In a bear market, the key is to take your time. Unlike bull markets, where reversals happen quickly, bearish phases last for months and don't end abruptly.
Looking at the bigger picture, rather than just daily fluctuations, the picture remains weak. Despite some positive ETF days, the cumulative net flow over the last 10 trading days remains negative (around -18,000 BTC). This means there's no sustainable demand yet.
A reversal doesn't start with a single strong day, but with a systematic return of capital to the market. Until that happens, upward movements look more like noise within a bear market.
BTC has been in its current drawdown for over four months, having lost more than 50% from its October peak. This isn't unique by BTC standards. But when a drawdown exceeds 100 days, history shows that recovery usually takes months, and sometimes years, not weeks.
Many influencers feel the same but are very scared to post this. I think crypto market finally deserves some fresh air to breath.
- Indicators and oscillators are oversold - Sales are gradually decreasing, while purchases are increasing (spot) - Meanwhile, the crowd started opening shorts - Huge profile volumes are spotted near $64,000 - $65,000 support - Stocks are dumping, while crypto is staying strong - Fear&Greed Index is 5 (meme argument but still)
As the result, I expect to see some local growth towards $72,000 resistance and probably even $76,000 (if the previous one is broken up) and then dump continuation.
🙅♂️ SETUP INVALIDATION: Breakdown of the $64,000 support level. In this case we will go straight short down to $52,000 zone.
That’s exactly why I didn’t enter a BTC position on the bounce everyone saw. For me, it’s important to see a retest of the 74,500 level, followed by confirmation and consolidation — only then would I consider building a position, if we hold that level.
The market is very manipulative right now, so we need to look for higher-confidence setups.
Watch the 74,500 level closely for confirmation. If you decide to enter from there, keep your stop-loss within 1%.
Strict risk management is essential right now.$BTC #BTCcrash"
Bitcoin has reached a point of 32.6 on RSI. This happened only 5 times in modern history:
- Nov 2018: $BTC dumped to $3,100, then pumped to $13,000 - Mar 2020: dumped to $3,800, then pumped to $63,000 - June 2022: dumped to $17,500, then pumped to $25,000 - Aug 2022: dumped to $17,500, then pumped to $23,000 - Nov 2022: dumped to $15,000, then pumped to $125,000
And.. now — February 2026. What conclusions can we draw from this? The crypto market is already extremely oversold, taking into account Bitcoin dumped only 40% from ATH. Previous times it required at least 70% dump from the top. The market is maturing.
🍋 The bounce is coming, not sure it will happen from current points though. We may dive deeper at first , but may pump straight from here as well. So, opening short position right here is a bad idea — wait for the trigger. The overall trend remains bearish.$BTC