Abdul Wahid Jamshaid

$BTC
Crypto Twitter lost its mind after October 6th — declaring a cycle top, calling for 84% crashes, and shouting “bear market confirmed.”
Except… the math says otherwise. Catastrophically otherwise.
Every model that nailed previous tops to the day? Completely silent.
The Pi Cycle, which triggered within days in three prior runs, hasn’t even blinked — still dormant at $114K, with its signal threshold sitting far higher at $205K.
MVRV Z-Score? Only 2.06 — far below the 5.0 euphoria level that marked every prior top.
Supply in profit stands at 83.6%.
Puell Multiple? 0.95 — classic undervaluation territory.
These aren’t broken indicators. They’re saying the same thing in unison: mid-cycle consolidation, while influencers are busy calling tops.
What Broke the Pattern
Institutions did.
Over $64 billion flowed into ETFs this year — absorbed by BlackRock, Fidelity, and corporate treasuries. Every whale dump was quietly bought up. When retail ruled cycles, emotion drove price. Now, settlement flows do.
Bitcoin’s correlation to M2 money supply — once 0.8 — has flipped negative (-0.18) in 2025.
Meanwhile, its correlation to gold exploded to 0.85.
Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset — it’s a hedge.
The halving-driven four-year rhythm lost meaning the moment Wall Street entered with billions in daily liquidity.
Data shows an 0.82 correlation between institutional inflows and price stability — proof that macro absorption now drives volatility.
A 2017-style 80% crash would now require institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity dumping collateral simultaneously — a macro meltdown, not a chart pattern.
The New Market Physics
November 7th flipped six straight days of $660M outflows into $240M of inflows within 24 hours.
Institutional wallets remain 99.5% unshaken, holding through volatility that would’ve nuked retail in older cycles.
The old rulebook said cycles end when sentiment peaks.
The new rule: cycles end when inflows reverse — when ETF outflows exceed $2B weekly and a recession hits.
Neither condition exists right now.
The Data-Backed Outlook
Fidelity models a 65% probability of Bitcoin rising 50–100% by Q4 2026 — not based on hype, but on supply and flow data that never existed before.
Here’s how the next phase breaks down:
Evolved Bull (65%) – Inflows stay above $5B weekly → BTC targets $150K–$200K by late 2026
Bear Reversion (25%) – Macro shock sparks $2B+ weekly outflows → BTC revisits sub-$80K
Range Consolidation (10%) – Flat flows, DXY > 110 → BTC ranges $100K–$130K
What Would Invalidate This?
Sustained ETF outflows > $2B weekly for four straight weeks, or
Traditional indicators flipping bearish despite $5B+ inflows
Until then, the verdict is clear:
The 4-year Bitcoin cycle didn’t end — it evolved beyond recognition. Retail emotion lost control to institutional mechanics.
Time-based models broke the moment absorption dynamics took over.
Position accordingly — or watch from the sidelines.
#Binance #bitcoin #news #Ethereum #UpdateAlert

$TRUMP

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has entered uncharted territory. This isn’t politics anymore — it’s systemic decay.
What we’re witnessing isn’t just Washington gridlock; it’s the erosion of trust in the very idea of government stability.

This is exactly why Bitcoin exists — a network that doesn’t shut down, furlough workers, or wait for Congress to pass a budget. Decentralization isn’t a buzzword. It’s survival.

$BTC
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⚠️ THE COLLAPSE IN MOTION

42 million Americans — one in eight — are about to lose access to food assistance.

750,000 federal workers are unpaid and forced to choose between rent and groceries.

5,000 daily flight cancellations expected next week as unpaid air traffic controllers hit breaking point.

TSA sick calls tripled — not because of illness, but because staff are working second jobs to feed families.


The lights are flickering in America’s most essential systems — transportation, food, safety.

$ETH
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📉 THE ECONOMY IS IN FREE-FALL

$15 billion in GDP lost every week — $2.1 billion evaporating daily.

$10 billion in SNAP benefits halted — 42 million people lose food access.

$400 billion in tax refunds frozen, stripping consumer spending from Q1.

FDA food inspections suspended — food safety risks rising unseen.



