Trading_Squad

Bitcoin recently hit an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025, followed by a significant correction. The price has dropped roughly 47-50% from that peak and is currently trading in the mid-$60,000s (around $65,000–$68,000 range based on recent data from sources like Yahoo Finance, CoinMarketCap, and others).
This aligns with post-halving bear phases seen in prior cycles, where drawdowns of 50-80%+ have occurred after peaks.
The author argues BTC could dump further to $35,000 soon, but current market levels and volatility suggest the immediate sharp crash to that level in just 10 days appears overstated or already partially priced in—though deeper lows remain possible in the broader bear phase.
Time Axis: Historical Days from ATH to Cycle Low Post-Halving
The framework uses days from all-time high (ATH) to the major cycle low after each halving:
2012 halving cycle: ~406 days
2016: ~363 days
2020: ~376 days
2024 halving cycle: Still unfolding
These are fairly consistent (average ~382 days). Applying this to the 2025 ATH in October places the highest-probability window for a major bottom around October–November 2026. This is a reasonable historical parallel—many analysts note Bitcoin's four-year cycles often see bear markets lasting 1–1.5 years post-peak, with potential lows in late 2026 before the next bull run.
Price Axis and Entry Strategy
The author emphasizes focusing on both time and price, rather than price alone, to avoid missing entries:
Started accumulating in the $60,000 zone (which BTC has now entered and tested multiple times recently).
Views sub-$60,000 as strong value buys, regardless of exact timing.
In the October–November 2026 window, plans to buy aggressively no matter the price.
This dual-axis approach is pragmatic—historical data shows waiting for "perfect" bottoms often leads to missed recoveries, while time-based anchors help avoid chasing highs.
NUPL Indicator
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), an on-chain metric, has historically signaled true bottoms when deeply negative (capitulation, e.g., 2018, 2020 COVID crash, 2022). Recent data shows NUPL around 0.18 (as of early February 2026), or in some reports near 0.1—still positive or neutral territory, far from the "blue zone" of heavy unrealized losses (~ -0.2 or lower) that marked prior cycle lows. This supports the view that the market isn't fully capitulated yet, leaving room for further downside.

Bottom Target and Plan
The author's ultimate target is $45,000–$50,000 by end-2026, where they'd go heavy. This fits within some analyst forecasts for 2026 lows (predictions range from $50,000–$75,000 in bearish scenarios, with others seeing stabilization higher). The plan:
Time trigger — Strong buy in Oct–Nov 2026, price irrelevant.
Price trigger — Strong buy below $60,000, time irrelevant.
Execution involves consistent buys (e.g., large daily amounts) when conditions hit.
Overall Takeaway
This is a disciplined, cycle-aware strategy blending historical timing with value-based entries and on-chain signals like NUPL. While the near-term $35,000 call seems aggressive given current ~$66,000 levels and no immediate catalyst for such a crash, the longer-term bear market outlook (potential deeper lows into late 2026) aligns with diminishing post-halving returns and macro pressures. The market remains volatile—past cycles show these phases pass, but preparation (dollar-cost averaging on dips, patience for time windows) is key. Stick to a plan over reacting to noise.
Buy $BTC 👇