prafulka

The latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reveals that the US dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.32% in Q2 2025, sparking discussions about the greenback’s dominance in global finance.
Exchange Rate Effect — The Main Driver
Crucially, nearly 92% of the decline was due to exchange rate fluctuations, not actual buying or selling of US dollar reserves by central banks. This suggests that the fall reflects valuation effects, rather than a large-scale shift away from the dollar.
Adjusted vs. Unadjusted Figures
If exchange rates were kept constant, the dollar’s share would have only dipped slightly — to around 57.67%. This highlights how raw data can be misleading, as it exaggerates the impression of declining dollar dominance.
Dollar Index Under Pressure
The weakness in reserves aligns with broader market trends. The US dollar index fell more than 10% in the first half of 2025, marking its steepest drop since 1973. The depreciation continued significantly through Q2, magnifying valuation impacts on global reserve data.
Euro and Other Currencies
The euro’s share in global reserves appeared to rise from 20.00% to 21.13%, but this increase was largely influenced by exchange rate valuation effects. Similar distortions were observed in other currencies, including the British pound.
Implications and Challenges
The data underscores the importance of analyzing exchange rate effects when assessing reserve composition. While the raw numbers may suggest the dollar is rapidly losing ground, adjusted figures indicate the decline is less dramatic.
Central banks appear not to be making major shifts in their portfolios, but the report highlights a key vulnerability: the dollar’s global role remains sensitive to currency volatility.

✅ Takeaway:

The US dollar’s global reserve share has dipped, but the fall is driven mainly by currency swings rather than structural shifts in central bank holdings. The greenback remains dominant — though its position looks increasingly vulnerable to exchange rate shocks.

Market volatility is inevitable. Prices rise and fall sharply, often testing investor patience and discipline. In such times, emotions can take over — leading to costly decisions. Here are five common mistakes investors must avoid during volatile markets:
1. Panic Selling
Selling stocks immediately after a market drop locks in losses. Instead of reacting emotionally, investors should evaluate fundamentals and stay invested with a long-term perspective.
2. Trying to Time the Market
Attempting to predict the “perfect entry or exit point” often results in missed opportunities. Consistent investing usually outperforms risky timing strategies.
3. Ignoring Asset Allocation
Putting all money into one asset class increases risk. A well-diversified portfolio across equities, debt, gold, and other assets helps manage uncertainty.
4. Stopping SIPs (Systematic Investment Plans)
Halting SIPs during market downturns means losing the benefit of rupee cost averaging and compounding. Continuing SIPs in volatile phases often delivers better long-term returns.
5. Losing Sight of Long-Term Goals
Focusing only on short-term fluctuations makes investors forget their bigger financial objectives. Aligning investments with long-term goals helps maintain discipline and confidence.

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Heavy Decline in Precious Metals
After touching record highs, both gold and silver witnessed a sharp correction on October 3rd, signaling profit-booking and cautious investor sentiment.
Gold Prices on MCX
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold dropped by ₹673, settling at ₹1,16,915 per 10 grams.
Major Fall in Silver
Silver faced an even steeper decline of ₹2,149, with prices falling to ₹1,42,571 per kilogram.
International Market Trends
Global trends also reflected weakness. Spot gold slipped 0.78% to trade at $3,840 per ounce, tracking the broader correction in international bullion markets.
Retail Gold Rates in India
The fall was also visible in retail markets.
24 Carat Gold (Tanishq website): ₹1,19,130 per 10 grams (down from ₹1,19,670)22 Carat Gold: ₹1,09,200 per 10 grams (down from ₹1,09,700)
City-Wise Prices (Examples)
Delhi: 22K – ₹1,08,963 ; 24K – ₹1,18,853Mumbai: 22K – ₹1,08,817 ; 24K – ₹1,18,707
(Other major cities also reported similar corrections.)
Reasons and Investor Outlook
The sharp pullback comes amid market stabilization and mixed investor sentiment. Many traders are exercising caution, waiting for clearer signals before making fresh investments in precious metals.

