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This is the Bitcoin Situation for the Next 3 Years

Since last August I warned that the $108,000 level could not be lost in Bitcoin or else we entered a bearish cycle and it was going to be hard.

I am not a guru nor do I have a crystal ball.

But I try to get informed and I dedicate a lot of time to understanding what a Halving is. I understand mining costs. I understand staking. I understand leverage.

But above all we need to understand how all this leads us to CYCLES.

This chart is very powerful for understanding Bitcoin.

Each line is a cycle since its Halving. This event happens every 4 years.

The first cycle (the blue one) made the high somewhat earlier but the following cycles have made their highs at the same moment. All the lows have happened one year after reaching this high.

This last cycle (the strong yellow one) looks smaller and this is not a coincidence. Notice that each cycle is smaller than the previous one.

And this makes sense.

Bitcoin cycles are INFLATIONARY AND LOGARITHMIC.

Inflationary and logarithmic?

This is vital. Let me translate it for you.

Bitcoin should follow inflation because it is a finite asset like gold or real estate in certain areas.

Easy but logarithmic?

This is something you can't IGNORE anymore.

🤔 Bitcoin cycles go up less every time.

One reason is that the more an asset capitalizes the more it costs to keep it going up. Money in the world is finite and therefore when something capitalizes billions it starts to be complicated to make it grow in a faster rate than inflation.

But you must also know that in the Halvings the rewards to miners are reduced.

At the beginning this meant a beastly reduction of many BTCs which drove the price very high. But now the reward is barely reduced by 3 or 1 BTC so the price cannot rise at the same pace.

If we pay attention to previous cycles Bitcoin will keep falling in 2026 until the end of the year before starting a recovery. This is the most likely scenario right now.

So much for Bitcoin theory so let us go to the practical part.

🚀 Where will this low happen?

I do not know and nobody knows but we have clues.

In each of the cycles we have seen the price retreat from highs.

And a lot.

The first cycle down 85%
The second down 80%
The third down 75%

And now?

Maybe 70%? It could be. It is just an approximation.

This last drop to $60,000 is already a great milestone as the price has corrected 50% but in previous cycles we see that the best is still to come. It can fall another 50% down to $30k or $40k to meet the levels close to 70% correction which would seem plausible based on previous behavior.

In terms of price it seems there is a gap to fill and in terms of time it is even better.

Correction time of first cycle is 12 months
Correction time of second cycle is 12 months
Correction time of third cycle is 12 months

If this fourth cycle lasts the same as the previous ones we will be talking about seeing the moment of maximum pain in October 2026.

That is the moment where we will all say that $BTC is going to 0.

Who knows.

But, if we start accumulating in the $60k zone and save some money for the $30-40k area, we could easily average a $50k position during 2026.

After three years we should be at the next cycle peak which following a logarithmic progression could be somewhat higher than these last $120k (current cycle peak).

Let us assume $150k. (Which is a number I get from the serie of previous rallies, but there is too much math for today)

We are talking about selling the investment for triple the price in 3 years. That is a return that is not bad at all.

The risk is total. I go without a Stop Loss. It is aspirational investment and in no case is it capital protection.

And while we wait for the price to reach the right zone to keep buying, you could also make a quick trade to catch the next 10% rally.

👇 WANT MORE?

🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic

XRP has lost approximately 7% of its value this week, continuing to trend under bearish pressure. Although the cryptocurrency has significantly declined over the past six weeks, analysts remain optimistic about a potential rebound. 
With a current value of $1.36, target-focused XRP users get $1,360 for 1,000 XRP tokens. Most of these users are curious about how much those tokens will be worth by the end of Q1 2026. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that AI models appear more optimistic than human analysts, with most predicting higher short-term targets.
Derivatives and Spot Flows Signal Caution

XRP derivatives data reflects a completed leverage cycle. Open interest expanded sharply in late Q4 as price surged. Subsequently, declining open interest followed rising volatility. Hence, forced liquidations and position closures reduced speculative exposure. Despite occasional price stability, leverage conviction continued to fade.
Recently, open interest stabilized at lower levels. This shift suggests leverage excess has cleared. Consequently, the market now favors consolidation rather than aggressive directional bets.

