The Cryptonomist

Các nhà giao dịch đang điều hướng một băng tăng giá chiến thuật chống lại một bối cảnh yếu về cấu trúc, khi giá Bitcoin hôm nay cố gắng phục hồi trong một xu hướng rộng hơn vẫn bị hỏng.

BTC/USDT — biểu đồ hàng ngày với nến, EMA20/EMA50 và khối lượng.

Thiên hướng lõi theo khung thời gian

Hàng ngày (D1) – Kịch bản chính: Giảm
Xu hướng hàng ngày rõ ràng là giảm. Giá đang giao dịch dưới tất cả các EMA chính, MACD đang âm, và RSI ngồi ở mức thấp 40s. Điều đó giữ cho kịch bản chính là giảm cho đến khi được chứng minh điều ngược lại.

1H – Phục hồi ngược xu hướng
Trên biểu đồ hàng giờ, Bitcoin đã đẩy trở lại trên các EMA ngắn hạn với một RSI mua quá mức mạnh. Đó là một công thức cổ điển cho một cuộc tăng ngược xu hướng bên trong một đợt giảm lớn hơn – đủ mạnh để làm tổn thương các short muộn, nhưng chưa đủ mạnh để lật ngược xu hướng vĩ mô.

ETH đang cố gắng ổn định sau một đợt bán tháo mạnh, và sự bật lên hiện tại của tiền điện tử Ethereum đang thử nghiệm xem đây có phải là một sự giảm nhẹ đơn giản hay một cái gì đó bền vững hơn.

ETH/USDT - biểu đồ hàng ngày với nến, EMA20/EMA50 và khối lượng.

Kịch bản Chính từ Biểu đồ Hàng ngày (D1)

Khung thời gian hàng ngày chỉ ra một kịch bản chính giảm giá. ETH đang giao dịch rất thấp dưới tất cả các đường trung bình động chính, động lực vẫn âm, và giá đang ngồi ở nửa dưới của dải biến động gần đây. Cho đến khi ETH có thể lấy lại các đường trung bình động chính, bất kỳ sự tăng nào đều là một động thái chống xu hướng.

After five years tracking DeFi and NFT activity, the parsec shutdown underscores how fast the crypto analytics landscape can change when on-chain behavior shifts.

Parsec closes after five years of shifting DeFi cycles

Parsec has ended operations after a five-year run, as evolving market trends eroded demand for its once popular analytics tools. The team confirmed the decision following significant changes in crypto trading behavior and data patterns that reshaped the sector. Moreover, the shutdown comes during a phase of declining usage across several on-chain systems and analytics platforms.

The firm operated through multiple market cycles, but recent conditions weakened its original business model. It built its core product around DeFi activity and protocol-level flows. However, post-FTX market structure changes reduced leverage across major lending and derivatives platforms, cutting into the rich on-chain data Parsec had previously tracked with consistency.

Parsec launched in early 2021, starting as a small project focused on early Uniswap trading dynamics before expanding into a full analytics terminal. During the strong bull cycle that followed, activity surged across networks and protocols, fueling rapid expansion of its toolkit. That said, industry behavior shifted sharply after 2022, as user flows changed across several chains and on-chain leverage normalized at lower levels.

NFT slowdown and volume drop pressure analytics platforms

While DeFi flows cooled, NFT markets also lost momentum, creating a second drag on on-chain data platforms. NFT demand weakened meaningfully, and sales fell to $5.63 billion in 2025 as average prices declined further across major collections. Consequently, these lower volumes reduced the intensity of trading and minting activity that Parsec and similar tools monitored.

The combination of fewer leveraged positions, slower protocol usage, and a softer NFT market put structural pressure on data-focused businesses. Furthermore, as casual users pulled back and professional traders concentrated on fewer venues, the value of broad, retail-oriented dashboards diminished. This shift left Parsec increasingly misaligned with how users interacted with on-chain markets.

Industry transition and emerging consolidation trend

Parsec is now one of several analytics and infrastructure firms shutting down as the crypto sector adjusts to new conditions. Entropy also announced its closure recently, pointing to difficulties achieving long-term product alignment in a more demanding environment. Together, these exits highlight a market segment moving toward fewer active platforms and stronger competitive pressures.

Executives and investors across the industry increasingly expect crypto analytics platform consolidation as both capital and user attention concentrate around a smaller group of providers. Larger entities may purchase or hire smaller teams to integrate their technology stacks, reshaping how data services are structured and delivered. However, the pace of consolidation remains uncertain as new entrants continue to experiment with niche analytics models.

Broader market conditions have added to the strain. Bitcoin has faced renewed volatility, with the asset trading near $67,246 after falling sharply from its record high. Although activity levels remain uneven, search and engagement data indicate rising interest in long-term stability and risk management rather than short-term speculative leverage.

Why the parsec shutdown reflects changing on-chain dynamics

Parsec built a strong analytics presence as it navigated the rapid growth of decentralized finance and collectibles. The platform supported users through intense market surges and sharp contractions, while maintaining active feature development and integrations. However, as user behavior evolved, the relevance of its original focus on lending, trading, and NFT flows diminished across several core networks.

The team acknowledged that on-chain flows no longer resembled their earlier structure, making it difficult to align with new patterns. Competing products adapted toward narrower or more institutional use cases, while Parsec’s broad approach became harder to sustain. Moreover, as rival dashboards optimized for different user needs, differentiation through coverage alone was no longer enough.

In its final messages to the community, Parsec emphasized that the long-term path had grown increasingly unclear. The company struggled to justify continued investment in its legacy model as activity concentrated elsewhere and the on chain data platform decline accelerated. Ultimately, it chose to close operations while recognizing its impact during one of crypto’s most active and experimental periods.

What Parsec’s closure signals for future DeFi analytics

The end of Parsec marks another phase in a sector defined by rapid, sometimes abrupt, structural change. Market conditions continue to evolve with new activity models, from restaking and modular infrastructure to more regulated trading environments. That said, demand for high-quality on-chain data has not disappeared; it has instead become more selective and specialized.

Looking ahead, firms providing analytics for decentralized finance and NFTs may face further pressure as they adapt to a less fragmented ecosystem. Business models that thrived in the 2020–2022 expansion now require deeper product-market fit and clearer monetization. As DeFi participants focus on risk-adjusted returns rather than pure growth, only the most adaptable platforms are likely to survive another full market cycle.

In summary, Parsec’s exit illustrates how quickly assumptions about usage, leverage, and NFT volumes can become outdated. Its shutdown encapsulates a broader realignment in crypto data services, where consolidation, specialization, and tighter alignment with user behavior are becoming defining features of the next stage.

Nhu cầu từ các tổ chức về việc tiếp cận crypto được quản lý đang thúc đẩy những sản phẩm mới như quỹ ETF stablecoin, hiện có một phương tiện thị trường tiền tệ chuyên dụng liên quan đến luật pháp của Hoa Kỳ.

ProShares ra mắt quỹ ETF thị trường tiền tệ tuân thủ Đạo luật GENIUS

ProShares đã niêm yết một quỹ thị trường tiền tệ mới trên NYSE Arca dưới mã chứng khoán IQMM, được thiết kế đặc biệt cho việc quản lý dự trữ stablecoin. Quỹ ETF Thị Trường Tiền Tệ GENIUS của ProShares là quỹ giao dịch đầu tiên được cấu trúc theo Đạo luật GENIUS, luật stablecoin của Hoa Kỳ được ký vào tháng Bảy năm ngoái, và nó nhắm đến các nhà phát hành đang tìm kiếm các chiến lược dự trữ hoàn toàn tuân thủ.

Khi cuộc tranh luận về blockchain Solana so với Base trở nên gay gắt, bối cảnh token presale đang phát triển của Base đang định hình lại cách các nhà giao dịch đánh giá memecoins và các dự án tập trung vào tiện ích trên cả hai hệ sinh thái.