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⏳ DAY 60: THE POINT OF NO RETURN

Missed mortgage payments turn into foreclosures.

SNAP ends completely — hunger becomes visible.

Airports collapse — the aviation network grinds to a halt.

The recession isn’t coming — it’s here.



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💥 THE UNDENIABLE TRUTH

It will all end when air traffic controllers walk out together — grounding flights and forcing action. Insiders are already warning: when even 30% don’t show, the entire U.S. air system breaks in 24 hours.


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🧠 WHY BITCOIN MATTERS

Your food relies on unpaid inspectors.
Your safety depends on unpaid agents.
Your money? Frozen by bureaucracy.

But Bitcoin keeps running — block after block, without permission, politics, or pause.
When trust in fiat dissolves, the world turns to what cannot be switched off.


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Day 37.
The system isn’t paused — it’s unraveling.
And while governments print, delay, and decay...
Bitcoin doesn’t scream. It simply keeps working.

تم تحقيق الربح الكامل عبر جميع المراكز القصيرة - ونعم، هذا هو بالضبط السبب الذي أدى إلى انهيار السوق. لقد توقعنا ذلك قبل معظم الناس، استنادًا إلى بيانات ماكرو وبيانات سلسلة الكتل النظيفة.

🧭 الإعداد

على مدار أسابيع، كنت متشائمًا بشكل علني. كانت بيانات تدفق ETF وتدفقات العملات المستقرة الضعيفة تومض علامات تحذيرية مبكرة - وكل ذلك قمت بتفصيله في سلاسل سابقة.
خلال هذه الحركة، قمت بالتداول مباشرة - قصيرًا $BTC ، $ETH ، وعدة عملات بديلة من الأعلى إلى الأسفل عبر قناتي المجانية على تيليجرام.

اليوم، لقد أغلقت رسميًا جميع المراكز القصيرة المتبقية، بما في ذلك تداولات العملات البديلة. إليك كيف تسير الأمور الآن:

$XRP
The wait is nearly over. Tomorrow in New York City, Ripple takes the spotlight at Swell 2025, and the global finance, policy, and crypto worlds are watching closely. This isn’t just another conference—it’s shaping up to be a defining moment for digital assets and institutional finance.

🔹 The Big Event

📅 Swell 2025 runs November 4–5, with a welcome reception already underway.
The focus? Tokenization, stablecoins, payments, regulation, and real-world adoption — all areas where Ripple has been building momentum. For XRP holders, this event is seen as a milestone moment.

🔹 Institutional & Policy Power

This year’s lineup includes heavyweights from BlackRock, Nasdaq, BNY Mellon, Citi, and even the White House’s Digital Assets Council. The message is clear: regulatory clarity and institutional adoption may finally be converging.

🔹 Real Use Cases Take Center Stage

Ripple’s sessions highlight tangible progress, not hype:

“Stablecoins and Blockchain: Revolutionizing Cross-Border Payments”

“The Evolution of Digital Asset Investment: Exploring Crypto ETFs and On-Chain Funds”

A live Ripple product demo that could hint at new integrations or partnerships.


🔹 Why XRP Holders Should Care

Ripple directly called on the XRP community through its X (Twitter) account—fueling speculation that something significant could drop. Whether it’s new partnerships, product rollouts, or regulatory developments, the impact could reshape XRP’s narrative.

🔹 Market Mood

XRP slipped 7–8% ahead of the event — possibly a pre-announcement sell-off. Analysts suggest any major reveal could trigger a short-term bounce, while silence may push prices lower.

🔹 Key Things to Watch

1️⃣ New Ripple product updates or launches
2️⃣ Regulatory or institutional policy insights
3️⃣ Tokenization or commercial adoption frameworks

Tomorrow, all eyes turn to New York. The stage is set.
Ripple’s ready. The world—and every XRP holder—is about to find out what comes next.
#Ripple #MarketPullback #defi #Web3 #Finance

وفقًا لتوقعات بولي ماركت الجديدة، قد يمتد إغلاق الحكومة الفيدرالية الأمريكية الآن حتى عيد الشكر ويدخل في 1 ديسمبر، مما يمثل فترة تمتد لـ 61 يومًا - تقريبًا ضعف الرقم القياسي السابق.
$ETH
في غضون ذلك، تواجه إدارة الطيران الفيدرالية (FAA) انهيارًا كبيرًا في عدد الموظفين، مع غياب أكثر من 3,000 مراقب جوي عن الجدول. الوضع يضغط بسرعة على شبكة الطيران الأمريكية بأكملها.