Spot flow data supports this cautious tone. Net outflows dominated recent months, indicating ongoing distribution pressure. Moreover, red flow sessions intensified during price declines. Brief inflow spikes appeared occasionally. However, they failed to alter the broader trend. Hence, spot demand remains limited, reinforcing the bearish structure.
Q1 2026 XRP Price Forecast Scenarios
Most cryptocurrency analysts, including AI algorithms, have identified bullish, base, and bearish scenarios for XRP in Q1 2026. The bullish outcome would see XRP return above $3.0, assuming spot XRP ETF inflows continue to increase and the U.S. lawmakers pass the CLARITY Act. 
CryptoRank AI predicts an optimistic $4.40 target for XRP by the end of March 2026, implying that 1,000 XRP tokens will be worth $4,400 by that time. In the meantime, most human-based crypto analysis platforms, such as CoinDCX and LiteFinance, remain within the $2.40 to $2.60 XRP price range for Q1 2026. The basis for their prediction is on moderate institutional interest and the steady growth of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin. For this category, holding 1,000 XRP tokens by the end of Q1 2026 will give between $2,400 and $2,600.
Meanwhile, less optimistic users remain cautious, noting that weakening ETF demand or persistent macroeconomic headwinds could increase pressure on XRP, causing it to trade within the $1.45-$1.52 price range, therefore equating 1,000 XRP to between $1,450 and $1,520.
Key Drivers for XRP Price in Q1 2026

Amid the varying predictions and the potential outcomes for XRP, it is worth noting that the critical drivers behind the cryptocurrency’s price development include ETF momentum, supply squeeze, banking option, and macroeconomic developments. 
XRP ETFs have absorbed an impressive $1.23 billion in total inflows since launching in late 2025. Analysts believe the cryptocurrency will rally higher if spot XRP ETF products sustain a steady monthly inflow of $300 million. Meanwhile, most users believe a continued tightening of supply, similar to the 2025 scenario, when exchange balances dropped by 57%, will trigger a spike in XRP’s price.
In the meantime, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse projects the XRP blockchain will capture roughly 14% of SWIFT’s transaction volume within five years. Garlinghouse’s comment has boosted bullish sentiment around XRP, representing a major demand driver for the digital asset.
$XRP #xrp #TrendingTopic

Bitcoin’s double-digit rebound and brief trading above $72,000 may confirm $60,000 was the bottom, but data shows top traders are refusing to open longs.
Key takeaways:
The Bitcoin long-to-short indicator at Binance hit a 30-day low, signaling a sharp decline in bullish leverage demand.US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds reversed a negative trend with $516 million in net inflows following a period of heavy liquidations.
$BTC $67,507  has fluctuated within a tight 8% range over the last four days, consolidating near $69,000 after an abrupt slide to $60,130 on Friday. Traders are currently grappling with the primary catalysts for this correction, particularly as the S&P 500 holds near record highs and gold prices have climbed 20% over a two-month period.
The uncertainty following the 52% retreat from Bitcoin’s $126,220 all-time high in October 2025 has likely prompted an ultra-skeptical stance among top traders, stoking concerns of further price declines.

Whales and market makers on Binance have steadily pared back bullish exposure since Wednesday. This shift is reflected in the long-to-short ratio, which dropped to 1.20 from 1.93. This reading represents a 30-day low for the exchange, suggesting that demand for leveraged long positions in margin and futures markets has cooled, even with BTC hitting 15-month lows.
Meanwhile, the long-to-short ratio for top traders at OKX hit 1.7 on Tuesday, a sharp reversal from its 4.3 peak on Thursday. This transition aligns with a $1 billion liquidation event in leveraged bullish BTC futures, where market participants were forced to close positions due to inadequate margin. Importantly, this specific data point reflects forced exits rather than a deliberate directional bet on further downside.
Strong ETF demand suggests Bitcoin whales are still bullish
Demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) serves as strong evidence that whales haven’t flipped bearish, despite recent price weakness.

