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For-Exx Kripto

Cryptocurrency Analysis, Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis ///// Youtube - Twitter : @ForExxKripto
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Ethereum has been stuck between 2150 and 1800 for a week. While it remains in this range, we can't really talk about a specific direction, but the possibility of a downward move seems to be increasing. $ETH
Ethereum has been stuck between 2150 and 1800 for a week. While it remains in this range, we can't really talk about a specific direction, but the possibility of a downward move seems to be increasing.
$ETH
$AVAX dropped below 8.41 again but managed to rise above it with the support of buyers. This level is important; if it closes below this level on the daily chart, the decline may accelerate.
$AVAX dropped below 8.41 again but managed to rise above it with the support of buyers. This level is important; if it closes below this level on the daily chart, the decline may accelerate.
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Baisse (björn)
$BTC clearly broke through the 66764 level, which I indicated as a significant support level, with a long red bar. This decline is said to be driven by large long liquidation positions and whale activity. If it closes the day at or below this level, it could add a milestone towards 57039, which I consistently expect to see.
$BTC clearly broke through the 66764 level, which I indicated as a significant support level, with a long red bar. This decline is said to be driven by large long liquidation positions and whale activity. If it closes the day at or below this level, it could add a milestone towards 57039, which I consistently expect to see.
The Problem with AVAX Isn’t the Technology: Fiat Came In, Value Didn’tAvalanche was once marketed as a “institutional-grade blockchain.” Fast, scalable, and built around the subnet narrative. Capital was supposed to follow. And it did. But the chart tells a different story: fiat arrived, lasting value did not. This contradiction is not accidental. Fiat Inflows ≠ Value Creation The core issue with $AVAX is simple but uncomfortable: fiat inflows did not translate into sustained demand for the token. Institutional funds, ecosystem grants, and infrastructure investments touched the network. But on the token side, this interaction resulted in little more than temporary liquidity. The capital that came in was not positioned to hold AVAX. It was positioned to distribute, fund operations, and exit. This was not investment. It was execution. The Subnet Narrative: Product Without Value Capture Subnets may function well from a technical standpoint. But the critical question remains unanswered: what do they actually contribute to AVAX token demand? In many cases, the economic value generated stays at the application level or leaks outward. The token itself is not a mandatory or irreplaceable carrier of that activity. In crypto, this is where investors get burned: working products combined with weak value capture. Incentive-Driven Activity, Silence Afterward Much of the activity on Avalanche was driven by incentives. While rewards existed, the chain appeared vibrant. When incentives faded, attention followed. This is not a mystery; it is a repeating pattern. Fiat acted as a catalyst, but it failed to create organic buyers. The result was a slow, quiet decline. No panic, no drama—just an empty chart and no new story. The Institutional Capital Myth “Institutional money is coming” is one of crypto’s most recycled slogans. AVAX proved a harder truth: institutional capital does not fall in love with tokens. It arrives with an exit plan. It lifts prices, improves liquidity, and then leaves. If there is no organic demand underneath, what remains is a hollow market structure. Conclusion: What Collapsed Was the Assumption Avalanche may still operate as a functional network. But the market delivered a clear message: fiat inflows alone do not create value. Without clear token economics, durable incentives, and transparent value capture, even the strongest narratives fail to hold price. What happened to AVAX is not unique. It is crypto being reminded—once again—that money entering a system does not mean the story was ever true.

The Problem with AVAX Isn’t the Technology: Fiat Came In, Value Didn’t

Avalanche was once marketed as a “institutional-grade blockchain.”

Fast, scalable, and built around the subnet narrative. Capital was supposed to follow. And it did. But the chart tells a different story: fiat arrived, lasting value did not.
This contradiction is not accidental.
Fiat Inflows ≠ Value Creation

The core issue with $AVAX is simple but uncomfortable:

fiat inflows did not translate into sustained demand for the token.
Institutional funds, ecosystem grants, and infrastructure investments touched the network. But on the token side, this interaction resulted in little more than temporary liquidity. The capital that came in was not positioned to hold AVAX. It was positioned to distribute, fund operations, and exit.