🔍 ماذا يحدث

نفدت الحكومة الأمريكية من التمويل النشط بعد فشل الكونغرس في الموافقة على مشروع قانون إنفاق مؤقت.

People keep asking: “Why can’t crypto hold its ground?”
Every bounce feels short-lived, every rally ends with another dump. But this time, it’s not just about fear or greed — there’s a deeper story unfolding.

Lately, every piece of “good” news has turned into bad news for the market — at least short-term. The recent rate cuts looked bullish on paper, yet they triggered heavy selling.
Why? Because smart money used the optimism to close longs, grab liquidity, and shake out overleveraged retail traders.

It’s an old game — turning good headlines into exit liquidity.

As Monday opened, both Bitcoin and Ethereum slipped toward their key support zones, exposing how fragile sentiment has become. With the FOMC meeting, fresh inflation data, and nonstop Fed talk ahead, investors across all markets — from crypto to forex — are recalibrating. The result? Volatility everywhere.

But this isn’t the end — it’s a rebalancing phase.
When liquidity gets hunted, conviction gets tested — and that’s when long-term players quietly reload.

Stay calm. Keep your risk tight.
Because in crypto, the biggest opportunities rise right after the loudest panic.

#FOMCMeeting $THE #CryptoNews #bitcoin #Ethereum #MarketUpdate

$XRP | #XRPCommunity | #CryptoNews

A well-known XRP community member and software developer, Vincent Van Code, recently shared insights on why short-term price swings don’t matter if XRP eventually reaches the massive valuations long-term holders are hoping for.

Over the past few weeks, XRP has traded between $2.20 and $2.60, trying to recover from the October 10 market drop. The token briefly touched $2.69 on October 27, but has since eased back to around $2.49, marking three straight daily losses.

During this correction, XRP’s market cap shrank by more than $8 billion, even though the token’s price slipped only $0.14 — showing how sensitive short-term traders are to minor moves.

🔹 “Small Price Gaps Become Meaningless Over Time”

Van Code admitted he once hesitated to buy XRP at $0.80, having already accumulated some near $0.20. Back then, paying more for the same asset felt wrong. But with time, he realized that long-term perspective changes everything.

If XRP were to ever reach $100, the gap between $0.20 and $0.80 would barely matter — both entries would yield life-changing returns.

Historical data backs this mindset:

XRP traded around $0.21 in Jan 2021, surged to $1.96 by April 2021,

dropped to $0.29 during 2022,

and later recovered to $0.90+ by mid-2023.
Now, at ~$2.55, XRP remains relatively stable despite market turbulence.

🔹 Long-Term Conviction Over Short-Term Panic

Van Code compared XRP’s potential to Bitcoin’s early days. In 2011, Bitcoin was between $3 and $12 — and now trades above $110,000. For early BTC investors, the difference between $3 and $12 is irrelevant today.

He illustrated this with an example:

Investor A buys 22,935 XRP at $2.18 ($50,000 invested).

Investor B buys 19,607 XRP at $2.55 (same $50,000).


If XRP ever hit $100,

Investor A’s holdings = $2.29 million

Investor B’s holdings = $1.96 million


Both would enjoy life-changing profits — regardless of their entry point.

🔹 The Bigger Message

While Van Code’s $100 prediction is speculative, his key takeaway isn’t about price targets — it’s about discipline and perspective.

Short-term volatility will always exist, but those focused on the bigger picture are often the ones who benefit most in the long run.

XRP’s recent stability and growing community confidence suggest a shift toward maturity in investor behavior — one that values patience and conviction over daily noise.

#altcoins #HODL

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller just shook up the markets with one powerful statement:
> “All the data indicate we should cut rates in December.”
No hedging. No cautious language. Just a clear signal that the Fed might finally ease up after months of tightening.

