董峰俊-财经博主

Bitcoin focuses on two points tonight
1: Support area above 106K, forming a double bottom below the door (if supported, it will return to the previous wide range oscillation, and may even usher in a new wave of increase)
2: Pressure at the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, if it cannot break through, the downward trend will continue, and there is a high probability of a big coin below 100K with a 9 in the first digit)

The author personally leans towards the latter, breaking below 100K, a big coin with a 9 in the first digit
$BTC #加密市场回调

A year has passed in the blink of an eye; a year in the cryptocurrency world goes by really fast. Looking back at this year's market trends, it first continuously rose in a bull market from around 70000, soaring to 126000. At that time, many illusions appeared, with major capital, influencers, and institutions predicting it would rise to 150000–200000. As a result, after reaching 126000, it quickly retraced and fell back to the starting point, or even lower.

Currently, the key question is where the bottom of this bear market lies? I believe most friends are already waiting to buy at the bottom, but this is absolutely not the time to do so; we need to continue to wait patiently.

4-hour structure: After the last continuous decline, there was a small rebound from overselling, followed by continued consolidation below 70000. The overall trend still maintains a bearish outlook, with the Bollinger Bands continuing to open slightly downwards, the rebound strength is weak, and the volatile market is expected to continue.

Thoughts:
The main direction remains bearish, with small cycles focusing on high short and low long positions, taking short-term points to get through this consolidation phase.

Bitcoin: Short at around 68500 during the rebound, long at around 65800 during the pullback.
Ethereum: Short at around 2020 during the rebound, long at around 1890 during the pullback #CZ币安广场AMA #易理华割肉清仓 #黄金白银反弹 #美国伊朗对峙 #美国零售数据逊预期 $BTC $ETH

Currently, the market seems to be in a sideways consolidation, but in reality, it's a correction in a downtrend. The bulls appear to be resisting, but in fact, it's just a weak rebound after an oversold condition, lacking any sustained momentum to push higher. Each high followed by a pullback, each upper shadow, is telling you: there is heavy selling pressure above, and the main force has no intention of lifting prices, only seizing the opportunity to unload.

The closing of the Bollinger Bands is not a reversal signal, but rather a buildup before a change in trend. Once it opens downwards again, the new round of decline will be more decisive and rapid than the previous one. The repeated tests of 72000 have shown that this level has become a stronghold for bears; as long as it doesn't effectively stabilize and break through 74000, any rebound is merely an opportunity for the bears.

Many people shout 'bottom' and 'reversal' upon seeing a rebound, essentially comforting themselves after being heavily trapped. A true bottom is never guessed; it is formed through declines and grinding. Currently, whether it's volume, structure, or market sentiment, none of the conditions are suitable for bottoming out. The position of 59800 is just a temporary low point, not the end of a bear market; a subsequent drop below it is merely a matter of time.

In terms of operations, we still insist on following the trend and only shorting, not going long:
When rebounding to the 72000—72800 range, decisively short, with an initial target of 68000; if broken, continue to look down at 66800 and 65000, with a mid-term target aimed directly below 60000.

A reminder: the deadliest thing in a bear market is trying to catch a bottom halfway up the slope. It is better to miss the rebound than to go against the trend; when the trend is downward, rebounds are traps, and the decline is the main theme.
#美国伊朗对峙 #何时抄底？ #BTC何时反弹？ #小非农数据不及预期 #以太坊L2如何发展？ $BTC $ETH

Currently, the market seems to be in a sideways consolidation, but in reality, it's a correction in a downtrend. The bulls appear to be resisting, but in fact, it's just a weak rebound after an oversold condition, lacking any sustained momentum to push higher. Each high followed by a pullback, each upper shadow, is telling you: there is heavy selling pressure above, and the main force has no intention of lifting prices, only seizing the opportunity to unload.

The closing of the Bollinger Bands is not a reversal signal, but rather a buildup before a change in trend. Once it opens downwards again, the new round of decline will be more decisive and rapid than the previous one. The repeated tests of 72000 have shown that this level has become a stronghold for bears; as long as it doesn't effectively stabilize and break through 74000, any rebound is merely an opportunity for the bears.

Many people shout 'bottom' and 'reversal' upon seeing a rebound, essentially comforting themselves after being heavily trapped. A true bottom is never guessed; it is formed through declines and grinding. Currently, whether it's volume, structure, or market sentiment, none of the conditions are suitable for bottoming out. The position of 59800 is just a temporary low point, not the end of a bear market; a subsequent drop below it is merely a matter of time.