✅ Summary:

After record-breaking highs, gold and silver prices corrected sharply in both domestic and international markets. While short-term volatility persists, investor behavior suggests a cautious approach until market clarity improves.

ماذا يعني الإغلاق؟
يحدث "إغلاق الحكومة" في الولايات المتحدة عندما يفشل المشرعون في تمرير ميزانية اتحادية. في مثل هذه الحالات، يتم إجبار عدة دوائر حكومية وخدمات على تعليق العمليات حتى يتم التوصل إلى اتفاق تمويل.
الإغلاقات في التاريخ
على مدى السنوات الـ 45 الماضية، واجهت الولايات المتحدة عدة عمليات إغلاق. كل حلقة جلبت عدم اليقين للاقتصاد والأسواق المالية، مما زعزع ثقة المستثمرين.
زيادة عدم اليقين ومخاوف الركود
خلال الإغلاق، يتم تأخير أو إيقاف إصدار البيانات الاقتصادية الرئيسية. هذا النقص في الشفافية يزيد من ارتباك السوق، مما يغذي المخاوف من تباطؤ اقتصادي أو حتى ركود.

📆 ساري اعتباراً من 1 أكتوبر 2025، أعلن الرئيس الأمريكي السابق دونالد ترامب عن فرض رسوم جمركية بنسبة 100% على جميع المنتجات الصيدلانية ذات العلامات التجارية أو المحمية ببراءة اختراع، ما لم تكن الشركة المصنعة تقوم بنشاط ببناء مرافق إنتاجها في الولايات المتحدة.

"إذا لم تكن تصنعها في أمريكا، فأنت تدفع الثمن،"

أعلن ترامب في بيان حملته في وقت متأخر من الليل.
🔬 ما الذي يتم استهدافه؟
ستؤثر هذه الرسوم الجديدة بشكل مباشر على:
الأدوية الموصوفة ذات العلامات التجارية / المحمية ببراءة اختراع
الواردات الصيدلانية ذات الهامش المرتفع من أوروبا والهند والصين

🚨 التحركات الرئيسية (تدخل حيز التنفيذ في 1 أكتوبر):
100% رسوم على الأدوية المصنعة (ما لم تكن مصنوعة في الولايات المتحدة)

30% رسوم على الأثاث المنجد

25% رسوم على الشاحنات الثقيلة
رسوم جديدة
على خزائن المطبخ، وأحواض الحمام & المزيد
📰 الأسواق تتفاعل بسرعة:
أسهم الأدوية تغرق عالميًا
تقلبات الأسهم تزداد
خطر الركود يضيء باللون الأحمر
خوف من تصاعد الحروب التجارية الانتقامية
المتداولون يعيدون توازن محافظهم إلى الأصول الصلبة

₿ انفجار البيتكوين أو انفجار الأسعار؟مع تجاوز البيتكوين بالفعل 100K دولار، هل يمكن أن تدفع التقلبات الناتجة عن الرسوم إلى الوصول به إلى 120K–150K دولار؟

The latest economic data from the United States indicates a stronger-than-expected performance in both GDP growth and the labor market.
Initial Jobless Claims Beat Expectations
The US initial jobless claims came in at 218,000, lower than both the forecast of 233,000 and the previous week's 231,000. This suggests that the labor market remains robust, with fewer layoffs than expected. A resilient job market often signals continued consumer spending, which is a critical driver of economic growth.

Q2 GDP Surpasses Forecast
US Q2 GDP growth was reported at 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.3% and marking an improvement over previous quarters. This stronger growth reflects healthy economic activity, boosted by consumer spending, business investment, and ongoing recovery in various sectors.
Market Implications
The combination of low jobless claims and higher-than-expected GDP indicates a strong US economy. For financial markets, this has several implications:
The US Dollar (USD) may strengthen due to economic resilience.
Equities could experience mixed reactions, depending on investor expectations of future interest rate policy.
Gold and other safe-haven assets might face downward pressure as confidence in the economy grows.
Conclusion
Overall, the US economy shows both solid growth and a resilient labor market, signaling that expansion remains on track. Investors and policymakers will continue to monitor upcoming economic data for clues on inflation and potential monetary policy adjustments.