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What the Data Really Shows
Bitcoin cycles have a rhythm. For years, traders and analysts have watched its four-year heartbeat, timing peaks, corrections, and bear markets. But lately, a narrative has emerged across Twitter and YouTube: the four-year cycle is dead. According to some, the market didn’t feel as euphoric, altcoins didn’t rally, and therefore, the established rhythm is supposedly broken.
Is it really? Let’s dig into the data, historical trends, and market structure to separate narrative from reality.
The History Speaks: Peaks in the Fourth Quarter
The four-year cycle is rooted in history. If we examine previous market tops, a clear pattern emerges. Bitcoin’s cycle peaks occurred in:
Q4 2013Q4 2017Q4 2021Q4 2025
Notice the consistency. Despite differing market conditions, Bitcoin topped when it historically does. This isn’t luck—it’s pattern recognition. Claims that the cycle is broken often rely on altcoins underperforming or personal expectations of price surges, neither of which invalidate Bitcoin’s historic rhythm.
A deeper look at returns on investment (ROI) from the cycle lows to peaks confirms this. The 2025 cycle topped on day 162, just three days off the prior cycle’s peak and six days earlier than the one before that. That’s remarkably close alignment.
Bear Market Dynamics: Why the Noise Confuses Traders
Bear markets have a structure that confuses many. In bull markets, Bitcoin often trends down before explosive moves upward. In bear markets, the opposite happens: it can trend up for weeks or months before a sharp breakdown.
This explains why midterm-year rallies in 2026 may feel counterintuitive. Bitcoin found a low in February and rallied into March, mirroring prior midterm-year patterns in 2014, 2018, and 2022. These upward movements often lull bulls into a false sense of security, only for the market to break lower quickly.
The takeaway: short-term trends during bear markets don’t negate the larger cycle.
Indicators and the Search for the Bottom
Many traders want certainty—signals that the bear market has ended. There are several metrics often cited:
Historical balance price: Bitcoin has historically bottomed below this mark. Today’s price sits well above it.
Supply in profit vs. loss: Bear market lows typically occur after these metrics cross. They haven’t yet.
MVRV Z-Score: Historically bottoms below zero in bear markets. Currently above zero.
There’s no single metric that guarantees a bottom. For every indicator suggesting support, there’s another pointing to more downside. Recognizing this duality is crucial. Premature “bottom calls” often come from those who missed the initial bear market prediction, incentivizing them to justify why the low is in now.
Narratives vs. Data
Bitcoin is notorious for narratives. Every rise and dip is explained by institutions, macro trends, or supposed “super cycles.” Yet these explanations often fail to predict actual market behavior.
In bear markets, trends can appear bullish before collapsing. In bull markets, trends can look bearish before sudden breakouts. Understanding these patterns is key. Bitcoin’s behavior is not random—it follows structural tendencies that repeat with remarkable consistency.
Midterm Year Patterns: February Lows and March Rallies
Zooming in on midterm years offers another perspective. Each cycle shows a recurring pattern: a low in February, followed by a rally in March, then a gradual decline. 2026 follows this template. The question isn’t whether the four-year cycle is broken—it’s about timing the lower highs that define the rest of the bear market.
Traders asking “is the bottom in?” must consider history: midterm years rarely see definitive lows this early. Watching for lower highs in late March or early April aligns with decades of data.
Why Expectations Skew Perception
Many analysts are influenced by high expectations. When predicted altcoin rallies or price surges fail to materialize, the natural reaction is to assume something broke. But history shows Bitcoin consistently peaks and enters bear markets within predictable windows.
Overestimating the intensity of a bull run doesn’t invalidate the cycle. It merely reflects human bias. The four-year rhythm remains intact, regardless of hype or disappointment.
Key Takeaways for Traders
The four-year cycle is alive – Bitcoin continues to follow historical timing patterns.
Bear markets have counterintuitive trends – Upward trends can precede sharp declines.
Indicators are not absolute – Balance price, MVRV Z-Score, and supply in profit/loss are helpful, but not guarantees.
Expect volatility, not perfection – Patterns repeat, but market emotions and narratives create noise.
Midterm years are predictable – February lows, March rallies, and subsequent declines are historically consistent.

How does your trading strategy account for historical cycles versus short-term narratives?
Are you relying on a single indicator, or multiple metrics, before calling a bottom?
How do you separate hype-driven price action from structural market trends?
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is more than just a number—it’s a reflection of behavioral and economic rhythms. Ignoring it invites unnecessary risk. Understanding it gives context to price swings, rallies, and the quiet periods between them.
Cycles repeat not because markets are static, but because human behavior and macro patterns persist. Pretending this time is different may be tempting, but the data tells a simpler story: the four-year cycle remains unbroken, guiding Bitcoin through peaks, troughs, and everything in between.