This was not investment. It was execution.

The Subnet Narrative: Product Without Value Capture
Subnets may function well from a technical standpoint.

But the critical question remains unanswered: what do they actually contribute to AVAX token demand?
In many cases, the economic value generated stays at the application level or leaks outward. The token itself is not a mandatory or irreplaceable carrier of that activity.
In crypto, this is where investors get burned:

working products combined with weak value capture.
Incentive-Driven Activity, Silence Afterward

Much of the activity on Avalanche was driven by incentives.

While rewards existed, the chain appeared vibrant. When incentives faded, attention followed. This is not a mystery; it is a repeating pattern.
Fiat acted as a catalyst, but it failed to create organic buyers. The result was a slow, quiet decline. No panic, no drama—just an empty chart and no new story.
The Institutional Capital Myth

“Institutional money is coming” is one of crypto’s most recycled slogans.

AVAX proved a harder truth: institutional capital does not fall in love with tokens. It arrives with an exit plan.
It lifts prices, improves liquidity, and then leaves. If there is no organic demand underneath, what remains is a hollow market structure.
Conclusion: What Collapsed Was the Assumption

Avalanche may still operate as a functional network.

But the market delivered a clear message: fiat inflows alone do not create value.
Without clear token economics, durable incentives, and transparent value capture, even the strongest narratives fail to hold price.
What happened to AVAX is not unique.

It is crypto being reminded—once again—that money entering a system does not mean the story was ever true.
The 96% Reality: What Collapsed in Arbitrum Wasn’t the Price, but the Narrative Arbitrum’s 96% drop from its peak was not a market accident. It was an inevitable outcome. Explaining this collapse through “bear market conditions,” “macro pressure,” or “overall crypto weakness” is a deliberate avoidance of reality. What failed here was not the technology, but the fictional meaning assigned to the token. Arbitrum was built as infrastructure. $ARB , however, was priced as if it were an income-generating asset. This is one of crypto’s cheapest and most persistent lies: A working technology automatically creates a valuable token. The post-airdrop sell-off was not betrayal. It was rational behavior. People sold because there was no clear economic reason to hold. Governance narratives, vague incentive plans, and oversized treasuries failed to offer a credible long-term story for token holders. There was a DAO, but no direction. There was decentralization, but no accountability. Transparency was discussed, but trust was never rebuilt. The real collapse did not come with panic candles. It arrived quietly. Volume faded. Attention disappeared. New buyers stopped coming. In crypto, this is the most lethal scenario: indifference. Arbitrum may still function as a network. But the market delivered a clear verdict: with this token design, this narrative, and this economic structure, price erosion was unavoidable. The 96% decline is not a tragedy. It is crypto confronting itself in the mirror. What is more disturbing than the collapse itself is that the same mistakes are still being repackaged and sold under new names.
The 96% Reality: What Collapsed in Arbitrum Wasn’t the Price, but the Narrative

Arbitrum’s 96% drop from its peak was not a market accident.

It was an inevitable outcome.

Explaining this collapse through “bear market conditions,” “macro pressure,” or “overall crypto weakness” is a deliberate avoidance of reality. What failed here was not the technology, but the fictional meaning assigned to the token.

Arbitrum was built as infrastructure.

$ARB , however, was priced as if it were an income-generating asset. This is one of crypto’s cheapest and most persistent lies:

A working technology automatically creates a valuable token.

The post-airdrop sell-off was not betrayal. It was rational behavior.

People sold because there was no clear economic reason to hold. Governance narratives, vague incentive plans, and oversized treasuries failed to offer a credible long-term story for token holders.

There was a DAO, but no direction.

There was decentralization, but no accountability.

Transparency was discussed, but trust was never rebuilt.

The real collapse did not come with panic candles.