Solana so với blockchain Base khi các đồng memecoin phát triển

Cuộc cạnh tranh giữa Solana và Base đã trở nên quyết liệt khi các đồng memecoin biến đổi cả hai mạng. Solana ban đầu thống trị các buổi ra mắt token nhanh và rẻ, được hỗ trợ bởi các nền tảng như Pump.Fun. Tuy nhiên, hạ tầng tương tự đã tạo ra sự tăng trưởng nhanh chóng cũng dẫn đến những câu chuyện rug pull hàng ngày và sự suy giảm lòng tin của người dùng.

Cảm xúc trên thị trường tiền điện tử hiện đang rất thấp.

Trong số các nguyên nhân khác nhau dẫn đến vấn đề này, có phải cũng có các yếu tố địa chính trị không?

Mặc dù có thể không có liên kết trực tiếp giữa căng thẳng địa chính trị và cảm xúc của thị trường tiền điện tử, nhưng có vẻ như có ít nhất một kết nối trực tiếp, điều này khá rõ ràng.

VIX

VIX, hay Chỉ số Biến động CBOE, được biết đến như là "chỉ số sợ hãi".

Đây là một chỉ số được tính toán dựa trên giá của các tùy chọn trên S&P 500, đo lường độ biến động hàng năm dự kiến.

Trong một động thái có thể định hình lại cơ sở hạ tầng thị trường dự đoán, việc Polymarket mua lại Dome báo hiệu một nỗ lực sâu sắc hơn vào các công cụ phát triển và truy cập thị trường đa nền tảng.

Polymarket xác nhận việc mua lại Dome được hỗ trợ bởi YC

Polymarket đã mua lại Dome, một startup được Y Combinator hỗ trợ xây dựng một API thống nhất cho các thị trường dự đoán, trong một thỏa thuận được xác nhận bởi cả hai công ty vào ngày 19 tháng 2 trong các bài viết phối hợp trên X. Tuy nhiên, cả hai bên đều không tiết lộ các điều khoản tài chính hoặc làm rõ cách mà đội ngũ hoặc sản phẩm của Dome sẽ được tích hợp vào nền tảng rộng lớn hơn của Polymarket.

Tại một buổi gặp gỡ nổi bật ở Florida, sự hiện diện của changpeng zhao đã nhấn mạnh mức độ mà tài sản kỹ thuật số hiện đã ăn sâu vào các vòng tròn chính trị và tài chính của Mỹ.

Zhao trở lại Mỹ lần đầu tiên kể từ khi ra tù vào năm 2024

Người sáng lập Binance Changpeng Zhao đã lặng lẽ trở lại Hoa Kỳ vào tháng 2 năm 2026, đánh dấu lần xuất hiện đầu tiên của anh tại đây kể từ khi anh được thả vào năm 2024. Chuyến đi tập trung vào một hội nghị tiền điện tử lớn được tổ chức tại Mar-a-Lago, khu nghỉ dưỡng Palm Beach gắn liền với Donald Trump.

Sự kiện được tổ chức bởi World Liberty Financial, một doanh nghiệp liên kết với Trump, đã định vị mình tại giao điểm của chính trị, tài chính và blockchain. Hơn nữa, sự có mặt của Zhao đã báo hiệu rằng các nhân vật hàng đầu trong ngành vẫn rất quan tâm đến việc tương tác với các nhà môi giới quyền lực của Mỹ mặc dù đang bị giám sát quy định.

Sau nhiều năm rút lui khỏi các tờ báo, một khoản đầu tư mới của Warren Buffett vào The New York Times báo hiệu một sự đảo ngược nổi bật cho một trong những nhà hoài nghi truyền thông có ảnh hưởng nhất nước Mỹ.

Berkshire Hathaway trở lại phòng tin tức với khoản đầu tư 351,7 triệu đô la.

Chỉ năm năm sau khi Berkshire Hathaway bán tất cả 31 tờ báo và Warren Buffett nổi tiếng gọi ngành công nghiệp này là “tàn lụi”, tập đoàn này đã âm thầm quay trở lại với truyền thông di sản. Một bản cập nhật hàng quý gửi tới SEC tiết lộ rằng Berkshire đã cam kết 351,7 triệu đô la cho cổ phiếu của The New York Times, gia nhập lại một câu lạc bộ nhỏ các tổ chức tin tức được tài trợ bởi tỷ phú.

World Liberty Financial đang tiến sâu vào tài chính dựa trên blockchain khi họ ra mắt sáng kiến mã hóa Maldives cho một dự án khu nghỉ dưỡng siêu sang tại Ấn Độ Dương.

World Liberty Financial hợp tác với DarGlobal và Securitize

World Liberty Financial (“WLFI“) thông báo vào ngày 19 tháng 2 năm 2026 rằng họ sẽ mã hóa lợi ích doanh thu từ khoản vay liên quan đến Trump International Hotel & Resort, Maldives. Bước đi này diễn ra trong sự hợp tác với Securitize, Inc., một nền tảng tập trung vào mã hóa tài sản thế giới thực, và DarGlobal PLC (LSE: DAR), một nhà phát triển bất động sản quốc tế.

Trong giai đoạn quản trị then chốt, sự thống nhất của Uniswap đang nổi lên như một khung cho doanh thu giao thức và thắt chặt mối liên hệ giữa việc sử dụng và kinh tế token.

Kế hoạch phí mới mở rộng ra tám mạng lưới bổ sung

Vào ngày 19 tháng 2 năm 2026, nhóm đứng sau sàn giao dịch phi tập trung nổi bật Uniswap đã công bố một đề xuất mở rộng hệ thống thu phí của mình ra ngoài Ethereum và phạm vi hiện tại. Biện pháp quản trị nhằm tìm kiếm sự chấp thuận của cộng đồng để kích hoạt phí giao thức cho tất cả các bể thanh khoản phiên bản 3 còn lại trên Ethereum, cũng như trên tám blockchain khác.

Nền tảng thanh toán toàn cầu Payoneer đang tăng cường tập trung vào tài sản kỹ thuật số, công bố một giải pháp stablecoin mới của Payoneer hợp tác với nhà cung cấp cơ sở hạ tầng Bridge để đơn giản hóa thanh toán doanh nghiệp xuyên biên giới.

Payoneer và Bridge mở rộng việc sử dụng stablecoin cho các doanh nghiệp vừa và nhỏ toàn cầu

Vào ngày 19 tháng 2 năm 2026, Payoneer đã công bố một sự hợp tác chiến lược với Bridge, một công ty thuộc Stripe, để tích hợp quy trình stablecoin từ đầu đến cuối trực tiếp vào nền tảng của mình. Sáng kiến này nhằm cung cấp việc thanh toán xuyên biên giới nhanh hơn và an toàn hơn cho các doanh nghiệp vừa và nhỏ.

Các nhà đầu tư phản ứng lo lắng trước tin tức về các ghi chú chuyển đổi của Bitdeer vào thứ Năm, khi các kế hoạch huy động vốn mới đã dấy lên những lo ngại về khả năng pha loãng cổ phần trong tương lai và áp lực định giá.

Bitdeer huy động 300 triệu đô la thông qua các ghi chú chuyển đổi mới

Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR) đã công bố kế hoạch huy động 300 triệu đô la thông qua một đợt bán riêng các ghi chú senior chuyển đổi, làm sâu sắc thêm cấu trúc vốn của mình khi theo đuổi sự phát triển trong khai thác bitcoin và các trung tâm dữ liệu AI. Tuy nhiên, cấu trúc tài chính mới ngay lập tức ảnh hưởng đến tâm lý thị trường.

Trên nhiều lĩnh vực, người lao động đang đối mặt với sự thay đổi nhanh chóng khi sự thông thạo về AI âm thầm nổi lên như một yếu tố phân biệt mạnh mẽ trong tiền lương, thăng tiến và an ninh nghề nghiệp lâu dài.