The recent crypto cycle has been unusual. While Bitcoin captured most of the attention, many altcoins struggled to show strong momentum. Even Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, barely moved beyond its previous cycle high from 2021.
Now that the market has cooled, investors are asking an important question: how strong is Ethereum’s long-term foundation?
A recent research report from Kulpa Research sparked debate by presenting a bearish thesis on ETH. The report challenges some bullish assumptions and highlights risks linked to Ethereum’s recent upgrades, network activity, and tokenomics.
This article breaks down the key arguments and what they might mean for the future of Ethereum.
Ethereum’s Core Use Cases
Despite criticism, Ethereum remains the backbone of many parts of the crypto economy. Its two most important roles today are:
Stablecoin settlement layer
Major stablecoins like USDT and USDC rely heavily on Ethereum.
Tokenization of real-world assets (RWA)
Financial institutions increasingly use Ethereum to tokenize assets such as bonds, funds, and commodities.
Because of this, Ethereum still hosts a large portion of DeFi activity and institutional blockchain experiments.
The Fusaka Upgrade and Network Growth
In December 2025, Ethereum introduced a major upgrade known as Fusaka.
The upgrade increased the gas limit from 30 million to 60 million, aiming to improve scalability and reduce transaction costs.
The immediate results looked impressive:
Ethereum transactions surgedActive wallet addresses increasedNetwork activity reached new highs
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin even suggested that the upgrade helped address Ethereum’s famous blockchain trilemma — balancing decentralization, security, and scalability.
For many investors, these metrics looked like a strong bullish signal.
But not everyone agrees.
A Different View: The Bearish Thesis
According to the research report, some of Ethereum’s positive metrics may be misleading.
Prominent Ethereum supporter Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies, argued that rising transactions and addresses show growing adoption.
At one point, he even predicted that ETH could reach $9,000 to $15,000.
However, the report claims that much of the network activity may not represent genuine user growth.
Instead, it may come from something far less positive.
The Rise of Address Poisoning Attacks
One of the most surprising findings involves a scam technique known as address poisoning.
Here’s how it works:
Attackers send tiny “dust” transactions to many wallets.
These transactions come from addresses that look similar to legitimate ones.
Victims may accidentally copy the fake address from their transaction history.
Funds are then mistakenly sent to scammers.
Before Fusaka, such attacks were more common on cheaper networks like BNB Smart Chain.
But after Ethereum transaction fees dropped dramatically, the network became more attractive for attackers.
Research suggests that:
95% of new active wallets could be linked to poisoning activity
Dust transactions may account for over 18–22% of Ethereum transactions
This means some of the network’s growth could actually be spam activity rather than real economic usage.
The Tokenomics Problem
The report also raises concerns about Ethereum’s economic model.
Ethereum’s supply dynamics rely heavily on fee burning, introduced through EIP‑1559.
Normally:
High transaction demand increases fees
More ETH gets burned
Supply becomes deflationary
But after the Fusaka upgrade:
Transaction fees dropped by more than 90%
Less ETH is burned
Validator earnings decline
Lower rewards could reduce incentives for validators to secure the network.
That raises questions about Ethereum’s long-term economic sustainability if the trend continues.
Institutional Perspective
Some analysts believe the situation may simply reflect market cycles.
High fees during 2021 were driven by speculation and NFT hype.
Today’s environment is more focused on real usage and infrastructure growth.
Even with these challenges, Ethereum still dominates several key sectors:
DeFi platforms
Stablecoin settlement
Real-world asset tokenization
Estimates suggest over 50% of tokenized RWAs operate on Ethereum, giving the network a strong institutional advantage.
The Next Upgrade: Glamsterdam
Ethereum’s roadmap continues.
A future upgrade known as Glamsterdam is expected to arrive in 2026.
The goal is to:
Improve censorship resistance
Optimize transaction execution
Increase scalability further
However, the upgrade could also increase the gas limit dramatically — potentially to 200 million.
If demand does not grow alongside capacity, it could put additional pressure on validator earnings and ETH supply dynamics.
Security Reminder for Crypto Users
Regardless of market outlook, one lesson is clear.
Address poisoning attacks are increasing across the crypto ecosystem.
To stay safe:
Always verify wallet addresses carefully
Avoid copying addresses directly from transaction history
Confirm addresses using explorers like Etherscan
A few seconds of verification can prevent major losses.

Despite the current concerns, Ethereum remains one of the most important infrastructures in the crypto industry.
It still leads in:
decentralized finance
stablecoin activity
tokenized assets
Bearish reports highlight real issues, but they also push the ecosystem to improve.
Historically, bear markets have been the time when the most important crypto innovations are built.
If Ethereum’s developers can address the emerging challenges, the network may emerge from this period stronger than before.
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