with the latest purchase of 4,545 BTC, bringing the total SAFU reserves to 15,000 BTC with an estimated value of around $1.005 billion.
The SAFU fund itself was established after the hacking incident in 2019 that caused losses of around $40 million. Now, all of these reserves are stored in BTC and can be transparently verified through a public wallet address.
The accumulation process was conducted in stages, including the purchase of 4,225 BTC three days prior and 3,600 BTC a week ago. The last transfer was recorded on the blockchain on February 11 at 22:57 UTC. Binance also stated it would perform rebalancing if the fund value drops below $800 million.
This decision was made amid the correction of Bitcoin prices from $77,000 to $67,000, indicating Binance's commitment to user protection while also strengthening long-term exposure to BTC.
Follow updates on institutional movements and market analysis only at Becoming a Trader. #menjaditrader #bitcoin #binance #cryptonews #BTC
NFA, DYOR.
Binance has officially converted the entire Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) amounting to approximately $1 billion into Bitcoin. This move was concluded with the latest purchase of 4,545 BTC, bringing the total SAFU reserves to 15,000 BTC with an estimated value of around $1.005 billion.
The SAFU fund itself was established after the hacking incident in 2019 that caused losses of around $40 million. Now, all of these reserves are stored in BTC and can be transparently verified through a public wallet address.
The accumulation process was conducted in stages, including the purchase of 4,225 BTC three days prior and 3,600 BTC a week ago. The last transfer was recorded on the blockchain on February 11 at 22:57 UTC. Binance also stated it would perform rebalancing if the fund value drops below $800 million.
This decision was made amid the correction of Bitcoin prices from $77,000 to $67,000, indicating Binance's commitment to user protection while also strengthening long-term exposure to BTC.
Follow updates on institutional movements and market analysis only at Becoming a Trader. #menjaditrader #bitcoin #binance #cryptonews #BTC
NFA, DYOR.
Bitcoin Enters the 4-Year Cycle Correction Phase? This is What is Happening
Significant selling pressure in the Bitcoin market has reignited the debate over the validity of the 4-year cycle. Many analysts believe that the halving-based pattern remains the primary framework for reading BTC's long-term trends.
Historically, Bitcoin's movements tend to repeat: accumulation phase, post-halving rally, price euphoria, distribution, followed by correction and long consolidation before the next cycle begins. This pattern has appeared in several previous periods with similar characteristics.
However, the current conditions are not identical to the past. The presence of institutional ETFs, large fund flows, global interest rate policies, and cross-border regulations could accelerate or slow down each phase of the cycle.
The current sell-off raises an important question: is this a distribution phase leading to a deeper correction, or just a healthy retracement in a larger trend?
One thing to remember is that cycles are tools for assessing probabilities, not absolute predictions. Follow Becoming a Trader for sharp and structured crypto analysis updates #becomingatrader #bitcoin #cryptomarket #tradingcrypto #halving
NFA, DYOR.
Significant selling pressure in the Bitcoin market has reignited the debate over the validity of the 4-year cycle. Many analysts believe that the halving-based pattern remains the primary framework for reading BTC's long-term trends.
Historically, Bitcoin's movements tend to repeat: accumulation phase, post-halving rally, price euphoria, distribution, followed by correction and long consolidation before the next cycle begins. This pattern has appeared in several previous periods with similar characteristics.
However, the current conditions are not identical to the past. The presence of institutional ETFs, large fund flows, global interest rate policies, and cross-border regulations could accelerate or slow down each phase of the cycle.
The current sell-off raises an important question: is this a distribution phase leading to a deeper correction, or just a healthy retracement in a larger trend?
One thing to remember is that cycles are tools for assessing probabilities, not absolute predictions. Follow Becoming a Trader for sharp and structured crypto analysis updates #becomingatrader #bitcoin #cryptomarket #tradingcrypto #halving
NFA, DYOR.