It arrived quietly. Volume faded. Attention disappeared. New buyers stopped coming. In crypto, this is the most lethal scenario: indifference.

Arbitrum may still function as a network.

But the market delivered a clear verdict: with this token design, this narrative, and this economic structure, price erosion was unavoidable.

The 96% decline is not a tragedy.

It is crypto confronting itself in the mirror.

What is more disturbing than the collapse itself is that the same mistakes are still being repackaged and sold under new names.
The Search for Stable Value: The Technical Legacy of USTCIn crypto markets, stability is often reduced to a single number: price parity. One dollar, one peg, one target. Yet the legacy of $USTC demonstrates that stable value is not merely a numerical outcome, but a fragile balance shaped by incentives, liquidity, market behavior, and trust. What USTC ultimately revealed was not a simple failure, but the structural limits of algorithmic stability. USTC was designed around the idea that code and arbitrage could sustain equilibrium without traditional collateral. On paper, the logic was coherent. In reality, it underestimated how quickly static mechanisms break down under stress. When liquidity contracts and confidence weakens, algorithms do not operate in isolation; they function within human psychology. One of USTC’s key technical lessons is that arbitrage alone cannot guarantee stability during systemic pressure. Corrective mechanisms require depth, adaptability, and resilience. Without sufficient liquidity and flexible incentives, systems meant to restore balance can intensify instability instead of containing it. Equally critical is the behavioral layer USTC brought into focus. Stablecoins are not purely mechanical constructs; they are collective belief systems. Expectations, risk perception, and timing play a decisive role. Ignoring this human component turns technical elegance into systemic fragility. Today, USTC exists less as a product and more as a reference point. It offers no blueprint to copy, but raises unavoidable questions for future designs: how liquidity behaves under stress, how incentives adapt when equilibrium fails, and how trust can be rebuilt once symmetry is lost. The technical legacy of USTC ultimately reminds us that stability is not a destination. It is a continuously managed process. Any system that treats stability as a fixed outcome rather than a living balance remains structurally incomplete.

