M9_Crypto

Key points
TSX up 1.5% at 32,470.98
Posts biggest gain since October 14
Miners lead as gold rebounds
Unemployment rate falls to 6.5%
By Fergal Smith
Canada's main stock index rounded out a volatile week on a strong note on Friday as metal prices rallied and investors took advantage of recent cheapening of the market.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index TSX ended up 476.38 points, or 1.5%, at 32,470.98, posting its biggest advance since October 14 and clawing back most of the previous day's sharp decline. For the week, the index was up 1.7%.
Wall Street also jumped, with chip stocks rallying on expectations they would benefit from increased spending on Al data centers by Amazon and Alphabet."Today seems a little bit of a relief rally and investors are picking up some of the bargains that have been created by the sell-off pretty much across the board," said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.
"We're just getting into earnings season for the TSX. Similar to what we're seeing in the United States, earnings are coming in quite strong and that should be the expectation that we get pretty decent earnings."
Domestic employment data was mixed. It showed that the economy unexpectedly shed 24,800 jobs in January but the unemployment rate dipped to a 16-month low of 6.5% as fewer people looked for work.
"The positive is that the rout we've seen in the metals sector it looks like it's perhaps behind us with the strength we've seen in the gold names today and other precious metals," Petursson said.
The materials group TTMT, which includes metal mining shares jumped 3.9%. Gold GOLD rallied 4.8%, helped by bargain hunting, a slightly weaker U.S. dollar and lingering concerns over U.S.-Iran talks in Oman, while silver XAGUSD1! recovered from a 1-1/2-month low.The price of oil CL1! also rose, settling 0.4% higher at $63.55 a barrel, which helped lift energy TTEN by 1.9%.
Heavily weighted financials (.SPTTFS) added 0.9% and industrials ended 1.5% higher.
Nine of 10 major sectors posted gains. The exception was the defensive utilities sector, which ended 0.2% lower.
The price of oil CL1! also rose, settling 0.4% higher at $63.55 a barrel, which helped lift energy TTEN by 1.9%.
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Bitcoin has experienced one of its sharpest corrections in recent years, slipping below the $65,000 level and reaching its lowest price since October 2024. The decline reflects persistent selling pressure across the crypto market, accompanied by deteriorating macro sentiment, reduced liquidity, and cautious positioning among institutional participants. Recent price action suggests the market is entering a critical phase where confidence, rather than technical levels alone, may determine the next directional move.
Amid this uncertainty, the Binance SAFU Fund disclosed the purchase of an additional 3,600 BTC, valued at roughly $233.37 million. While such acquisitions do not guarantee a market reversal, they indicate continued strategic accumulation by major industry players even during periods of elevated volatility.
Market sentiment has deteriorated markedly. Several sentiment indicators now sit near levels last observed during the 2022 bear market, when risk appetite contracted sharply and investors adopted defensive positioning. This environment typically coincides withMarket sentiment has deteriorated markedly. Several sentiment indicators now sit near levels last observed during the 2022 bear market, when risk appetite contracted sharply and investors adopted defensive positioning. This environment typically coincides with reduced speculative activity, heightened caution among retail traders, and increased scrutiny from institutional capital.

Institutional Accumulation Emerges Amid Prolonged Capitulation Phase

Arkham data indicates that the Binance SAFU fund has continued accumulating Bitcoin, bringing its total recent purchases to approximately 6,230 BTC, valued near $434.5 million. While such activity signals ongoing participation from large institutional entities, it does not necessarily imply an imminent price recovery. Historically, significant purchases during corrective phases often occur alongside broader market stress rather than marking an immediate turning point.

Current market conditions increasingly resemble a classic capitulation phase. Capitulation typically emerges when sustained price declines force weaker holders to exit positions, often at losses, leading to elevated exchange inflows, compressed liquidity, and sharp sentiment deterioration. These episodes can persist longer than many participants anticipate, particularly when macroeconomic uncertainty, risk-off positioning, and tightening liquidity conditions coincide.

Importantly, capitulation does not follow a fixed timeline. In prior cycles, similar phases unfolded over weeks or even months before a durable bottom formed. During these periods, volatility tends to remain elevated, failed rallies are common, and confidence rebuilds gradually rather than abruptly.

The key variables to monitor include exchange flows, derivatives leverage, spot demand recovery, and broader macro signals. Until those metrics stabilize, the base case remains continued market fragility. Large-scale accumulation by institutional funds may provide structural support, but it rarely prevents extended consolidation or further downside during capitulation environments.
Weekly Structure Shows Breakdown Below Key Support

From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-week moving average while approaching the 100-week average. Historically, a critical dynamic support during corrective phases. The 200-week average remains far below, indicating the long-term macro trend has not fully reversed, although intermediate momentum has clearly weakened.
Volume dynamics also matter here. The recent selloff shows rising participation compared with earlier consolidation periods, suggesting distribution rather than simple profit-taking. However, sustained high volume without further price acceleration downward could signal seller exhaustion.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $70K area, downside risk toward the $60K-$55K zone remains plausible. Conversely, stabilization above current levels would indicate absorption, a necessary precursor for any meaningful recovery.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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Key points
Wall Street stocks rally but Nasdaq heads for weekly lossGreenback dips as risk assets catch a bidCryptocurrencies rebound after steep lossesOil rises as US-Iran talks get under wayBy Sinéad Carew and Sophie KiderlinBy Sinéad Carew and Sophie Kiderlin

MSCI's global equities gauge was up more than 1% on Friday after falling in five of the last six sessions, while bitcoin also attempted a comeback from a sharp selloff and spot gold and silver prices attempted to regain some lost ground.