Hầu hết nhân viên vẫn chưa sử dụng AI tại nơi làm việc

Một nghiên cứu mới từ Google và Ipsos, được chia sẻ với Fortune, cho thấy chỉ có hai trong năm người lao động tại Mỹ, tức 40%, thậm chí còn sử dụng AI một cách tùy tiện trong công việc của họ. Hơn nữa, chỉ có 5% đủ điều kiện là “thông thạo AI,” có nghĩa là họ đã thiết kế lại hoặc tổ chức lại những phần quan trọng trong công việc của mình bằng cách sử dụng công nghệ.

Markets are processing a controlled yet persistent selloff as Bitcoin price today trades in a zone where bearish momentum meets growing contrarian interest.

BTC/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

1. Market Thesis – Where We Stand Now

Bitcoin price today is trading around $66,100–66,200 (BTC/USDT) after several weeks of controlled but persistent selling. The daily trend is clearly bearish, but what matters here is how we are selling off: it has been steady, not panic-driven, and we are now entering levels where the market usually starts to argue with itself.

The dominant force right now is risk-off positioning from larger players after the Wall Street-driven ETF wave cooled and macro/geopolitical tension picked up. You see that in the headlines, but you also see it in structure: price is well below the major moving averages, RSI is depressed but not yet washed out, and the fear & greed index is sitting at Extreme Fear (9). This is the part of the cycle where trend followers are still short or flat, while contrarians are quietly starting to plan entries, not because things look good, but because things finally look uncomfortable.

2. Higher Timeframe Bias (Daily – D1)

On the daily chart, the system labels the regime as bearish. The burden of proof is on the bulls.

Price vs EMAs (Trend Structure)

Close: $66,139.49

EMA 20: $71,578.15

EMA 50: $79,127.61

EMA 200: $93,541.55

Price is trading well below all three EMAs. Short-term trend (20 EMA), medium-term trend (50 EMA), and long-term trend (200 EMA) are all above price and effectively acting as a stacked zone of overhead supply.

What it implies: Structurally, we are in a mature pullback within a larger-cycle bull market. You do not get price that far below a rising 200 EMA in the middle of a euphoric blow-off; you see it during deeper corrections where late longs are being cleaned out. The distance to the 20 and 50 EMAs means any bounce has room to run before it even threatens the broader down-leg.

RSI (Momentum / Exhaustion)

RSI 14 (Daily): 32.44

Daily RSI is sitting just above classical oversold territory.

What it implies: Momentum is bearish but not yet capitulative. Sellers are in control, but we are entering a zone where fresh shorts carry higher risk of getting squeezed. It is the kind of reading where the trend can push a bit lower, but the risk-reward starts shifting against newly established aggressive shorts unless we see another sharp leg down.

MACD (Trend Momentum & Inflection)

MACD line: -4,597.9

Signal line: -4,926.81

Histogram: +328.91

MACD is negative, in line with the downtrend, but the histogram is positive, meaning the MACD line is starting to creep back toward the signal line.

What it implies: Trend momentum is still down, yet the rate of downside is easing. Bears are no longer accelerating the move; they are pressing an existing advantage. This is often how bases or short-term relief rallies begin: not with instant reversals, but with a loss of downside momentum first.

Bollinger Bands (Volatility & Location)

Middle band (20 SMA proxy): $70,266.69

Upper band: $78,702.41

Lower band: $61,830.96

Price (close): $66,139.49

Bitcoin is trading in the lower half of the bands, but not pinned to the lower band.

What it implies: We are in a downside-biased volatility regime, but without a full volatility blowout. Price is not hugging the lower band, which tells you we are not in the straight-line liquidation phase. There is still room for a push toward the lower band near $61.8k if sentiment worsens, but also room for mean reversion back toward the mid-band around $70k if sellers lose focus.

ATR (Daily Volatility)

ATR 14: $3,599.87

Daily ATR is about $3.6k, which is elevated but not extreme by Bitcoin standards.

What it implies: We are in a high but manageable volatility environment. Daily ranges around 5–6% are on the table. Position sizing needs to assume that a $3–4k intraday swing is routine, not exceptional.

Daily Pivot Levels

Pivot Point (PP): $66,363.77

Resistance 1 (R1): $67,095.72

Support 1 (S1): $65,407.55

Price is sitting just under the daily pivot point.

What it implies: Short-term control is in the hands of sellers as long as price stays below $66.4k. The pivot acts as an intraday line in the sand: reclaiming it with momentum would hint at a short-covering day, while repeated rejections keep the path open toward $65.4k and below.

3. Intraday Context – H1 and M15

Hourly (H1) – Confirming the Downtrend

Close: $66,148

EMA 20: $66,716.85

EMA 50: $67,161.95

EMA 200: $68,157.46

RSI 14: 37.35

MACD line: -238.59

MACD signal: -190.63

MACD hist: -47.96

BB mid: $66,626.86 • upper: $67,322.41 • lower: $65,931.31

ATR 14: $395.62

Pivot PP: $66,000.12 • R1: $66,368.4 • S1: $65,779.71

On H1, price is also below all key EMAs, and the regime is flagged as bearish. RSI is weak but not oversold, and the MACD histogram is slightly negative.

What it implies: The hourly chart is aligned with the daily downtrend. Sellers are still leaning on intraday rallies, but momentum is not in free fall. The hourly ATR near $400 means intraday swings around 0.5–0.7% are typical, and the hourly pivot at $66k is acting as a gravitational point. Brief spikes above the pivot that fail near R1 around $66.37k are classic spots where short-term traders re-join the prevailing downtrend.

15-Min (M15) – Execution Layer

Close: $66,125.34

EMA 20: $66,423.36

EMA 50: $66,656.87

EMA 200: $67,192.10

RSI 14: 35.93

MACD line: -236.28

MACD signal: -178.2

MACD hist: -58.08

BB mid: $66,513.08 • upper: $67,212.48 • lower: $65,813.68

ATR 14: $256.4

Pivot PP: $65,992.56 • R1: $66,353.3 • S1: $65,764.61

M15 shows price grinding under its short EMAs with soft downside momentum. RSI is weak, and the MACD histogram is negative but not collapsing.

What it implies: The microstructure is controlled selling rather than panic. Dips are being sold, but bounces are not completely dead. For intraday traders, the band between the 15-minute pivot around $65,993 and R1 near $66,353 is a short-term battlefield: above R1 you start to see evidence of a squeeze; below the pivot the path of least resistance stays lower toward $65.7k and then the daily S1 region.

4. Market Context: Dominance, Sentiment, and DeFi

BTC dominance is high at 56.18%, while total crypto market cap is down about 1.7% in 24 hours. Fear & Greed sits at 9 (Extreme Fear).

What it implies: Money is not rotating into altcoins; it is either sitting in BTC, moving to stablecoins, or leaving the space entirely. Extreme fear at these levels usually appears in the later stages of a drawdown rather than the beginning. It does not guarantee a bottom, but it tells you that forced sellers and late bears are increasingly driving the tape. DeFi fee spikes on major DEXs, for example Uniswap v3 up sharply on the day, point to heightened on-chain activity, consistent with repositioning and de-risking.

5. Main Scenario for Bitcoin Price Today

Based on the daily trend structure and aligned lower timeframes, the main scenario is bearish. However, it is a late-stage bearish environment characterized by momentum loss and elevated fear, which is typically where inflection setups start to form.

Bearish Scenario (Primary)

In the active bearish path, Bitcoin fails to reclaim the daily pivot at about $66.4k with authority. Every test of that area and the nearby hourly resistance band around $67k is met with selling. H1 and M15 EMAs continue to cap price, and the market grinds lower in a stair-step pattern.

Under this scenario:

Intraday, the H1 S1 near $65.78k and daily S1 at about $65.41k levels get tested and potentially broken.

Volatility (ATR) keeps daily ranges large enough to threaten the lower Bollinger Band near $61.8k.

RSI can sink into the 25–30 zone on the daily if we see a clean leg toward or slightly through $60k, aligning with the recent news narrative about liquidation triggers around that level.

What strengthens this scenario today: staying pinned below the cluster of intraday EMAs, more negative MACD histograms on H1 and M15, and any pickup in daily ATR without positive reaction from buyers.

