The CryptoPedian

By: The_CryptoPedian | Series: Macro Moves.
Today, December 10, 2025, marks the final major macro event of the year. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision, and while the market has priced in an 88% probability of a 25 basis point cut, the real volatility will come from the forward guidance provided by Jerome Powell.
For crypto investors, "consensus" can often be a trap. To navigate the volatility, we need to look beyond the headline number. Here are the four extrapolated scenarios for today and how to position yourself across BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB.
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The 4 Extrapolated Scenarios
1. Super Bullish: The Dovish Pivot (Probability: 15%)
The Trigger: Fed cuts 25bps and Powell signals an aggressive cutting cycle for Q1 2026 to support the labor market.The Outcome: The Dollar Index (DXY) collapses. Risk-on assets go vertical.Target: Bitcoin clears the psychological $100,000 barrier immediately; altcoins begin a manic "moon" phase.
2. Bullish: The Expected Ease (Probability: 60%)
The Trigger: Fed cuts 25bps. Powell maintains a balanced tone—inflation is cooling, but rates will normalize slowly.The Outcome: A "buy the rumor, hold the news" event. No massive spike, but a steady grind upward.Target: Bitcoin consolidates above $92k and slowly tests $95k. Capital rotates into strong L1s like ETH and SOL.
3. Bearish: The Hawkish Cut (Probability: 20%)
The Trigger: Fed cuts 25bps but Powell strikes a warning tone, suggesting this is the last cut for several months due to sticky inflation.The Outcome: A classic "Sell the News" event. Algo-traders dump positions on the lack of future liquidity promises.Target: Bitcoin flushes leverage down to $85k–$88k. High-beta alts (SOL, memes) drop 10-15%.
4. Super Bearish: The Pause (Probability: 5%)
The Trigger: Fed shocks the market with 0bps cut (a pause), citing overheated asset prices.The Outcome: Immediate liquidation cascade.Target: Bitcoin retests $78k support. Market sentiment flips to extreme fear.
Strategic Moves for the "Big Four"
Regardless of the scenario, your strategy should be asset-specific. Here is how to play the majors:
Bitcoin (BTC): The Breakout Watch
Bitcoin is currently coiled near $92k. The play here is patience.
The Move: Do not short the breakout. If we get Scenario 1, $100k will likely act as a magnet. If we get Scenario 3 (Hawkish Cut), look to bid aggressively at the $88,000 support level. This is a long-term accumulation zone.
Ethereum (ETH): The Beta Play
Following the recent "Fusaka" upgrade, Ethereum has shown renewed strength against Bitcoin.
The Move: If the Fed is dovish, ETH will likely outperform BTC in percentage gains. Target a move to $3,800. ETH acts as a safer beta play than SOL right now—offering upside with slightly less downside risk if the market chops.
Solana (SOL): The Volatility Engine
Solana remains the trader’s favorite for volatility. It is currently compressing around $135.
The Move: Treat SOL as a scalp. If Powell sounds hawkish, SOL will be the first to dump—place stop-losses tight. However, in a Super Bullish scenario, SOL has the clearest path to $160+. Only trade this if you are monitoring the charts live.
BNB: The Defensive Hedge
While the market focuses on speculation, BNB benefits from the ecosystem activity.
The Move: If you are uncertain about the Fed's tone, rotate into BNB. It typically bleeds less than other alts during downturns due to its utility and burn mechanics. Furthermore, high volatility usually leads to high trading volumes, which ultimately benefits the BNB Chain ecosystem.
Final Word
The initial candle at 2:00 PM ET is often a fakeout. The true trend is established during the press conference at 2:30 PM ET. Keep your leverage low and your eyes on the DXY.
See you in the trenches.

اقتصاد المبدعين في البلوكتشين؟ غالبًا ما يكون أكثر ضجيجًا من الجوهر. كـ The Cryptopedian، لقد رأيت كل شيء - DeFi، حروب سولانا، وعود فارغة. مهمتي: العثور على مشاريع تقوم فعليًا بالتحول.
Thrust.com، منصة جديدة لأسواق رأس المال للمنشئين على أساس سولانا (CCM)، لفتت انتباهي. وعدها: إصلاح نموذج العملة الشهيرة المكسور. لا مزيد من الاحتيالات، لا مزيد من سحب البساط.
ذهبت إلى العمل بشكل عملي. أودعت 1 SOL، قمت ببعض المبادلات، اشتريت رمزهم الأول. ماذا وجدت؟ ليس فقط تقنية رائعة، ولكن لمسة إنسانية. تحول حقيقي لعالم العرض، والمعجبين، ورأس المال المرمّز.