In terms of operations, we still insist on following the trend and only shorting, not going long:
When rebounding to the 72000—72800 range, decisively short, with an initial target of 68000; if broken, continue to look down at 66800 and 65000, with a mid-term target aimed directly below 60000.

A reminder: the deadliest thing in a bear market is trying to catch a bottom halfway up the slope. It is better to miss the rebound than to go against the trend; when the trend is downward, rebounds are traps, and the decline is the main theme.
#美国伊朗对峙 #何时抄底？ #BTC何时反弹？ #小非农数据不及预期 #以太坊L2如何发展？ $BTC $ETH

Please tell me loudly

Am I the first person on the internet to see 1800?

Currently, 1800 has arrived, but there seems to be no signs of stopping the decline
#BTC何时反弹？ #小非农数据不及预期 #BTC市场影响分析 #美国政府部分停摆结束 #美国伊朗对峙 $BTC $ETH

The early morning ultimately broke below 74000

This confirmed the previous bearish outlook

However, the short position has not exited yet and is still being held

I am preparing to hold until the 60s, wish me luck, brothers
#美国伊朗对峙 #Strategy增持比特币 #V神卖币 #BTC走势分析 $BTC $ETH

I never expected the breaking plunge to happen on a weekend; the downward trend has begun. The support around 74000 below is uncertain if it can hold before the new year. The internal adjustments of the Federal Reserve have a particularly significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. Friends who want to buy at the bottom should wait a bit longer; now is not the time. Let's wait for the bottom to build and give a reversal signal before discussing it.

The support area for Ethereum, which is expected to form a bottom, is around 1800, so keep an eye on it.
#美国政府停摆 #美联储维持利率不变 #下任美联储主席会是谁？ #贵金属巨震 #美国伊朗对峙 $BTC $ETH

The large pancake at 70000 tested, but did not achieve a very effective rebound, so breaking 70000 has become an inevitable trend, and Ethereum at 2000 is the same. The bearish signals that were continuously indicated earlier have been validated, which can be described as a stroke of genius #小非农数据不及预期 #美国政府部分停摆结束 #美国伊朗对峙 #特朗普称坚定支持加密货币

The 70000 threshold has been reached, and a drop is inevitable, remember not to catch the bottom

The 2000 threshold of Ethereum is also precarious, right in front of us #小非农数据不及预期 #美国伊朗对峙 #美国政府部分停摆结束 #特朗普称坚定支持加密货币 #xAI招聘加密专家 $BTC $ETH

The 4-hour level trend of the big pancake shows a one-sided cliff-like decline, with a daily drop of over 5%, reaching a low of below 72000, once again refreshing the new low for the phase, and the short positions continue to release momentum, spreading panic in the market.

From a technical indicator perspective, the Bollinger Bands are all opening downward, with prices running closely along the lower band, and the middle band has become a strong resistance level, unable to touch it during rebounds; the MACD indicator shows a double line death cross downward, with green bars continuously increasing, indicating that short momentum has not diminished; the KDJ indicator's three lines are all below 20, in the oversold range, and the J value has no obvious rebound signal after hitting the bottom, indicating that although there is overselling in the short term, the short trend has not changed, and the rebound is merely a technical correction.

The key support level of 740000 has been broken, accompanied by a volume increase in the decline, which is an effective break, and there is no obvious strong support below, opening up further downward space.

The short-term moving averages at the 4-hour level are all diverging downward, with prices continuously under pressure below the moving averages, and every rebound meets resistance from the moving averages, making the signal to short during rebounds clear.

Panic sentiment in the market is spreading, with consecutive short-term declines piercing through the psychological defense line of the market. The previous buying positions at 78000 and 76000 have all been trapped, and the bullish positions are continuously being sold off, forming a negative cycle of decline - being trapped - stop-loss - further decline. The overall correlation in the cryptocurrency space is weakening, with mainstream coins like Ethereum falling in sync, and Bitcoin, as the leader, leading the decline, driving the overall market weaker.

In the short term, although Bitcoin has a technical rebound after being oversold, the height of the rebound is limited. It is highly likely to encounter resistance in the 73000-74000 range before continuing to decline, with the 70000 level becoming a key psychological defense line. Once it breaks, it will accelerate the drop to 68000 or even lower positions. In the medium term, if it cannot recover the key pressure level of 76000, the short trend will continue, with the 65000-68000 range being the core medium-term decline target.

Currently, the short trend of Bitcoin has formed, with a resonance of three signals: break, indicators, and funds. The core idea is to persist in shorting during rebounds and follow the trend. Strictly control positions and stop-losses, do not bottom fish or hold positions, and closely follow the short rhythm to seize profit opportunities in the downward market.