Bearish scenario invalidation:

A sustained move back above $70k, roughly the daily mid Bollinger and near the 20 EMA, would seriously damage the immediate bearish thesis.

On lower timeframes, a series of higher highs and higher lows on H1 above the $66.5–67k band, accompanied by MACD crossing firmly positive and RSI pushing through the mid-50s, would signal that sellers have lost control of the short-term tape.

Bullish / Mean-Reversion Scenario (Secondary)

The counter-scenario takes the view that extreme fear plus slowing downside momentum is setting up a relief rally rather than another waterfall. Here, Bitcoin defends the mid-$65k area and begins to grind higher intraday.

Under this path:

Price reclaims the daily pivot at $66.4k and holds above it on a closing basis.

The first upside magnet is the hourly mid-Bollinger and EMAs around $66.7–67.2k, followed by the daily mid-Bollinger near $70k.

Daily RSI moves back above 40, and the MACD histogram on D1 stays positive and grows, signaling a more convincing slowdown of the prior downtrend.

This scenario is not about calling a new macro bull leg; it is about pricing in a short-covering rally and perhaps a retest of broken support levels from above.

Bullish scenario invalidation:

A clean break and daily close below the lower Bollinger trajectory, around $61.8k, or a fast flush toward $60k without strong buying reaction would undercut the mean-reversion idea and reopen the door for a deeper correction.

If H1 repeatedly fails at the $66–67k zone and rolls over with rising volume, the bounce case weakens quickly.

Neutral / Range-Building Variant

There is a realistic middle path: Bitcoin could simply start building a range between roughly $62k and $70k, with volatility compressing over time. In that case, daily EMAs would gradually drift down while price chops sideways, and indicators like RSI would hover in the 40–50 area.

What would support this: declining ATR, flat-to-slightly positive MACD histogram, and a series of failed breakouts and breakdowns on both sides of the range.

6. Positioning, Risk, and Uncertainty

The current setup is one where trend followers still have the edge, but their edge is diminishing as momentum cools and sentiment hits extreme fear. The daily structure supports a bearish bias, yet the indicators are clear: this is not the start of the downtrend; it is the more mature phase where late shorts and forced liquidations tend to battle with early dip buyers.

For any active approach, the key is timeframe alignment:

If you lean into the bearish view, you want H1 and M15 to remain capped by their EMAs and pivots, with daily staying below $70k. Sharp squeezes into those moving averages are the high-risk zones to manage.

If you are watching for a bounce, your first confirmation is the ability of price to reclaim and hold above pivots, today around $66–66.5k, and then start closing candles above the short EMAs on H1.

Volatility is high enough that position sizing and liquidity choice matter more than usual. A move of $3–4k either way in a session is well within the normal range right now, so any plan built on tight stops or over-leverage is effectively a bet on noise, not direction.

Above all, this is an environment where narratives shift quickly. A move from extreme fear to reluctant optimism can happen in a handful of sessions if price bounces hard, just as another wave of macro risk-off could push BTC toward the $60k liquidation pocket. The only constant here is uncertainty, so any directional stance needs to be paired with clear invalidation levels and respect for the current volatility regime.

In a market dominated by Bitcoin and stables, Ethereum value is sitting at a discount while sentiment remains locked in extreme fear across the crypto complex.

ETH/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Thesis: Ethereum Value Is Cheap for a Reason — But the Market Is Close to Oversold Exhaustion

Ethereum (ETHUSDT) is trading around $1,930, sitting well below all key daily moving averages in a market dominated by Bitcoin at ~56% dominance and a crypto-wide sentiment of Extreme Fear (index at 9). That combination usually means Ethereum value looks optically cheap, but buyers are still too scared to step in size.

The dominant force right now is risk-off positioning: capital is hiding in BTC and stables while growth assets like ETH trade at a discount. The question is not “is ETH undervalued?” in the long-term sense, but rather: is the current downtrend mature enough to justify taking the other side? On the daily chart, the structure is still bearish, but momentum and volatility suggest we may be entering the late phase of the selloff rather than the middle.

Daily Chart (D1): Macro Bias – Bearish, But Late in the Move

On the daily timeframe, ETH/USDT is clearly in a bearing regime. Price is below all major EMAs and trades in the lower half of its Bollinger Band range.

Trend Structure: EMAs

Daily close: $1,930.61
EMA 20: $2,155.87
EMA 50: $2,512.20
EMA 200: $3,036.68

ETH is trading roughly 10% below the 20-day, 23% below the 50-day, and a massive 36% below the 200-day EMA. The short-, medium-, and long-term trend lines are all stacked above price and pointing down.

Interpretation: This is a textbook downtrend. Ethereum value is cheap versus where it traded over the past few months, but it is cheap within a trend, not in a vacuum. Any bounce back toward the 20-day EMA near $2,150 currently looks more like a rally into resistance than a full trend reversal.

Momentum: RSI (14)

RSI (14): 32.56

RSI is hovering just above the classic oversold line without actually breaking below 30.

Interpretation: Sellers are clearly in control, but we are not at capitulation levels yet. This is the zone where continued grind lower is still possible, but it also does not take much additional selling to trigger genuine oversold conditions and spark short-covering. Momentum is bearish, but it is no longer early; it is in the late, heavy phase of the move.

Momentum & Trend Confirmation: MACD

MACD line: -209.59
Signal line: -231.10
Histogram: +21.50

The MACD is deeply negative, confirming the strength and duration of the downtrend. However, the MACD line has crossed above the signal line, turning the histogram slightly positive.

Interpretation: The trend is still down, but downside momentum is slowing. This is often what you see when a selloff is transitioning from acceleration to consolidation or a potential base. MACD is not giving a clean buy signal yet, but it does say the worst of the momentum may be behind us, even if price has not found a firm floor.

Volatility & Positioning: Bollinger Bands

BB mid (20 SMA proxy): $2,075.66
Upper band: $2,373.98
Lower band: $1,777.35
Price vs bands: $1,930 is below the midline, above the lower band.

ETH is trading in the lower half of the band range, closer to the lower band but not hugging it.

Interpretation: The market has already priced in a significant amount of downside, but we are not in an outright panic where price rides the lower band. That usually means the move is more of a controlled de-risking than a liquidation spiral. A retest of the lower band near $1,780 remains on the table if fear intensifies, but the current spot is more weak, but not breaking than freefall.

Volatility & Risk: ATR (14)

ATR (14): $129.21

With ETH at about $1,930, a daily ATR of roughly $129 implies typical daily swings of about 6.5% of price.

Interpretation: Volatility is elevated but not at crisis levels. For traders, it means risk per position is high: stops need more room, and leverage has to be dialed down. For longer-term investors watching perceived Ethereum value, it means short-term noise is large enough that entries will rarely be perfect; you have to be comfortable with $100+ swings even if you are directionally right.

Near-Term Map: Daily Pivot Levels

Pivot (PP): $1,943.22
Resistance 1 (R1): $1,974.94
Support 1 (S1): $1,898.88

Price is trading just below the daily pivot and just above S1.

Interpretation: The intraday balance is slightly negative: the market is leaning under the pivot, but not convincingly breaking support. A clean daily close back above $1,975 would be the first sign that dip-buyers are finally stepping in; a break and hold below $1,900 ramps up the risk of a deeper slide toward the lower Bollinger Band.

Hourly Chart (H1): Short-Term Pressure, Controlled Selling

On the 1-hour chart, ETH is also in a bearish regime, but some signals show compression rather than acceleration.

Trend on H1: EMAs

H1 close: $1,931.95
EMA 20: $1,958.45
EMA 50: $1,970.43
EMA 200: $1,998.02

Price is below all three hourly EMAs, but the distance to them is relatively modest, at about 1–3%.

Interpretation: The short-term trend is still down, but the move is not extended on this timeframe. Bears are in control, yet the market is not heavily stretched intraday. That often leads to choppy, mean-reverting bounces into the EMAs, which then act as resistance.