Oil prices were choppy as investors monitored talks between the United States and Iran and assessed the possibility of a supply-disrupting Middle East conflict.

An equities rally on Wall Street boosted the global index as investors crept back S5INFT into U.S. technology stocks particularly semiconductors. Tech shares sold off massively in the prior three sessions on concerns around spending and competition disruption related to the artificial intelligence boom.Amazon.com AMZN shares fell sharply after it announced huge spending plans late on Thursday, upping the total for a combined 2026 Al spending spree by Amazon, Microsoft Platforms∞ META to an estimated $600 billion. The sector was also hit by worries about Al disruption in the software and data services sectors.

MSFT, Alphabet G GOOG and Meta

Regarding the S&P's bounce on Friday, Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut, pointed to technical buying after the benchmark index hit its 100-day moving average on Thursday, adding to some support from bitcoin's turnaround and investor reconsideration of Al fears.

"The market looks like it was getting a bit overdone to the downside so you're seeing a rebound in technology and some industrials and financials stocks. It was a healthy selloff," said Pavlik, also suggesting that investors had recalculated when Al disruption to the software industry would materialize.

"Maybe in the future, but it's not happening right away and the realization that this is not something that's happening today brought a little bit
cooler heads to the market," he said

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But gains were mostly concentrated in chipmakers, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index SOX rallying 5.7% after three daily losses in a row. The S&P 500's software and services index (.SPLRCIS) climbed a modest 1.7% after losing more than 17% in the last seven sessions.

On Wall Street at 2:45 p.m. ET (1945 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average 30 DJI rose 1,069.60 points, or 2.19%, to 49,978.32 after briefly breaching the 50,000 milestone for the first time. The S&P 500 500 SPX rose 113.48 points, or 1.67%, to 6,911.88 and the Nasdaq Composite IXIC rose 413.68 points, or 1.84%, to 22,954.27.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe EURONEXT:IACWI rose 13.53 points, or 1.32%, to 1,040.77, eying its biggest one-day gain since November. But the index of stocks from 47 countries was still showing a decline for the week.

Earlier, the pan-European STOXX 600 COO SXXP index finished up 0.89% but it fell slightly for the week.Bitcoin BTCUSD gained 11.44% to $70,337.93 after nearing $60,000 on Thursday. Ethereum ETHUSD rose 11.18% to $2,053.26.

"Whether or not this bounce continues is questionable. It's brought some questions into bitcoin as a store of value and the relative safety that it brings but, when it bounces, you don't get the margin calls like you would probably be getting when it's selling off," said Pavlik.

In the precious metals markets, gold advanced with help from bargain hunting, a slightly weaker dollar and lingering concerns over U.S.-Iran talks in Oman. Silver recovered from a 1-1/2-month low.1:59 AM

Spot gold GOLD rose 3.81% to $4,951.46 an ounce while U.S. gold futures (GCc1) rose 2% to $4,958.50 an ounce. Spot silver $XAGUSD 1! rose 8.24% to $77.12 an ounce.
SURVEY SHOWS IMPROVEMENT IN U.S. CONSUMER SENTIMENT
In currencies, the safe-haven dollar index was lower as risk assets rebounded. Earlier, the greenback pared some losses after a U.S. survey showed that consumer sentiment improved marginally in early February amid lingering worries about the labor market and the rising cost of living.
The dollar index DXY, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.32% to 97.64, with the $EURUSD up 0.36% at $1 .1817. euroin which Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi aims to strengthen her majority in parliament.
In U.S. Treasuries, two-year U.S. Treasury yields hit a more than three-month low before turning higher, following a sharp decline on Thursday when unexpectedly weak labor market data raised concerns that the jobs market is worsening faster than thought.
On the U.S. monetary policy front, traders were still betting that the next Fed rate cut would be in June, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
The 2-year note (US2YT=RR) yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 1.5 basis points to 3.498%, from 3.483% late on Thursday.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes US10Y was flat at 4.21% while the 30-year bond (US30YT=RR) yield fell 0.4 basis points to 4.8592%.
In energy markets, oil prices settled slightly higher as traders waited for news on the U.S.-Iran talks. Iran's top diplomat said the nuclear talks mediated by Oman were off to a good start and set to continue The remarks could allav
Sterling GBPUSD strengthened 0.67% to $1.3615.
But against the Japanese yen USDJPY, the dollar strengthened 0.05% to 157.11, with Japanese markets set to come back into focus as investors keep a close eye on Sunday's election, in which Drimo Minictor Congo Tokoichi
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