Since Friday, US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $516 million in net inflows, reversing a trend from the previous three trading days. Consequently, the conditions that triggered the $2.2 billion in net outflows from Jan. 27 to Feb. 5 appear to have faded. A leading theory for that pressure pointed to an Asian fund that collapsed after leveraging ETF options positions via cheap Japanese yen funding.
Franklin Bi, a general partner at Pantera Capital, argued that a non-crypto-native trading company is the most likely culprit. He noted that a broader cross-asset margin unwind coincided with sharp corrections in metals. For instance, silver faced a staggering 45% decline in the seven days ending Feb. 5, erasing two months of gains. However, official data has yet to be released to validate this thesis.
The Bitcoin options market followed a similar trajectory, with a spike in neutral-to-bearish strategies on Thursday. Traders pivoted after Bitcoin’s price slipped below $72,000 rather than anticipating worsening conditions.

The BTC options premium put-to-call ratio at Deribit surged to 3.1 on Thursday, heavily favoring put (sell) instruments, though the indicator has since retreated to 1.7. Overall, the past two weeks have been marked by low demand for bullish positioning through BTC derivatives. While sentiment has worsened, lower leverage provides a healthier setup for sustainable price gains once the tide turns.
It remains unclear what could shift investor perception back toward Bitcoin, as core values like censorship resistance and strict monetary policy stay unchanged. The weak demand for Bitcoin derivatives should not be interpreted as a lack of confidence. Instead, it represents a surge in uncertainty until it becomes clear that exchanges and market makers were unaffected by the price crash.
Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed sentiment indicator fell to its lowest ever level, leading some analysts to suggest that $60,000 was the bottom for BTC. Does historical data agree?
Key takeaways:
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to a record low of 7, showing extreme fear in the market.More than $5.5 billion in short liquidations above current prices may fuel a rebound.Weak price trends and rising derivatives selling may still drag Bitcoin below $60,000.
Sentiment and liquidation suggest $60,000 remains support
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin is flashing sentiment readings that have previously marked market bottoms. According to Van De Poppe, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index had dropped to 5 over the weekend (final recorded reading is 7), its lowest reading in history, while the daily relative strength index (RSI) for BTC has fallen to 15, signaling deeply oversold conditions.

These levels were last seen during the 2018 bear market and the March 2020 COVID-19 crash. Van de Poppe said such conditions may allow BTC to recover and avoid an immediate retest of the $60,000 level.
CoinGlass data adds to the bullish case. Bitcoin’s liquidation heatmap shows over $5.45 billion in cumulative short liquidations positioned if the price moves roughly $10,000 higher, compared with $2.4 billion in liquidations on a retest of $60,000.
This imbalance suggests that an upward move may trigger forced shorts covering, leading to a BTC rally.

BTC structural weakness keeps downside risks in focus
Data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin trading below its 50-day moving average near $87,000, while further below the 200-day moving average around $102,000. This wide gap reflects a corrective or “repricing” phase following the prior rally.

CryptoQuant’s Price Z-Score is also negative at -1.6, indicating BTC is trading below its statistical mean, a sign of selling pressure and trend exhaustion. Such conditions have preceded extended base-building rather than immediate rebounds.
Crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted a growing selling dominance in the derivatives markets. Monthly net taker volume has turned sharply negative at -$272 million on Sunday, while Binance’s taker buy-sell ratio has slipped below 1, signaling a strong selling pressure.
With futures volumes outweighing spot flows at the moment, stronger spot demand is needed to trigger a bullish reaction from BTC.
Adding a longer-term caution, Bitcoin investor Jelle noted that past Bitcoin bear market bottoms formed below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. For the current cycle, that level sits near $57,000, with deeper downside scenarios extending toward $42,000 if history repeats.

