CPI Tonight Determines BTC Direction? Here's an Analysis of the Macro Data

The US CPI release on Friday, February 13 at 20:30 WIB has the potential to be a crucial moment for Bitcoin. After a prolonged period of pressure, many traders are waiting to see if this will be a turning point or instead trigger continued volatility.

Some recent data has indeed left the market “confused.” The NFP two days ago recorded 130K, above the expectation of 70K. However, the annual revision shows that the labor force level is much weaker. Monthly wage growth has increased, but annual growth has declined, a signal that isn't yet fully solid.

On the other hand, the previous month's Core CPI was at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, which is positive news for inflation. Retail sales tend to be sideways, while the PMI is indeed above 50, but the manufacturing sector is likely driven by seasonal effects, not strong expansion. The employment index is also still below 50.

If the CPI comes out slightly above consensus, the market could react mixed: the risk of a rate cut being delayed, but recession fears easing. If it comes in below expectations, the chances of a risk-on rally open up further. One thing is for sure: high volatility is almost unavoidable.

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NFA, DYOR.