The Search for Stable Value: The Technical Legacy of USTC

In crypto markets, stability is often reduced to a single number: price parity. One dollar, one peg, one target. Yet the legacy of $USTC demonstrates that stable value is not merely a numerical outcome, but a fragile balance shaped by incentives, liquidity, market behavior, and trust. What USTC ultimately revealed was not a simple failure, but the structural limits of algorithmic stability.
USTC was designed around the idea that code and arbitrage could sustain equilibrium without traditional collateral. On paper, the logic was coherent. In reality, it underestimated how quickly static mechanisms break down under stress. When liquidity contracts and confidence weakens, algorithms do not operate in isolation; they function within human psychology.
One of USTC’s key technical lessons is that arbitrage alone cannot guarantee stability during systemic pressure. Corrective mechanisms require depth, adaptability, and resilience. Without sufficient liquidity and flexible incentives, systems meant to restore balance can intensify instability instead of containing it.
Equally critical is the behavioral layer USTC brought into focus. Stablecoins are not purely mechanical constructs; they are collective belief systems. Expectations, risk perception, and timing play a decisive role. Ignoring this human component turns technical elegance into systemic fragility.
Today, USTC exists less as a product and more as a reference point. It offers no blueprint to copy, but raises unavoidable questions for future designs: how liquidity behaves under stress, how incentives adapt when equilibrium fails, and how trust can be rebuilt once symmetry is lost.
The technical legacy of USTC ultimately reminds us that stability is not a destination. It is a continuously managed process. Any system that treats stability as a fixed outcome rather than a living balance remains structurally incomplete.
$LUNC remained within the flag formation, but the flag broke slightly. The positive thing is that if such formations don't work, it usually drops immediately, but it didn't. I think the probability of a 3925 attempt has increased a bit...
$LUNC remained within the flag formation, but the flag broke slightly. The positive thing is that if such formations don't work, it usually drops immediately, but it didn't. I think the probability of a 3925 attempt has increased a bit...
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Baisse (björn)
Arbitrum, a coin I once had a positive view of and believed in, broke through its October 10th support level, paving the way for further declines. It's fallen approximately 97% from its January 11th, 2024 peak, meaning if you invested $10,000 you'd only have $300 left now, if my calculations are correct. The project owners' greed, and even, to go further, their involvement in scams, killed this great coin. Another zero should be added. R.I.P $ARB
Arbitrum, a coin I once had a positive view of and believed in, broke through its October 10th support level, paving the way for further declines. It's fallen approximately 97% from its January 11th, 2024 peak, meaning if you invested $10,000 you'd only have $300 left now, if my calculations are correct. The project owners' greed, and even, to go further, their involvement in scams, killed this great coin. Another zero should be added.
R.I.P $ARB
$LUNC finally rose above the 3521 resistance and also formed a flag pattern. If the flag holds, it could test the next resistance point at 3935. Personally, I would like it to settle and consolidate between 3935 and 3521. If it bottoms out there, good things could happen in the coming weeks.
$LUNC finally rose above the 3521 resistance and also formed a flag pattern. If the flag holds, it could test the next resistance point at 3935. Personally, I would like it to settle and consolidate between 3935 and 3521. If it bottoms out there, good things could happen in the coming weeks.
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Baisse (björn)
In $BTC , where I've been bearish since the 94652 level, the head and shoulders pattern I pointed out and the possibility of a decline continue, no change. The 65331 level has now become important; if it breaks through, the downward movement could accelerate. The 71329 Fibonacci resistance level still holds its strength.
In $BTC , where I've been bearish since the 94652 level, the head and shoulders pattern I pointed out and the possibility of a decline continue, no change. The 65331 level has now become important; if it breaks through, the downward movement could accelerate. The 71329 Fibonacci resistance level still holds its strength.
For-Exx Kripto
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Bitcoin eased slightly before breaking above the upper resistance line at 71329; we cannot talk about an uptrend without breaking through this level. As long as it stays between 66764 and 71329, we can consider it a sideways movement.
$BTC
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Baisse (björn)
$PEPE seems to be heading towards completing its unfinished business at the 264 level... It's currently at 421, with approximately a 37% distance to cover until the 264 level. {future}(1000PEPEUSDT)
$PEPE seems to be heading towards completing its unfinished business at the 264 level...
It's currently at 421, with approximately a 37% distance to cover until the 264 level.
For-Exx Kripto
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Baisse (björn)
Not content with taking everything it lost during the New Year's rally like other meme coins, $PEPE now seems to be targeting the 264 level.
$XRP is consolidating, it's starting to look good on the chart, every minute it stays above 1.3986 seems to increase the probability of it going to the 1.65 level, unless it falls below 1.3986...
$XRP is consolidating, it's starting to look good on the chart, every minute it stays above 1.3986 seems to increase the probability of it going to the 1.65 level, unless it falls below 1.3986...
For-Exx Kripto