If the rate cut happens, it could shift global liquidity, sending ripple effects across:
💼 Stocks – potential rally as investors price in cheaper credit.
💵 U.S. Dollar – likely to soften, supporting risk assets.
🪙 Crypto – could see renewed inflows as traders bet on a liquidity-driven bull phase.

In short: The December Fed meeting might set the tone for 2026’s market cycle.
Stay ready — because when the Fed eases, crypto moves first.
#altcoins #USDT #CryptoAnalysis #globaleconomy #CryptoNews

لقد خفض الاحتياطي الفيدرالي رسميًا أسعار الفائدة بنسبة 0.25%، ليصبح معدلها بين 3.75%–4.00%.
لكن ها هي المفاجأة — لم تنفجر الأسواق للأعلى. لماذا؟
👉 رئيس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي جيروم باول لمح أنه قد لا يكون هناك خفض آخر في ديسمبر، مما يجعل المتداولين حذرين.
نظرة عامة على السوق:
📉 الأسهم الأمريكية — انخفاض طفيف
📈 عائدات السندات — ارتفعت قليلاً
💵 الدولار الأمريكي — لا يزال قويًا حول 99.60
🥇 الذهب — ارتفع بنحو 4% هذا الشهر حيث يبحث المستثمرون عن الأمان
في الوقت نفسه، أعلن الاحتياطي الفيدرالي أيضًا أنه سيتوقف عن تقليل ميزانيته العمومية في 1 ديسمبر، مما يضيف فعليًا سيولة مرة أخرى إلى الأسواق — علامة إيجابية للأصول عالية المخاطر.

حركة سعر المستقبل للعبة هامستر كومبات (HMSTR) $HMSTR تجذب اهتمامًا هائلًا، وهذه هي البيانات الحالية والتوقعات التي تشير إليها 👇

1️⃣ توقع سعر الإطلاق:
يتوقع المحللون أن يظهر HMSTR بين 0.02 دولار و0.10 دولار، اعتمادًا على الطلب المبكر وقوائم التبادل عند الإطلاق.

2️⃣ الزخم على المدى القصير (2024):
مع اتجاه HMSTR عبر المنصات الرئيسية للعملات المشفرة وكسبه زخمًا كبيرًا على وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي، يرى المحللون إمكانية تحقيق مكاسب — ربما تصل إلى 0.62 دولار بحلول نهاية عام 2024 إذا استمر الزخم.

بعد مفاوضات مكثفة استمرت 100 دقيقة في سيول، أعلن الرئيس دونالد ج. ترامب $TRUMP رسميًا أن الولايات المتحدة والصين توصلتا إلى اتفاق إطار تجاري، مما يعني نهاية أشهر من عدم اليقين في الأسواق العالمية.

🔑 النقاط الرئيسية (عبر رويترز وCNBC)

🇨🇳 الصين تلتزم باتفاق تصدير العناصر الأرضية النادرة لمدة عام — أكد ترامب، "تم حل المسألة."

🇺🇸 تم خفض الرسوم الجمركية الأمريكية على الواردات الصينية من 57% → 47%.

🌾 الصين تستأنف شراء فول الصويا على نطاق واسع من الولايات المتحدة.

Everyone’s saying $BONK will hit $1 by 2026… 😂 Let’s be real for a second — that’s never going to happen.
This post is for all the newcomers getting baited by hype posts before doing any real math.

Let’s break it down 👇

💥 Total Supply: 88 TRILLION BONK tokens!
If BONK $BONK ever reached $1, the market cap would be $88 TRILLION — that’s nearly the value of the entire global economy! 🤯

🪙 Circulating Supply: Around 81.97T, and more tokens are still unlocking — meaning prices could drop further over time.

📉 All-Time High (ATH): ~$0.00005 — and that was about a year ago.
Realistically, BONK might retest that ATH or go a little higher… but $1? Not a chance — unless 99.99% of the supply gets burned (and that’s not happening anytime soon).

🚫 BONK to $1? NEVER!
✅ BONK to $0.00005+? MUCH MORE LIKELY!

