GEMINI

At the beginning of the year, the institutional outlook for #Bitcoin was clearly bearish. When #BTC moved above $60,000, the Coinbase Premium Gap dropped to -$96, showing weak demand from professional investors, while spot Bitcoin ETF netflows averaged -$210M, reflecting strong capital outflows. This combined selling pressure weighed heavily on the market.

Now the situation is improving. The #coinbase Premium Gap has narrowed to -$23.8, indicating that selling pressure is easing, and #ETF netflows have recovered to -$19M, meaning outflows have slowed significantly. Although both metrics are still slightly negative, the direction has shifted. If they turn positive, it could provide stronger support for Bitcoin and improve overall market conditions.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

From December 13 onward, the #Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has remained below zero, except on January 5 and January 14.

The market structure currently reflects a strongly defensive stance. Put open interest sits well above spot exposure, showing clear preference for downside protection. In the February expiry, the main concentration lies between $70K and $60K. Looking further out, longer dated contracts extend lower, building from $50K down toward $30K into year end.

Hedging demand remains steady across different maturities. On the upside, call options are clustered above $120K in the second half of the year, suggesting participants are comfortable selling strength while keeping protection against deeper downside risks. At this stage, there are no visible signs of a sharp rebound developing.

In the past 24 hours, a total of 70,428 traders faced liquidation, bringing the combined losses to $151.21 million. The largest single liquidation occurred on Bybit, involving a #BTCUSDT order valued at $2.01 million.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Dealers are short gamma between 70K and 58K, so if price starts moving down in that range, their hedging could accelerate the selloff. On the other hand, there’s a strong gamma cluster around 75K, which suggests that level could act as a bounce zone. Below 70K increases downside risk, while a move toward 75K may support a short term recovery.

#Ethereum’s recent correction is now putting real pressure on whales, as unrealized profits have turned negative across all major large holder groups, including wallets holding 1k to 10k ETH, 10k to 100k ETH, and even 100k+ ETH. What makes this situation interesting is that #ETH hasn’t even revisited its April low yet, meaning big holders are already sitting on paper losses before a full retest of major support.

If the price declines further, some whales could face stronger pressure to sell, which may increase volatility in the market. At the same time, periods where large holders are under stress have often coincided with medium term bottom formations, and for now ETH is still managing to hold its key levels.

Following the new all time high in early October, US Spot ETF balances have experienced the sharpest drawdown of the current cycle, shedding approximately 100.3K #BTC. This sizable reduction points to institutions actively scaling back exposure rather than increasing positions.

The persistent outflows suggest capital rotation into safer assets or a wait and see approach amid macro uncertainty. Such large scale de-risking has placed structural pressure on the market, contributing to continued weakness. With institutional flows turning negative, the broader environment has shifted firmly toward a defensive, risk off tone across the crypto space.

Over the past 100 days, more than $730 billion has been wiped from the crypto market. This signals a massive short term capital outflow, declining investor confidence, and extreme volatility. It’s not just a typical correction. Liquidity has tightened, leverage has been flushed out, and overall risk appetite has fallen. Historically, phases like this have often acted as major reset points in the market cycle.

With #Bitcoin around $67K, unrealized losses equal roughly 19% of the total market cap. This signals notable stress in the market and growing pressure on investors. The structure looks similar to May 2022, when high paper losses reflected weak sentiment and increased volatility. Right now, the key focus is whether the market stabilizes or sees further selling.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Major crypto assets have been showing a negative 90 day simple moving average in their open interest changes since October 2025. This trend points to a continued unwind of speculative positions and tightening liquidity in the derivatives space. Traders are still holding back on leverage, keeping the overall market in a defensive, risk off stance.

Since February, every attempt to reclaim $70K has been rejected due to clear demand exhaustion, and even net realized profits above $5M per hour haven’t been enough to support a sustained breakout. This is a sharp contrast to Q3 2025, when profit realization surged to $200-350M per hour and price continued climbing on the back of strong liquidity and aggressive buying. In the current thin liquidity environment, with limited spot demand and weak follow through, a sustained recovery into the $70K-$80K range remains structurally challenging.

After a strong phase of profit taking, #Bitcoin’s 30 day Realized Profits to Value average has now pulled back sharply. The earlier surge in realized gains is fading, showing that the intensity of sellers locking in profits has cooled. However, the metric still sits above the historical capitulation band. In previous cycles, true capitulation has only appeared when this ratio dropped much lower, reflecting widespread fear and forced selling.

Right now, the data suggests the market is stabilizing rather than collapsing. Profit realization is slowing, but there is no clear sign of broad panic yet. If the indicator continues to decline toward past capitulation levels, it could signal deeper stress ahead. If it holds above that zone, it may point to a controlled reset instead of a full capitulation phase.

Over the last 30 days, Realized Cap flows have dropped sharply into negative territory, marking one of the most significant outflow periods since the 2022 bear market. This reflects sustained capital exiting the space rather than short term volatility. At the same time, the combined net position change of #BTC and #ETH has decisively turned lower, showing that market participants are cutting exposure instead of adding to positions.

Meanwhile, stablecoin growth remains flat, indicating limited fresh liquidity entering the system. Altogether, the data points to tightening liquidity conditions, reduced buying pressure, and a cautious market structure that may struggle to regain strength without renewed capital inflows.

Altcoin trading volume has dropped by nearly 50% as capital rotates back into #Bitcoin. After a sharp correction, #Bitcoin is now consolidating between $65,000 and $72,000, with strong activity from whales and institutional investors. On February 7, #BTC reclaimed dominance on Binance accounting for 36.8% of total trading volume, while altcoins fell sharply from 59.2% in November to 33.6% by mid February. This kind of shift typically happens during uncertain market conditions, when investors reduce exposure to altcoins and move funds into Bitcoin for relative stability.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

During the first sharp drop in November 2025, the market absorbed heavy selling very aggressively, similar to what we saw after the LUNA and FTX crashes. Buyers stepped in with strong conviction, and the rebound was fast and decisive.

In comparison, the recent move down to $60k did show some accumulation, but the reaction was clearly weaker. The bounce lacked urgency and strong follow through, suggesting that buyer confidence is not as strong as it was during previous capitulation phases.

Still Extreme Fear 👀