Hourly RSI & MACD

RSI (14, H1): 35.82
MACD (H1): line -9.38, signal -5.86, histogram -3.52

Hourly RSI is under 40, confirming bearish momentum, while MACD is negative with the histogram also negative.

Interpretation: Unlike the daily MACD, the hourly MACD has not yet turned. Short-term momentum is still drifting lower. This supports the idea that intraday rallies are likely to be sold until we see positive divergence or a flip in the histogram.

Hourly Bollinger Bands, ATR & Pivots

BB mid: $1,956.97
BB upper: $1,989.27
BB lower: $1,924.68
ATR (14, H1): $15.41
H1 Pivot (PP): $1,926.62
R1: $1,941.18
S1: $1,917.40

Price is hovering just above the lower hourly band and just above the hourly pivot.

Interpretation: Intraday, ETH is heavy near the lower bands but not breaking down. Volatility around $15 per hour is meaningful but manageable. As long as price holds above $1,917–1,925, short-term sellers are pressing but not dominating; a break below that zone would likely invite a quick slide to test deeper supports.

15-Minute Chart (M15): Execution Context – Micro Downtrend, No Clear Reversal Yet

The 15-minute chart is purely for timing. It mirrors the higher timeframes with a smaller lens.

M15 close: $1,932.26
EMA 20: $1,944.61
EMA 50: $1,956.40
EMA 200: $1,970.96
RSI (14, M15): 36.65
MACD (M15): line -11.13, signal -9.11, histogram -2.02
BB mid: $1,947.85
BB upper: $1,978.96
BB lower: $1,916.74
ATR (14, M15): $10.56
Pivot (PP, M15): $1,926.73 (R1: $1,941.38, S1: $1,917.60)

Price is sitting just above the 15-minute pivot and the lower band area; momentum is bearish but not collapsing.

Interpretation: The micro trend points down, but price action is in a zone where scalpers may start fading further weakness, especially if higher timeframes hold their nearby supports. Any aggressive bounce from $1,920–1,930 that reclaims $1,950–1,960 on M15 would be an early tell that short-term selling is finally tiring.

Market Context: Ethereum Value vs. Macro Crypto Flows

The broader market cap has slipped about 1.8% in 24 hours, and sentiment is pinned at Extreme Fear. BTC dominance above 56% while Ethereum holds under 10% market share is a classic risk-off alignment: the market is rewarding perceived safety in BTC and stablecoins while systematically underweighting ETH and the rest of the risk curve.

On the fundamental side, DeFi activity is mixed. Uniswap V3 fees spiked over 400% in the last day, though seven-day fees are down. That hints at episodic bursts of on-chain activity, likely volatility or rotation trades, rather than a steady growth trend. For Ethereum value, that is a double-edged sword: the network is clearly still used, but the flows do not yet show a definitive, sustained return of risk appetite.

A notable headline is Harvard reportedly rotating from Bitcoin into Ethereum. One institution does not define price, but it underscores a long-running theme: on longer horizons, large players are willing to treat ETH as a core asset rather than a speculative token. In the short term, however, that kind of news is being drowned out by macro de-risking.

Main Scenario Based on D1: Moderately Bearish With a Late-Stage Feel

Taking the daily chart as the anchor, several elements align. The trend based on EMAs is firmly bearish. RSI is weak but not yet washed out. MACD is still negative but starting to improve. Price is in the lower half of the Bollinger range, not pinned to the bottom. Volatility is elevated but not extreme.

Put together, the base case is bearish, with a strong chance we are closer to the later innings of the downtrend than the beginning. The market is still pricing Ethereum value defensively, but signs of momentum fatigue are creeping in.

Scenarios for ETH/USDT

1. Bullish Scenario: Oversold Rebound and Mean Reversion

In the bullish path, the current area around $1,900–1,930 acts as a higher-timeframe support pocket, and extreme fear finally starts to attract contrarian buyers.

Key ingredients:

Support holds: Daily price defends the $1,900 zone (S1) and avoids a clean break of the lower Bollinger band near $1,780.

Momentum flip: Daily RSI stabilizes and curls back above 40, while MACD histogram continues to grow positive, confirming that downside momentum has truly peaked.

Short-term reclaim: On H1 and M15, ETH reclaims and holds above the 20 and 50 EMAs, roughly $1,960–1,980. These start acting as support rather than resistance.

Targets in this bullish mean-reversion scenario:

First, a move back to the daily pivot/R1 cluster around $1,975–2,000.

Then a test of the daily mid-Bollinger and 20 EMA zone around $2,075–2,150.

If risk appetite returns more broadly and BTC dominance cools, a deeper retrace toward the 50-day EMA, currently about $2,500, becomes possible, but that is a second-stage move, not the first expectation.

What invalidates the bullish scenario?

A decisive daily close below $1,900 followed by continuation toward $1,800.

Daily RSI sliding into deep oversold, under 30, with price hugging the lower Bollinger band, which would signal we are not done with the liquidation phase.

2. Bearish Scenario: Continuation Into a Deeper Value Reset

The bearish path says the current pause is just a rest stop in a larger downtrend. Extreme fear does not convert into buying; instead, it reflects real forced selling or macro risk-off that still has legs.

Key ingredients:

Pivot failure: ETH loses the $1,900–1,910 support band on a daily closing basis.

Momentum re-accelerates: Daily MACD histogram stalls or turns back down, and RSI breaks below 30 without an immediate rebound.

Band walk: Price starts trading consistently near or below the lower Bollinger band, indicating sustained selling pressure.

In that case, the next logical area is a full test of the lower band region around $1,780. If that fails, markets will start repricing Ethereum value based not on recent trading ranges but on earlier structural supports, which could be significantly lower than current levels.

What invalidates the bearish scenario?

A strong push that closes the day above $2,000, takes out R1, and holds above the daily pivot for multiple sessions.

H1 and D1 both flipping into a pattern where price rides above the 20 EMA instead of below it, showing a genuine change of control from sellers to buyers.

Positioning, Risk, and How to Think About Ethereum Value Here

This is a trend-down, late-phase environment with elevated volatility and extreme fear. That combination tends to punish both extremes: dip buyers who ignore the prevailing trend and scale in aggressively too early, and late shorts who chase breakdowns after volatility has already expanded.

For traders, the key is acknowledging that the daily trend is still down. Any long attempts are, for now, counter-trend and need tight invalidation levels around the nearby supports, with $1,900 first, then the lower band near $1,780. Short setups should respect the fact that momentum has already done a lot of work; this is not the time for blind, highly leveraged continuation bets without clear levels.

For investors thinking in terms of Ethereum value rather than just price ticks, the current zone is the start of the territory where fear can create opportunity, but the tape does not yet show a confirmed bottom. That means sizing and patience matter more than precision. The market is still willing to discount ETH in favor of BTC and stables; until that changes on the charts, every bounce is suspect.

The only certainty here is uncertainty. Volatility is high, macro risk sentiment is fragile, and the tape is still trending down. Any plan, bullish or bearish, needs clear levels where you admit you are wrong and step aside, rather than trying to fight a market that has already made up its mind for the day.

Market conditions remain fragile as Solana price trades in a decisive downtrend, with volatility elevated and sentiment deeply negative across crypto.

SOL/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Daily Chart (D1): Macro Bias – Clearly Bearish, But Getting Stretched

Trend Structure: EMAs

Price (close): $80.48

EMA 20: $91.19

EMA 50: $107.60

EMA 200: $142.78

Regime: bearish

Solana is trading well below the 20, 50 and 200-day EMAs, with a clean bearish stack (price < EMA 20 < EMA 50 < EMA 200). The 20-day sits ~13% above current price, which signals the short-term down-move is already extended but still very much intact. Moreover, trend-followers are in control; any bounce towards $90–$100 is technically a rally into overhead supply, not a confirmed trend change.

Momentum: RSI (Daily)

RSI 14 (D1): 32.20

Daily RSI is hovering just above classical oversold territory. Bears still have the upper hand, but downside momentum is starting to look tired. This is the zone where trend traders can keep short exposure, yet early dip-buyers will start sniffing around for potential mean reversion. It is weak, not yet capitulative.

