Before predicting what comes next, let’s look at what already played out.
Bitcoin peaked near 126K and later dropped to around 60K, marking roughly a 52% correction.
At the same time, ETH peaked near 4,950 and fell to roughly 1,750, a decline of about 65%.
So ETH didn’t just follow Bitcoin — it moved harder, roughly 1.2–1.3x more volatile, largely due to leverage, liquidations, and panic selling.
A large portion of ETH’s pain may already have happened.
Now the real question isn’t whether ETH can go lower — but under what conditions and from which level.
Let’s assume this scenario:
Bitcoin loses 60K support and gradually falls toward 48K, implying roughly another 20% downside.
ETH’s reaction will depend on where price sits when BTC makes that move.
Scenario 1 — ETH recovers first (most realistic)
If ETH rebounds toward 2,300–2,400 before BTC drops again, then applying the same volatility relationship:
A 20% BTC decline could mean roughly 24–26% downside for ETH.
That puts ETH roughly at:
• 2,400 → ~1,800
• 2,300 → ~1,700
This would represent fear returning, but not full panic — more of a controlled correction.
Scenario 2 — ETH remains weak near 1,900–2,000
In this case, there’s less cushion.
Liquidations start sooner, and confidence is already fragile.
A BTC drop toward 48K could push ETH into the 1,500–1,400 zone, with possible quick downside wicks as leverage gets flushed again.
Not necessarily structural weakness — just forced selling.
Scenario 3 — Full market panic (low probability, high impact)
This would require:
• BTC losing 48K rapidly
• Macro or liquidity shock
• Broad risk-off conditions
Only then do we start talking about 1,100–1,200 panic wicks, likely brief but emotional moves designed to force capitulation.
Maximum fear, minimum time.
What many traders miss
ETH may have already completed its first major panic leg when it dropped to 1,750.
Second legs are often:
• Slower
• Less violent
• More selective
Which is why risk management matters more than prediction.
Honest takeaway
ETH below 1,500 likely requires BTC still trending lower.
ETH below 1,300 probably needs true panic — not just social media fear.
Overleveraged traders rarely survive these phases.
Patient spot investors usually do.
Markets don’t reward confidence.
They reward discipline.
If BTC really revisits 48K, where do you think ETH finds strong buyers?
1,400? 1,200? Or lower?
Serious perspectives welcome 👇