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$XRP unexpectedly rose above the neutral zone of 1.56 yesterday, but couldn't hold above it. If it had stayed above this level, the outlook could have improved. Currently, it continues in a negative trend.
$FLOKI was arguably one of the coins most positively affected by the CPI data; it made an upward move in recent days but has started to fade again. Every rise is an opportunity to short at a better price, and I expect a drop to the 1603 level.
$FLOKI was arguably one of the coins most positively affected by the CPI data; it made an upward move in recent days but has started to fade again. Every rise is an opportunity to short at a better price, and I expect a drop to the 1603 level.
For-Exx Kripto
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Baisse (björn)
After $FLOKI broke the 3746 support level, unfortunately there is no longer any obstacle in front of 1603. From here, I expect a 51% drop to the 1603 level.
{future}(1000FLOKIUSDT)
Ethereum, like other major coins, has settled into a sideways trend; as long as it remains between 2150 and 1800, we can't really talk about any particular direction. $ETH
Ethereum, like other major coins, has settled into a sideways trend; as long as it remains between 2150 and 1800, we can't really talk about any particular direction. $ETH
For-Exx Kripto
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I mentioned that the target for Ethereum was 1800 when it was around 2150, and now it's fluctuating between 1800 and 2150. There are important US data releases this week, so it will likely stay within this range until then. $ETH
$XRP unexpectedly rose above the neutral zone of 1.56 yesterday, but couldn't hold above it. If it had stayed above this level, the outlook could have improved. Currently, it continues in a negative trend.
$XRP unexpectedly rose above the neutral zone of 1.56 yesterday, but couldn't hold above it. If it had stayed above this level, the outlook could have improved. Currently, it continues in a negative trend.
For-Exx Kripto
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$XRP is currently moving in a neutral zone. If it closes above 1.56, it will exit the negative trend, I'm not saying it will turn positive, it will become neutral, and it may start consolidating before the next move. As I said, it needs to close above 1.56 first.
Bitcoin eased slightly before breaking above the upper resistance line at 71329; we cannot talk about an uptrend without breaking through this level. As long as it stays between 66764 and 71329, we can consider it a sideways movement. $BTC
Bitcoin eased slightly before breaking above the upper resistance line at 71329; we cannot talk about an uptrend without breaking through this level. As long as it stays between 66764 and 71329, we can consider it a sideways movement.
$BTC
For-Exx Kripto
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Bitcoin may be targeting a move that could extend to the upper resistance line at 71329 in a low-volume market, but unless it breaks above 71329, this upward movement will be meaningless.
$BTC
$USTC has solidified its position above the 461 level on the turquoise line and tested 565 upwards. A break above 565 would remove it from negativity and could open the way for a rise to 625. First, it needs to close above 565 at the end of the day.
$USTC has solidified its position above the 461 level on the turquoise line and tested 565 upwards. A break above 565 would remove it from negativity and could open the way for a rise to 625. First, it needs to close above 565 at the end of the day.
For-Exx Kripto
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$USTC appears to be consolidating its position above the 461 level on the turquoise line, continuing sideways. If it moves upwards, it could test the 565 level.
Shiba gained strength from the lower support of the channel and reached the 700 level I predicted, a bit early to be honest. After this early move, an attack path up to 750-800 may be opened. $SHIB
Shiba gained strength from the lower support of the channel and reached the 700 level I predicted, a bit early to be honest. After this early move, an attack path up to 750-800 may be opened.
$SHIB
For-Exx Kripto
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Meme coins seem to be in a rebound phase after their declines in the last month, and one of these meme coins, shiba, appears to be aiming for an attack up to the 700 level by gaining strength from the lower support of the channel. Support level 518
$SHIB
$XRP is currently moving in a neutral zone. If it closes above 1.56, it will exit the negative trend, I'm not saying it will turn positive, it will become neutral, and it may start consolidating before the next move. As I said, it needs to close above 1.56 first.
$XRP is currently moving in a neutral zone. If it closes above 1.56, it will exit the negative trend, I'm not saying it will turn positive, it will become neutral, and it may start consolidating before the next move. As I said, it needs to close above 1.56 first.
For-Exx Kripto
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$XRP continues to move within the negative range; it now needs to break above 1.56 to move into the neutral zone... It's practically glued to the lower line of the downtrend.
$LUNC managed to reach the 3521 level after breaking the downtrend line; if it stays between 3935 and 3521, it may return to a sideways trend. Overall, the altcoin group looks more positive than the major coins after the inflation data release.
$LUNC managed to reach the 3521 level after breaking the downtrend line; if it stays between 3935 and 3521, it may return to a sideways trend. Overall, the altcoin group looks more positive than the major coins after the inflation data release.
For-Exx Kripto
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The downward trend line (turquoise) that was dangling at the top of $LUNC finally managed to break through. Normally, it should have guaranteed a break above 3521, but the outlook hasn't been very good for the last 10-15 days...
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