Momentum: MACD (Daily)

MACD line: -9.37

Signal line: -10.41

Histogram: +1.04

The MACD lines are deep in negative territory, confirming a sustained bearish phase. However, the MACD line has crossed above the signal line, giving a positive histogram. That is an early sign that downside momentum is easing; think of it as the brakes being tapped on the selloff, not yet a full U-turn. In a strong downtrend, this kind of MACD improvement often fuels countertrend rallies that fail into resistance.

Volatility & Positioning: Bollinger Bands (Daily)

BB mid (20-period basis): $88.05

BB upper: $104.02

BB lower: $72.08

Solana price is trading below the Bollinger mid-band and in the lower half of the band structure, closer to the lower band at $72. Price has already made a run toward the lower band, which is consistent with an ongoing downtrend. The fact that it is not pinned hard to the band suggests sellers are in control but not in full capitulation mode. There is room for a tag of the lower band near $72 if sentiment weakens further, but equally, a snap-back towards the mid-band around $88 is plausible if shorts get crowded.

Volatility Gauge: ATR (Daily)

ATR 14 (D1): $6.51

With ATR around $6.5, the typical daily range is roughly 8% of current price. That is elevated but not extreme for Solana. Practically, it means both downside flushes and upside squeezes can be violent within a single day. Therefore, position sizing and stops need more buffer than during calmer phases.

Short-Term Daily Levels: Pivots (D1)

Pivot Point (PP): $80.92

R1: $82.23

S1: $79.17

Price is slightly below the daily pivot at $80.92, hovering between PP and S1. That is an intraday-bearish skew on the higher timeframe: the market is trading under its short-term equilibrium, with $82–83 acting as the first band of resistance and $79 the immediate support to watch for a potential flush toward the lower Bollinger band near $72.

Daily takeaway: The main scenario is bearish. The market is in a mature downtrend with early signs of selling fatigue. Until Solana can reclaim and hold above the daily 20 EMA (~$91), any bounce is structurally a rally within a downtrend.

1-Hour Chart (H1): Tactical Bias – Bearish, But Sliding Into Support

Trend: EMAs (H1)

Price (close): $80.61

EMA 20: $81.59

EMA 50: $82.77

EMA 200: $84.29

Regime: bearish

On the hourly, Solana is also trading below all key EMAs, which are smoothly fanned out above price. That is consistent with a controlled intraday downtrend rather than a panic dump. Any move back into $82–84 on the hourly chart will hit a wall of moving-average resistance where short-term sellers are likely waiting.

Momentum: RSI (H1)

RSI 14 (H1): 37.74

Hourly RSI sits in bearish-but-not-oversold territory. There is still room for another leg lower without requiring an immediate bounce. Bulls do not have momentum yet; the best they can argue is that the downside is no longer accelerating.

Momentum: MACD (H1)

MACD line: -0.65

Signal line: -0.61

Histogram: -0.04

The hourly MACD is marginally negative, with the line just under the signal line. Momentum is weakly bearish and drifting rather than sharply trending. That often aligns with a grind lower or sideways chop, not with a strong reversal attempt. Bulls would want to see this cross back above the signal with an expanding positive histogram before talking about a serious intraday shift.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility (H1)

BB mid: $81.43

BB upper: $82.54

BB lower: $80.33

ATR 14 (H1): $0.75

Price is near the lower hourly Bollinger band at $80.33, with ATR around $0.75. That puts Solana near short-term support after a recent push down. Intraday, this is where you often see either a brief bounce or a band walk. Given the broader bearish context, a slow crawl along the lower band is more likely than a clean V-shaped recovery unless macro conditions suddenly improve.

Hourly Pivots

Pivot Point (PP): $80.44

R1: $80.94

S1: $80.12

Price is sitting basically on the hourly pivot ($80.44–80.61 area), meaning the market is at a local decision point. A sustained push above R1 (~$80.94) would open the door for a test of the hourly EMAs near $81.5–82. Failing here and losing S1 (~$80.12) would validate continuation pressure toward $79 and the daily S1 zone.

15-Min Chart (M15): Execution Context – Seller Control, No Clear Base Yet

Trend: EMAs (M15)

Price (close): $80.58

EMA 20: $80.88

EMA 50: $81.37

EMA 200: $82.84

Regime: bearish

The 15-minute chart mirrors the higher timeframes: price under all EMAs, with a clear bearish alignment. Short-term rallies into $81–82 are likely to meet sellers quickly. For intraday traders, that area is the obvious battleground for fade setups unless structure changes.

Momentum: RSI (M15)

RSI 14 (M15): 40.67

On the 15-minute, RSI is weak but not oversold. That supports a slow grind or mild intraday bounces, not a clean trend reversal. Momentum across all three timeframes is consistently on the bearish side, just not at extremes.

Momentum: MACD (M15)

MACD line: -0.40

Signal line: -0.35

Histogram: -0.06

The 15-minute MACD is mildly bearish with a small negative histogram. Sellers remain in control, but there is no strong thrust; it is controlled pressure rather than aggressive dumping. This usually favors shorting failed bounces rather than chasing breakdowns at local lows.

Bollinger Bands & ATR (M15)

BB mid: $80.99

BB upper: $82.17

BB lower: $79.81

ATR 14 (M15): $0.46

Solana is trading just below the mid-band on M15, not pressed into extremes. Intraday volatility around $0.46 per 15-minute bar is meaningful but not chaotic. This structure favors range-trading or trend-follow setups rather than betting on immediate violent reversals.

M15 Pivots

Pivot Point (PP): $80.44

R1: $80.91

S1: $80.10

The 15-minute pivot roughly coincides with the hourly pivot, reinforcing the $80.4–80.6 zone as the short-term decision area. As long as M15 candles are closing below R1 (~$80.91) and the 20 EMA, the very short-term flow stays in favor of sellers.

Bullish Scenario for Solana Price (Countertrend Bounce)

A bullish case from here is countertrend only on current data. It hinges on selling pressure finally exhausting in this $78–81 band and the broader market stabilizing.

What bulls want to see:

A clear intraday higher low above roughly $79, visible on the 1H and 15m charts, rather than a straight-line bleed.

Hourly RSI pushing back above 45–50 with MACD crossing positive and expanding, showing fresh upside momentum rather than just a dead-cat bounce.

Price reclaiming and holding above the H1 EMA 20 (~$81.6) first, then the H1 EMA 50 (~$82.8). That would signal bears are losing grip on the intraday trend.

A push toward the daily Bollinger mid-band around $88, and ideally a test of the daily EMA 20 near $91. That is the logical first upside target zone for any relief rally.

If Solana can close multiple daily candles back above $91 (the 20-day EMA) with RSI lifting toward neutral (40s–50s) and MACD staying in a positive cross, the conversation shifts from a dead-cat bounce to a potential medium-term base forming.

Bullish scenario invalidation: A decisive break and daily close below the lower daily Bollinger band area, roughly $72, would seriously damage the bounce setup and point to a fresh leg lower. Also, continued failure to reclaim even the H1 EMA 20 while BTC dominance grinds higher would keep bulls firmly on the back foot.

Bearish Scenario for Solana Price (Trend Continuation)

The main scenario, given the data, is still trend continuation to the downside. The structure across D1, H1, and M15 is aligned: price below EMAs, bearish regimes on all timeframes, and a macro environment of extreme fear with BTC dominance rising.

What bears are looking for:

Failure of price to hold above the intraday pivots at $80.4–80.6, followed by a clean loss of the $79–80 area (daily S1 and local support band).

Hourly and 15-minute RSI staying weak (sub-45) on any bounce, showing no real momentum shift.

Hourly and daily MACD remaining in negative territory even if the histogram flips around zero, meaning rallies without structural trend change.

A move toward the daily lower Bollinger band region around $72. If fear deepens, price can overshoot that band before any lasting relief.