The life cycle of a trader:
Leave for work → check position
Meal time → check position
Return from work → check position
After shower → check position
About to sleep → check position
Sometimes green, sometimes red.
But what happens most often? Losing social life 😩
Trading goes on,
but life feels like always on standby chart.
Leave for work → check position
Meal time → check position
Return from work → check position
After shower → check position
About to sleep → check position
Sometimes green, sometimes red.
But what happens most often? Losing social life 😩
Trading goes on,
but life feels like always on standby chart.
BTC Outlook
Bitcoin fell 1.14% in 24 hours, stuck at strong resistance at $70K. The market is still mixed signals: real macro pressure, but institutional and whale accumulation continues.
Key Overview
Macro factors & resistance at $70K limit upside.
Technical indicators show bearish pressure, liquidation is still occurring.
Institutions and whales continue to add positions, providing long-term support.
Positive Side
Institution Adoption: Danske Bank & Standard Chartered expand BTC ETP; BlackRock predicts Asia fund flows up to $2T.
Whale Accumulation: More than 100 large wallets (1,000–10,000 BTC) bought during the correction, signaling quiet buying interest.
Reversal Signals: 1-hour MACD bullish crossover → MACD line moves above the signal line, providing short-term rebound opportunities.
Risks Still Present
Key resistance at $70K reinforced by strong USD → limits rally.
Technical structure remains bearish: price below medium & long EMAs, recent liquidation of long positions worth $127 million.
Potential deeper correction: some analyses target $35K–$50K, consistent with distribution patterns and historical cycles.
Community Sentiment
Bearish dominance: discussions focus on selling pressure, significant liquidations, and challenges to break through $70K.
A small minority see this as strategic accumulation, but the majority remain cautious.
➡️ Conclusion: short-term still vulnerable, but institutional & whale accumulation maintains the foundation. Focus on risk management, don't get carried away by emotions.
Bitcoin fell 1.14% in 24 hours, stuck at strong resistance at $70K. The market is still mixed signals: real macro pressure, but institutional and whale accumulation continues.
Key Overview
Macro factors & resistance at $70K limit upside.
Technical indicators show bearish pressure, liquidation is still occurring.
Institutions and whales continue to add positions, providing long-term support.
Positive Side
Institution Adoption: Danske Bank & Standard Chartered expand BTC ETP; BlackRock predicts Asia fund flows up to $2T.
Whale Accumulation: More than 100 large wallets (1,000–10,000 BTC) bought during the correction, signaling quiet buying interest.
Reversal Signals: 1-hour MACD bullish crossover → MACD line moves above the signal line, providing short-term rebound opportunities.
Risks Still Present
Key resistance at $70K reinforced by strong USD → limits rally.
Technical structure remains bearish: price below medium & long EMAs, recent liquidation of long positions worth $127 million.
Potential deeper correction: some analyses target $35K–$50K, consistent with distribution patterns and historical cycles.
Community Sentiment
Bearish dominance: discussions focus on selling pressure, significant liquidations, and challenges to break through $70K.
A small minority see this as strategic accumulation, but the majority remain cautious.
➡️ Conclusion: short-term still vulnerable, but institutional & whale accumulation maintains the foundation. Focus on risk management, don't get carried away by emotions.
The more often you stare at the chart, the more you feel like clicking.
The longer you watch the market, the more "setups" suddenly appear to seem valid.
In fact, you were fine before.
Why is that…
The more you focus on the market, the harder it is to profit?
Is it because the market is changing?
Or because our emotions get triggered?
What if it's not a lack of analysis…
but too much observation leading to overthinking and overtrading? 👀
The longer you watch the market, the more "setups" suddenly appear to seem valid.
In fact, you were fine before.
Why is that…
The more you focus on the market, the harder it is to profit?
Is it because the market is changing?
Or because our emotions get triggered?
What if it's not a lack of analysis…
but too much observation leading to overthinking and overtrading? 👀
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