Short at the 73500-74000 range, targeting around 70000.
#美国伊朗对峙 #美国政府部分停摆结束 #特朗普称坚定支持加密货币 #V神卖币 $BTC $ETH

From the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin once again broke through key support, dipping below 73000, refreshing recent lows and perfectly validating the previous prediction that 74500 was definitely not the bottom.

Prices continue to be under pressure below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and short-term moving averages. The Bollinger Bands are diverging downwards, with a clear bearish channel. The rebound touches the middle band and then faces pressure to fall back, showing no effective stabilization signals.

The MACD remains below the zero axis. Although there is a slight golden cross, the red bar momentum is weak, merely a technical repair after an oversold condition and not a trend reversal signal. The KDJ three lines are in the middle-low range, with limited rebound strength and no formation of a strong upward attack pattern; overall, it still leans bearish.

Bitcoin has been in a continuous downtrend, with lows constantly refreshing and rebound highs gradually lowering, a standard bearish trend structure. Any counter-trend bottom-fishing behavior faces significant risks.

Bitcoin is probing new lows again, thoroughly validating the bearish trend. The short-term rebound is merely a technical repair and not a reversal signal. In terms of operation, one should continue to adhere to a bearish stance based on key resistance levels to lay out short positions.

Short Bitcoin when it rebounds to the 77000-77500 range, targeting 74000-73000.

Short Ethereum when it rebounds to the 2300-2330 range, targeting 2100-2060.
#美国伊朗对峙 #Strategy增持比特币 #BTC走势分析 #V神卖币 $BTC $ETH

The early morning ultimately broke below 74000

This confirmed the previous bearish outlook

However, the short position has not exited yet and is still being held

I am preparing to hold until the 60s, wish me luck, brothers
#美国伊朗对峙 #Strategy增持比特币 #V神卖币 #BTC走势分析 $BTC $ETH

From the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin once again broke through key support, dipping below 73000, refreshing recent lows and perfectly validating the previous prediction that 74500 was definitely not the bottom.

Prices continue to be under pressure below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and short-term moving averages. The Bollinger Bands are diverging downwards, with a clear bearish channel. The rebound touches the middle band and then faces pressure to fall back, showing no effective stabilization signals.

The MACD remains below the zero axis. Although there is a slight golden cross, the red bar momentum is weak, merely a technical repair after an oversold condition and not a trend reversal signal. The KDJ three lines are in the middle-low range, with limited rebound strength and no formation of a strong upward attack pattern; overall, it still leans bearish.

Bitcoin has been in a continuous downtrend, with lows constantly refreshing and rebound highs gradually lowering, a standard bearish trend structure. Any counter-trend bottom-fishing behavior faces significant risks.

Bitcoin is probing new lows again, thoroughly validating the bearish trend. The short-term rebound is merely a technical repair and not a reversal signal. In terms of operation, one should continue to adhere to a bearish stance based on key resistance levels to lay out short positions.

Short Bitcoin when it rebounds to the 77000-77500 range, targeting 74000-73000.

Short Ethereum when it rebounds to the 2300-2330 range, targeting 2100-2060.
#美国伊朗对峙 #Strategy增持比特币 #BTC走势分析 #V神卖币 $BTC $ETH

I have decided, I will hold on until 74000 and then say
#比特币ETF净流入流出 #美国政府停摆 #贵金属巨震 #美联储维持利率不变

4-hour structure chart, Bollinger Band middle track pressure, two consecutive doji stars have appeared, there is significant pressure above, rebound strength is weak, and there is still considerable space below. The main bearish outlook remains, and the negative news continues. 74500 is definitely not the bottom of this wave, it's still too early to catch the bottom.

Short near 79300 for Bitcoin, target 75000-74000.

Short Ethereum at 2360-2390, target 2260-2230.
#Strategy增持比特币 #加密市场回调 #贵金属巨震 $BTC $ETH #BTC何时反弹？

4-hour structure chart, Bollinger Band middle track pressure, two consecutive doji stars have appeared, there is significant pressure above, rebound strength is weak, and there is still considerable space below. The main bearish outlook remains, and the negative news continues. 74500 is definitely not the bottom of this wave, it's still too early to catch the bottom.

Short near 79300 for Bitcoin, target 75000-74000.

Short Ethereum at 2360-2390, target 2260-2230.
#Strategy增持比特币 #加密市场回调 #贵金属巨震 $BTC $ETH #BTC何时反弹？