Below $72, there is a risk of a momentum break where forced liquidations and stop runs accelerate the downside. With daily ATR at $6.5, a one- or two-day slide of $10–15 is entirely possible if liquidity thins out.

Bearish scenario invalidation: Bears start losing the narrative if Solana can:

Reclaim the H1 EMA 200 (~$84.3) and hold above it, turning it into support.

Push into the $88–91 zone (daily mid-band and EMA 20) and consolidate there instead of instantly rejecting.

Show a daily RSI drift back into the 40s–50s with MACD holding a sustained positive cross.

Under those conditions, shorting every bounce becomes dangerous; the market would be shifting from a pure trend phase into a potential range or early accumulation.

How to Think About Positioning Now

Solana is in a clear downtrend on the daily, hourly, and 15-minute charts, with all EMAs stacked bearishly and momentum weak across the board. At the same time, daily RSI near 32 and a MACD that is starting to curl up indicate the easy part of the short trade may be behind us. This is often the phase where trend followers still have the edge, but the risk of sharp, painful squeezes increases.

In practice:

Any strength into the $82–88 band is currently a test of resistance, not a proven trend reversal.

The first real structural shift would be a sustained reclaim of the daily EMA 20 around $91.

The downside magnet in the current structure is the $72 daily lower Bollinger band region, with volatility high enough to reach it quickly if sentiment worsens.

Volatility is elevated, market-wide fear is extreme, and BTC is soaking up dominance. That combination can produce both deep flushes and violent bear-market rallies. Whatever your bias on Solana price, the data argues for respecting risk, as ranges are wide, reversals can be abrupt, and certainty is low even if the current trend is clearly down.

The current crypto environment is risk-off, and the XRP price reflects that mood with a controlled drift lower rather than a panic move.

XRP/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Market Thesis: XRP Price in a Controlled Descent, Not a Panic Dump

XRPUSDT is trading around $1.40, sitting below all the key daily moving averages and under the Bollinger mid-band. The higher timeframe structure is clearly bearish, but this is not a crash; it is a grind lower in a broader risk-off crypto environment.

Total crypto market cap is down about 1.8% over 24 hours, BTC dominance is elevated at ~56%, and the Fear & Greed Index is stuck in Extreme Fear (9). Capital is hiding in Bitcoin and stables, and altcoins like XRP are feeling the weight. However, the dominant force right now is defensive positioning, not speculative appetite.

On XRP specifically, the daily trend is down, momentum is weak, yet volatility is relatively contained. That cocktail usually favors controlled stair-steps lower rather than explosive moves in either direction, until a catalyst or a clear technical break appears.

Daily Timeframe (D1): Macro Bias = Bearish

On the daily chart, XRP is in a textbook downtrend that has been developing over time rather than erupting suddenly.

Trend Structure: EMAs

EMA20: 1.51  |  EMA50: 1.70  |  EMA200: 2.13  |  Price (close): 1.40

Price is trading below all three EMAs, and they are stacked bearishly (20 < 50 < 200). That is a mature downtrend, not just a pullback. Being below the 20-day in particular means short-term sellers still control the tape; there is no sign of a real reclaim yet.

Momentum: RSI (14)

RSI14: 37.82

RSI is below 40, so momentum is bearish, but it is not deeply oversold. Sellers are in charge, but they are not maxed out. That leaves room for further downside without requiring an immediate relief rally. Yet it also hints that forced selling is not extreme at this stage.

Momentum Confirmation: MACD

MACD line: -0.10  |  Signal: -0.12  |  Histogram: 0.02

MACD is negative, aligning with the downtrend, but the line is slightly above the signal, hence the small positive histogram. That is a mild momentum stabilisation: the downside push is slowing rather than accelerating. Bears are still in control, but the pressure is easing a bit instead of snowballing.

Volatility and Range: Bollinger Bands & ATR

Bollinger Bands (20): Mid 1.46 | Upper 1.66 | Lower 1.27
ATR(14): 0.11

Price sits below the middle band but not pinned to the lower band. That is a controlled downtrend rather than a waterfall. There is still room to the downside (toward ~1.27) if selling picks up, but current positioning shows more of a slow drift than outright panic. ATR at 0.11 means daily swings of roughly 8% are normal right now, elevated enough to hurt overleveraged positions, but not extreme for XRP.

Short-Term Levels: Daily Pivot

Pivot Point (PP): 1.41  |  R1: 1.43  |  S1: 1.38

Price is sitting right under the daily pivot at 1.41. That keeps intraday bias slightly negative. As long as XRP holds below 1.41–1.43, rallies are more likely to be sold into than extended. First nearby support is around 1.38; losing that opens up a deeper test lower in the daily Bollinger range.

Daily takeaway: The main scenario is bearish. Trend, structure, and momentum lean down. The only nuance is that the selloff is controlled, not capitulatory, which shapes expectations for follow-through.

Hourly Timeframe (H1): Weak Bounces in a Bearish Channel

On the 1H chart, XRP is grinding sideways to lower, echoing the daily bias but with even less energy showing up in the candles.

Trend: EMAs (H1)

EMA20: 1.42  |  EMA50: 1.44  |  EMA200: 1.45  |  Price: 1.40

Price is under all key intraday EMAs, and those averages are clustered just above: 1.42–1.45 is a dense resistance zone. Each time price tries to bounce, it runs into this overhead supply. Intraday buyers are losing the fight at the averages, which reinforces the short-term bearish tone.

Momentum: RSI & MACD (H1)

RSI14: 36.41
MACD line: -0.01 | Signal: -0.01 | Histogram: 0.00

RSI on the hourly is weak but not washed out, again around the high 30s. This mirrors the daily: persistent selling, no real sign of exhaustion. MACD is flat and negative, showing a lack of strong intraday impulse in either direction. Sellers are pushing price lower through grind, not aggression or panic.

Range & Intraday Pivot (H1)

Bollinger Bands (H1): Mid 1.42 | Upper 1.44 | Lower 1.40
ATR(14): 0.01
Pivot (H1 PP): 1.40 | R1: 1.41 | S1: 1.39

Price hugs the lower hourly band and sits right on the intraday pivot at 1.40. That signals a tight, low-volatility drift lower. With ATR at just 0.01, the hourly moves are small and controlled. Scalpers are trading a compressed range around 1.39–1.41. A decisive break below 1.39 would likely expand that range to the downside.

Hourly takeaway: H1 confirms the bearish daily bias, but in a slow bleed rather than a dump. Any bounce into 1.42–1.45 remains suspect unless price can close and hold above that band on multiple hourly candles.

15-Minute (M15): Execution Context, Not a Trend Reversal

On M15, XRP is just chopping near the lows of the broader range, offering more noise than signal for bigger-picture direction.

Short-Term Structure: EMAs (M15)

EMA20: 1.41  |  EMA50: 1.42  |  EMA200: 1.44  |  Price: 1.40

The same pattern repeats: price is below all short-term EMAs, which are stepping down. The micro-structure is aligned with the higher timeframes. There is no hidden bullish divergence in trend here that would justify a strong reversal call.

Short-Term Momentum & Volatility (M15)

RSI14: 42.78
MACD: Line -0.01 | Signal -0.01 | Histogram 0.00
Bollinger Bands (M15): Mid 1.41 | Upper 1.42 | Lower 1.39
Pivot (M15 PP): 1.40 | R1 1.41 | S1 1.39
ATR(14): 0.01

RSI on M15 is slightly higher than on H1, in the low 40s, hinting at mild intraday dip-buying or at least some stabilization. But MACD is flat, and price sits near the lower band and near S1 at 1.39–1.40. For execution, this timeframe shows short, tradable bounces from 1.39–1.40 into 1.41–1.42, but nothing that challenges the broader bearish structure.

15m takeaway: Micro bounces are possible, but the lower-timeframe action is just noise inside a larger downtrend and should be treated as such by higher timeframe traders.

Market Regime and Cross-Timeframe View

Across D1, H1, and M15, the regime flags are all explicitly bearish. There is no timeframe showing a clear bullish shift yet or a durable change in structure.