#BTC #bitcoin #fear&greed #TrendingTopic

Key points:
Bitcoin is trading in a key historical zone, but buyer pressure is too weak to break resistance.Analysis sees the current range resistance potentially lingering for months.February BTC price downside has almost beaten 2025.
Analysis: Bitcoin bulls too weak to crack $69,000
Data from TradingView put daily BTC price losses at nearly 3% after the $70,000 area again provided weak support.

Still facing bottom predictions of $50,000 or lower, BTC/USD offered traders little reason to flip bullish.
Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, noted the importance of the current narrow trading range.
“$BTC continues to show signs of weakness around $69k, however, if you look back to 202,4 you will notice that price spent an extraordinary amount of time consolidating in this range,” he wrote in one of his latest posts on X. 
“That 8 months of consolidation, coupled with the 2021 Top created structural strength at this level, and it's good to see the market acknowledging that.”

The significance of $69,000 means that it could act as a double-edged sword in the future.
“If a bullish catalyst emerges and triggers a recovery, we can conclude that the additional consolidation in this range, fortified structural support,” Alan continued. 
“Likewise, if the downtrend extends from here as history (and the charts) suggests, resistance at this range will be even stronger than it was in 2024. That doesn't mean it will be impenetrable, it just means that it's going to take a lot of momentum to break it. At this moment in time, we aren't seeing enough momentum to do that in a sustainable way.”
BTC price eyes biggest February loss since 2014
Mondays have been particularly lucrative for short positions since Bitcoin began breaking down from all-time highs in October 2025.

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that at -14.4%, Bitcoin’s February losses in 2026 are almost on par with last year’s performance. Still, since 2013, February has only ended in the red three times.

$BTC #BTC #TrendingTopic

Be Machi Big Brother:
- teenage years spent obsessed with hip-hop and American culture
- forms L.A. Boyz in 1991 with his brother and cousin
- becomes one of the first Mandarin rap groups ever
- sells hundreds of thousands of albums, tours Asia, appears in LA Times
late 90s:
- launches MACHI Entertainment under Warner Music
- produces for Jay Chou and Jolin Tsai
2000s: turns to tech
- founds TheOne Technology Group and merges it in a $60M deal
- by 2015 launches 17Live, Asia’s top live-stream app
- IPO plans in New York fail after investor disputes
- sells his shares and looks for the next
2017: discovers crypto
- launches Mithril (MITH), a “social mining” project that pays users in tokens
- raises $13M but price collapses 80% within months
- joins Formosa Financial as advisor, raises 44,000 ETH (~$37M)
- 22,000 ETH later disappear from the treasury, never recovered
2020: enters DeFi
- forks Compound and creates Cream Finance
- protocol suffers multiple exploits, $192M+ drained
- launches a wave of forks: Mith Cash, Wifey Finance, Typhoon Cash
- most die within weeks
2021-2023: goes all-in on NFTs
- becomes one of the biggest BAYC whales
- holds more than 200 apes, worth over $9M
- later dumps 1,000+ NFTs in two days, crashing floor prices
- community calls it “the Machi dump”
2022: ZachXBT publishes investigation
- accuses him of scamming 22,000 ETH and running over ten failed projects
- Machi sues for defamation in Texas
- the case ends quietly after edits to the article
2024: launches memecoin Boba Oppa on Solana
- raises over $40M from presale hype
- price falls 74% in a month
- blamed for another “soft rug”
2025: trades aggressively on Hyperliquid
- opens 15–25x longs on ETH, PUMP, and HYPE
- loses over $53M in a few months
#WhaleDeRiskETH #TrendingTopic