Currently, the market seems to be in a sideways consolidation, but in reality, it's a correction in a downtrend. The bulls appear to be resisting, but in fact, it's just a weak rebound after an oversold condition, lacking any sustained momentum to push higher. Each high followed by a pullback, each upper shadow, is telling you: there is heavy selling pressure above, and the main force has no intention of lifting prices, only seizing the opportunity to unload.
The closing of the Bollinger Bands is not a reversal signal, but rather a buildup before a change in trend. Once it opens downwards again, the new round of decline will be more decisive and rapid than the previous one. The repeated tests of 72000 have shown that this level has become a stronghold for bears; as long as it doesn't effectively stabilize and break through 74000, any rebound is merely an opportunity for the bears.
Many people shout 'bottom' and 'reversal' upon seeing a rebound, essentially comforting themselves after being heavily trapped. A true bottom is never guessed; it is formed through declines and grinding. Currently, whether it's volume, structure, or market sentiment, none of the conditions are suitable for bottoming out. The position of 59800 is just a temporary low point, not the end of a bear market; a subsequent drop below it is merely a matter of time.
In terms of operations, we still insist on following the trend and only shorting, not going long:
When rebounding to the 72000—72800 range, decisively short, with an initial target of 68000; if broken, continue to look down at 66800 and 65000, with a mid-term target aimed directly below 60000.
A reminder: the deadliest thing in a bear market is trying to catch a bottom halfway up the slope. It is better to miss the rebound than to go against the trend; when the trend is downward, rebounds are traps, and the decline is the main theme.