Trend: All key EMAs above price on every timeframe → bears control structure.

Momentum: RSI below 50 across the board, with daily and hourly sitting in the 30s → persistent selling, not oversold panic.

Volatility: ATR is moderate on D1 and compressed on intraday → controlled drift, not capitulation.

Macro context: BTC dominance high, extreme fear in the broader market → altcoins are in the penalty box and struggle to attract new inflows.

The only mild tension is between the slowing downside momentum (MACD histogram on D1 slightly positive) and the still-bearish price structure. In plain terms, the downtrend is aging, but it has not actually reversed or even properly challenged the dominant sellers yet.

Key Levels for XRP Price

Key technical zones continue to define the battleground where bulls and bears are likely to react.

Immediate resistance: 1.41–1.43 (daily PP and R1, plus intraday resistance)

Short-term resistance band: 1.42–1.45 (cluster of H1/M15 EMAs and hourly Bollinger mid)

Stronger resistance: 1.51 (daily EMA20) and 1.66 (daily upper Bollinger)

Immediate support: 1.38 (daily S1) and 1.39 (intraday S1)

Deeper support zone: 1.30–1.27 (daily lower Bollinger band region)

Scenario Map for XRP Price

Bullish Scenario

For a meaningful bullish case, XRP needs more than a scalp bounce; it needs to start reclaiming structure step by step on multiple timeframes.

What a constructive bullish path looks like:

Hold above 1.38–1.39 on closing basis (H1/D1). This confirms buyers are defending current support.

Break and hold above 1.41–1.43, turning the daily pivot band from resistance into support.

Reclaim the 1.42–1.45 EMA cluster on H1 with RSI moving back above 50. That would show that intraday control is shifting from sellers to buyers.

Daily close back above the EMA20 (~1.51). That is the key line where the daily downtrend starts to be questioned. Above there, rallies toward 1.60–1.66 (upper Bollinger) become realistic.

If this plays out, XRP could transition from a controlled downtrend into a mean-reversion rally, with shorts covering and new longs targeting the mid-1.60s region rather than new lows.

What invalidates the bullish scenario?

A decisive break below 1.38 on daily closing basis, with RSI staying below 40 and MACD turning more negative again, would put the bullish path on ice. That would show that the apparent stabilisation was just a pause before another leg down.

Bearish Scenario

The current setup already leans bearish, so continuation is the path of least resistance unless something shifts in structure or momentum.

What a continuation lower looks like:

XRP fails to reclaim 1.41–1.43 and keeps closing below the daily pivot zone.

Intraday, H1 and M15 EMAs continue to cap rallies in the 1.42–1.45 band, with RSI stuck sub-50.

Price breaks below 1.38–1.39, expanding intraday volatility and dragging daily RSI closer to the low 30s.

Selling extends toward the 1.30–1.27 area (daily lower Bollinger band and psychological zone), where a more meaningful oversold condition could finally form.

In this path, XRP grinds lower in legs, not in a straight line. Expect short, sharp bounces as shorts take profit, but with the broader direction still down until key resistance levels are convincingly reclaimed.

What invalidates the bearish scenario?

A sustained move back above 1.45, followed by a daily close over 1.51 (EMA20), would start to break the bearish narrative. If that move is backed by RSI reclaiming 50+ on both H1 and D1, the downtrend would be in doubt, and bears would have to reassess their positioning.

Positioning, Risk, and Uncertainty

The XRP price is in an established downtrend, in a market that is clearly risk-off, and in an environment of extreme fear. That combination usually rewards patience and disciplined level-by-level trading, not aggressive bets in either direction.

For directional traders, the important thing is timeframe alignment and respecting where structure actually changes:

If you are trading the daily trend, the bias is down until price starts closing above 1.51 on a consistent basis.

If you are trading intraday, your battlefield is roughly 1.38–1.45, with tight ranges and low ATR on the lower timeframes.

Volatility is moderate but can expand quickly if 1.38 breaks or if the broader market moves out of extreme fear. Uncertainty remains high: sentiment is fragile, and any macro or regulatory headline can flip the tape in either direction.

In summary, XRP is in a controlled bearish regime. The market is not pricing in a collapse, but it is also not willing to pay up for risk. Until the key levels outlined above are reclaimed or cleanly broken, treating this as a trend-following environment with respect for volatility and liquidity makes more sense than trying to call heroic tops or bottoms.

Societe Generale has extended its digital euro ambitions with an xrpl stablecoin move that embeds bank-grade compliance into a major public blockchain.

Societe Generale brings EUR CoinVertible to XRP Ledger

The digital-asset arm of Societe Generale, SG-FORGE, has deployed its euro stablecoin EUR CoinVertible on the XRP Ledger, adding to existing implementations on Ethereum and Solana. The rollout, disclosed in a February 18, 2026 press statement, marks another bank issued stablecoins entry into the XRPL ecosystem with a clear institutional and regulatory focus.

In the release, SG-FORGE presented the XRP Ledger integration as part of a broader multi chain deployment strategy, explicitly listing it alongside Ethereum and Solana rather than treating it as an isolated pilot. Moreover, the firm said it expects the decision to “increase adoption” by leveraging XRPL performance characteristics such as scalability, transaction speed, and low fees on what it described as a “secure and decentralized Layer 1 blockchain.”

Institutional focus and infrastructure narrative

That “Layer 1” description signals the intended audience: institutions prioritizing predictable settlement and operational risk controls rather than speculative retail flows. However, SG-FORGE’s parallel social media messaging leaned further into infrastructure language, emphasizing performance, cost profile, and network architecture while downplaying community culture or token-centric narratives.

Cassie Craddock, Ripple‘s managing director for UK & Europe, highlighted the institutional framing as she celebrated the go-live. “Delighted that EUR CoinVertible is live on the XRP Ledger! A win for the ecosystem. Proud to have Ripple’s custody tech powering this milestone,” she wrote, underscoring how a societe generale stablecoin may bolster perceptions of XRPL in traditional finance.

Ripple custody and trading use cases

Ripple’s role goes beyond branding support. SG-FORGE stated that the launch on XRPL is “supported by Ripple’s custody solution,” confirming a technical integration with the company’s infrastructure. Moreover, the bank identified next steps that appear tailored to professional users, including potential inclusion of EUR CoinVertible in Ripple‘s product suite and using the asset as collateral in trading workflows.

A Ripple employee, Luke Judges, reinforced the depth of the partnership in public comments. He pointed out that “a top 10 European bank with $1.8TN in assets does not follow XRP ledger community norms or niceties and has their own compliance reqs & timescale for announcements,” a statement that underlines the stringent governance and disclosure standards around the stablecoin societe generale product.

Regulation, MiCA alignment and roadmap delivery

For SG-FORGE, the deployment also reflects a longer-term, regulation-first strategy. Back in November 2024, the firm publicly stated its intention to bring its MiCA compliant stablecoin to the XRP Ledger as part of a plan to expand usage across institutional channels. That earlier signal aligns closely with the rationale highlighted in the latest announcement, indicating that the launch was a planned roadmap milestone rather than a tactical experiment.

Jean-Marc Stenger, CEO of SG-FORGE, framed the move as the next step in that regulated product journey. “The successful euro coinvertible launch on the XRP Ledger is a new step. We look forward to further innovation and expanding the reach,” he said, suggesting future integrations and use cases as the xrp ledger adoption story matures around compliant, euro-denominated instruments.

Market backdrop for XRP

The integration arrives as the broader XRPL stablecoin narrative continues to evolve, with banks and fintechs exploring tokenized cash instruments under Europe’s fast-approaching MiCA deadlines. At the time of the announcement, XRP changed hands at $1.42, offering a snapshot of market conditions as Societe Generale‘s digital euro joined the network.

Overall, the EUR CoinVertible expansion to XRPL deepens the link between regulated European banking and public blockchain rails, while reinforcing Ripple’s role in custody and institutional connectivity.

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