Some things I've learned after hodling bitcoin since early 2017
1. Never believe anyone's price predictions. 2. Don't "diversify" into other cryptos; none of them are actually decentralized, everything except bitcoin is a shitcoin (yes, really), and it's all gambling. The point of bitcoin is not gambling, but to end modern day slavery (fiat currency). 3. When everyone you know is talking about bitcoin, you're at the top of a bull market. You'll likely be too exuberant to realize it though. It will be obvious in hindsight. 4. Don't "trade some altcoins on the side to get more bitcoin". You are not that smart, and the overwhelming probability is that you will get wrecked. 5. DCA into bitcoin. Ignore your emotions. Don't try to time the market. Just stack what you can every paycheck. 6. Don't be too excited about bitcoin; people will feel like you're scamming them even though you're just trying help. 7. Go to meetups & conferences. Don't be isolated. Bitcoiners are generally very awesome people. 8. When people ask you about how to buy bitcoin, send them to a BITCOIN-ONLY company. Example for why: My cousin bought bitcoin (on Coinbase) during the bull market, then sold it for shiba on the same platform and now she pretty much lost everything. Bitcoin-only companies are the safest option to keep newbies from doing newbie things. 9. Be on #bitcoin twitter and nostr. Obviously if you're reading this, you're already here...but I didn't get on twitter until 2020 and can tell you that it's a lot less lonely hodling bitcoin when you see a bunch of other people on this platform experiencing the same things you are. 10. Be skeptical of influencers. Even me (I'm not a huge account, but still). Some are good, some are bad. Even if they have good intentions, their judgement can be clouded by bad incentives. 11. Stop trying to convince everyone you know that bitcoin will make everything better (even though it will). Instead, be a good resource for the people who eventually reach out to you about it. Be known as "the bitcoin guy" and let people come to you when they're ready. Have good content prepared for them to read/watch when they do. That is all. It's been a great ride so far and I'm happy to know you guys. #bitcoin #dyor #crypto2023
50% of Bitcoin's past 24 months ended in gains: Economist
Half of the months over the past two years have delivered positive returns for Bitcoin, which may be a strong sign that it will be higher than its current price in December, an economist said. “50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now,” economist Timothy Peterson said in an X post on Saturday. In 2025, Bitcoin posted gains in January, April, May, June, July, and September, while the other six months ended lower, according to CoinGlass. Peterson explained that he uses the metric to count the number of positive months in any 24-month period to identify possible inflection points.
Ten months from the time of publication lands on Dec. 22. Traders on crypto prediction platform Polymarket are giving December a 17% chance of being Bitcoin’s best month of 2026, just behind November at 18%. Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest-performing month on average since 2013, with an average return of 41.13%, according to CoinGlass. Peterson’s forecast comes as Bitcoin’s price trades almost 25% below its level at the beginning of this year, at $68,173 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.
Analysts are divided on how the asset will perform in the near future. MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said on Friday, “I would expect next week to be green for BTC.” “Finalizing this month with a massive candle and a streak of five red months,” he said. Meanwhile, other analysts see more downside ahead. Veteran trader Peter Brand recently told Magazine that Bitcoin’s “real bottom will not occur until October 2026.” Related: Crypto market retraces almost all 2024-2025 US election pump gains Peterson’s forecast comes as crypto market sentiment continues to decline. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posted an “Extreme Fear” score of 9 on Sunday, signaling extreme caution among investors. However, crypto sentiment platform Santiment said on Friday that the “drying up” of Bitcoin price predictions on social media among crypto market participants is a healthy indicator as sentiment returns to “neutral” territory. #TrumpNewTariffs $BTC
There’s a lot happening in crypto right now, and one date keeps coming up: March 1. Some investors are wondering if that could mark the beginning of the next altcoin rally. The reason? Major regulatory movement in Washington. March 1 Could Be a Turning Point The White House has set a March 1 deadline to resolve the stablecoin rewards dispute that has been holding up the broader crypto market structure bill, often called the Clarity Act. This bill aims to create clearer rules for crypto in the United States. And clarity is something the market has lacked for years. According to prediction markets, there is currently an 83% chance that the Clarity Act will be signed into law in 2026. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has even said he believes there is an 80 to 90% chance the bill passes by April. If that happens, it could remove one of the biggest uncertainties hanging over crypto. Why Stablecoin Rewards Matter The main issue slowing the bill has been stablecoin rewards. Banks want limits on crypto platforms offering yield on idle stablecoin balances. They worry that customers could move money out of traditional banks into crypto if rewards are too attractive. Crypto firms argue that banning yield would hurt innovation and make the U.S. less competitive. Now, a compromise may be forming. Instead of allowing passive rewards just for holding stablecoins, platforms may be allowed to offer rewards tied to activity, such as transactions or participation. If this issue is resolved by March 1, the broader bill could move forward quickly. Why This Could Trigger an Altcoin Rally Regulatory uncertainty has been one of the biggest reasons institutions have stayed cautious. Large investors do not like gray areas. They want clear rules from the SEC and CFTC before committing serious capital. If the Clarity Act advances, confidence could return. Markets often move before the news becomes official. That’s why some investors are watching late February and early March closely. #altsesaon #altcoins $ETH $BNB $XRP
January Exchange Data Report: Binance Global CEX Spot Growth With $409B in Volume (+12% MoM)
In January 2026, the spot trading volume of major exchanges increased by approximately 10% compared with December 2025. The top three exchanges by month-on-month change were Bitfinex (+67%), Uniswap (+62%), and Upbit (+44%). The bottom three were HTX (-17%), Bybit (-16%), and KuCoin (-14%). In January 2026, the derivatives trading volume of major exchanges increased by approximately 0.5% compared with December 2025. The top three exchanges by month-on-month change were Hyperliquid (+46%), Crypto.com (+18%), and Gate (+11%). The bottom three were MEXC (-27%), KuCoin (-17%), and Deribit (-8%). In January 2026, the website traffic of major exchanges decreased by approximately 0.3% compared with December 2025. The top three exchanges by month-on-month change were Upbit (+9%), KuCoin (+7%), and Bitfinex (+7%). The bottom three were HTX (-22%), Bitget (-9%), and MEXC (-8%). Note: The following data may involve significant wash trading or bot-related activity. The dataset has been preprocessed, including outlier removal, metric normalization, and methodological adjustments. Spot and derivatives data are sourced from CoinGecko; traffic data are sourced from Similarweb.
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1. Bitcoin Tightens Grip On Crypto Market Amid 50% Altcoin Slump 2. XRP Social Sentiment Hits 5-Week High—BTC, ETH Mood Still Off 3. Ripple's Brad Garlinghouse says CLARITY bill has '90% chance' of pa... 💭 MY VIEW: No clear direction⚪. I'm staying on the sidelines today. Better to miss a good trade than make a bad one.
📋TRADING SETUP FOR TODAY:
🎯BTC Range Trading: Range: $67,000 - $69,000 → Wait for breakout, no FOMO
⚠️RISK DISCLAIMER: This is NOT financial advice! I'm just sharing my view. Always do your own research & only risk what you can afford to lose.
💬How do YOU see the market today? Bullish or bearish? Drop your take below!👇