💬 Stay smart, stay safe — and don’t fall for viral hype posts.
#BONK #CryptoFacts #Solanaecosystem
#MarketPullback #

Bitcoin (BTC) $BTC is trading around US $113,000 and recently slipped about ~1.4% in the past 24 h.
Ethereum (ETH) $ETH is around US $4,030, also showing a mild decline in the short‐term.
The total crypto market cap sits around US $3.8 trillion, with slight day-to-day decrease and trading volume up.

📰 Key Developments
There was a sharp liquidation event: over US $217 million worth of crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, affecting both long and short positions and causing sharp moves in major assets.
Bitcoin is consolidating near the ~US $114,000 level, as many traders adopt a cautious stance ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
On the bullish side, analysts are still pointing to structural drivers for a potential general upward phase (bull run) later in 2025, though many caveats apply.

✅ What’s causing the moves
Monetary policy / central bank signals: With the FOMC meeting approaching, crypto markets (like many risk assets) are sensitive to interest rate expectations and inflation data. The consolidation in BTC and ETH may reflect that uncertainty.
Leverage & liquidations: The large liquidation figure underscores how quickly leveraged positions can magnify market moves—both up and down.
Momentum vs wait-and-see: While there is underlying bullish sentiment for the medium term, the near term seems to be in a “pause” / consolidation mode until clearer signals arrive.

⚠️ Points of caution / things to watch
If rate hikes or hawkish commentary come from the Fed, markets could see renewed sell pressure.
High volatility remains; while that offers opportunities it also means risk is elevated—especially with leverage in play.
Consolidation at high price levels means any break (up or down) could lead to relatively large moves.
Macro events (geopolitics, regulation) can quickly shift market sentiment in crypto more than usual.

🔍 My View & What to Consider
Given the above:
If you’re holding for the medium to long term and believe in the structural story (crypto adoption, institutional flows, etc.), this consolidation could be a period to patiently accumulate if appropriate.
If you’re more trading‐oriented, the key is to watch for a breakout (in either direction) from current levels—once triggered, moves could accelerate.
Avoid over‐leveraging in the current environment; liquidation risk is clearly non‐trivial.
Stay aware of macro/central bank calendars—crypto isn’t isolated from broader financial system moves.
#bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoNews #CryptoMarketMoves #altcoins

إذا استثمرت $1,000 في BNB $BNB اليوم، تشير التوقعات إلى أنه قد ينمو إلى $2,615.50 بحلول 19 أغسطس 2026 — عائد محتمل بنسبة 161.55% في أقل من عام! 💰

على مدار الشهر الماضي فقط، ارتفعت BNB بنسبة 19.16%، مضيفةً متوسط $221.66 إلى قيمتها. تُظهر هذه الزخم القوي أن BNB قد تصبح واحدة من أكثر الأصول المشفرة صلابة في دخول المرحلة الصاعدة القادمة.

📊 توقع سعر BNB 2025

تشير المؤشرات الفنية إلى أنه بحلول 2025، قد تتداول BNB بين

الحد الأدنى: $1,274.03

الحد الأقصى: $1,326.93

$XRP
استراتيجي العملات الرقمية ستيف أصدرت للتو واحدة من أقوى التحذيرات الفنية لـ XRP منذ شهور - واصفًا الإعداد الحالي "إشارة مجنونة" التي تاريخياً تسبق الانتعاشات الكبيرة.
📊 ماذا يحدث
تسليط الضوء على تحليل ستيف الأخير يبرز مؤشر RSI العشوائي المبالغ فيه على الرسم البياني الأسبوعي لـ XRP - وهو مؤشر زخم غالبًا ما يرتبط بانعكاسات السوق. وفقًا له، فإن هذا الإعداد بالضبط قد حدد كل انتعاش رئيسي لـ XRP منذ عام 2022.
💡 النمط التاريخي
في كل مرة انخفض فيها مؤشر RSI العشوائي إلى ما تسميه ستيف "المنطقة الخضراء" (حوالي 7-8 على المقياس)، تبعت XRP حركة كبيرة للأعلى - عادةً بين +40% و +50%.