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Ethereum continues to trade sideways as uncertainty weighs on the broader crypto market. The altcoin king has struggled to regain decisive bullish momentum.

While the current structure suggests potential bottom formation, large holders appear to be making aggressive moves.

Ethereum Whales Selling Has Not Stopped

Ethereum whales have demonstrated erratic behavior in recent sessions. Sharp accumulation phases have been followed by equally aggressive distribution. This volatility signals uncertainty among high-capital participants.

Over the past two weeks, addresses holding between 100,000 and 1 million ETH have sold approximately 1.43 million ETH. At current valuations, that equals roughly $2.7 billion. Such large-scale distribution significantly impacts liquidity conditions.

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Ethereum Whale Holding. Source: Santiment

This level of selling often reflects late-cycle stress rather than early panic. Historically, heavy whale exits tend to occur near capitulation phases. Large holders sometimes reduce exposure before the broader acceptance of a market bottom. These episodes frequently precede structural reversals once selling pressure exhausts.

Ethereum Bottom Signals Strengthen

On-chain data provides additional context. The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL, indicator shows Ethereum in the capitulation zone. This reading indicates that average holders face substantial unrealized losses.

In prior cycles, similar NUPL conditions preceded meaningful reversals. However, Ethereum typically remains in this zone for extended periods. Capitulation does not imply immediate recovery.

Ethereum NUPL. Source: Glassnode

Sustained time in the capitulation band often reduces speculative selling. As weaker hands exit positions, remaining holders tend to exhibit stronger conviction. Gradual stabilization in NUPL readings can signal diminishing downside momentum before recovery begins.

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator also supports a potential ETH bottoming narrative. This metric tracks the relationship between short-term and long-term moving averages. Historically, convergence signals overheating near cycle tops.

Conversely, extreme divergence between these averages often aligns with cyclical bottoms. Current readings show meaningful separation between the two curves. Similar divergence patterns previously marked recovery zones.

Ethereum Pi Cycle Top Indicator. Source: Glassnode

Historical instances demonstrate that widening gaps preceded upward reversals. Although timing remains uncertain, this structural setup aligns with late-stage correction behavior. Combined with capitulation metrics, the data suggests Ethereum may be approaching stabilization rather than early bear expansion.

ETH Price Holds Above Support

Ethereum trades at $1,960 at the time of writing. The asset has consistently held above the $1,928 support level despite whale distribution. This zone remains technically significant in maintaining short-term structure.

Although overall sentiment remains cautious, underlying demand has prevented a sharper breakdown. Buyers appear willing to accumulate near perceived value levels. Sustained support may enable Ethereum to challenge the $2,027 resistance. Clearing $2,108 would confirm a breakout from consolidation.

ETH Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, downside risks cannot be ignored. If bearish momentum intensifies, Ethereum could lose $1,928 support. A breakdown may expose $1,820 as the next potential floor. Continued weakness could extend toward $1,750, invalidating the near-term bullish thesis.

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee. Bitcoin’s multi-year lifeline is on the line—not because of anything it did, but because of decisions being made in a courtroom far from Wall Street.

Crypto News of the Day: Supreme Court Ruling on Trump’s Tariffs Poised to Shake Markets and Bitcoin

Bitcoin and risk assets in general face heightened volatility on February 20, 2026, as the U.S. Supreme Court prepares to issue its long-awaited ruling on the legality of President Trump’s 2025 tariffs.

The decision, expected at 10:00 AM ET, could have sweeping implications for trade, government revenue, and global markets.

The case, consolidated as Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc., challenges whether Trump had the legal authority to impose broad tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.

While IEEPA allows the President to address “unusual and extraordinary threats” to national security or the economy, it does not explicitly authorize sweeping trade tariffs.

Lower courts have twice ruled against the administration, setting the stage for the Supreme Court’s opinion.

Prediction markets suggest a high likelihood of illegality, with Polymarket pricing roughly a 26% chance that the Supreme Court will uphold the tariffs.

Odds of the Supreme Court Ruling in Favor of Trump’s Tariffs. Source: Polymarket

The odds are almost identical on prediction market Kalshi, where bettors wager on a 25.7% chance that the court rules in favor of Trump’s tariffs. Notably, crowd bets on Kalshi are gaining more authority of late.

Odds of the Supreme Court Ruling in Favor of Trump’s Tariffs. Source: Kalshi

If upheld, tariffs would remain in place, potentially escalating trade tensions with Canada, the EU, China, and other partners. If struck down, importers could be entitled to refunds of duties collected since early 2025.

The $600 Billion Tariff Claim: Reality vs. Hype

Notably, some media and crypto commentators have cited Trump’s repeated claim that his tariffs generated $600 billion in revenue. However, neutral analyses, including the Penn-Wharton Budget Model, place the actual exposure at $133–$179 billion, a fraction of the widely referenced figure.

Notwithstanding, even at these lower levels, the financial impact could ripple through markets, with traders anticipating “pure chaos” as markets price in:

Potential refunds

Emergency replacement tariffs, and

Retaliatory actions from trade partners.

Crypto, equities, and bond markets are all expected to experience turbulence, with liquidity swings and risk-off sentiment particularly affecting Bitcoin in the short term.

BTC’s market capitalization was $1.35 trillion, with prices trading for $67,445 as of this writing.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto A Perfect Storm: Supreme Court Ruling Meets Key Economic Data

The timing of the Supreme Court ruling coincides with other key US economic data releases, including Q4 GDP, the PCE Price Index, and the Manufacturing PMI. These may amplify market volatility.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court’s decision carries broader implications for executive authority and fiscal policy.

A ruling against Trump could require the Treasury to process hundreds of billions in refunds, widening deficits and potentially prompting emergency legislation or alternative trade measures.

For crypto traders, this translates into a period of elevated uncertainty, in which macro shocks and risk sentiment can drive market swings independent of fundamentals.

Whether Bitcoin holds its multi-year lifeline or succumbs to a volatility surge will depend in large part on the legal and economic fallout of this landmark decision.

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: TradingView Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

Metaplanet CEO fires back at critics as $1.2 billion Bitcoin paper losses mount.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs post largest cycle drawdown, balances fall by 100,300 BTC.

Silver supply crisis looms as Binance hits $70 billion volume in precious metals like gold.

Ethereum struggles below $2,000, yet BitMine sees a rebound: Here’s what they’re watching.

Blue Owl halts redemptions amid private credit stress: Will crypto feel the impact?

Bitcoin hashrate shows a V-Shaped recovery — Will Bitcoin price follow?

CZ networks freely at Mar-a-Lago amid Binance’s USD1 surge.

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

CompanyClose As of February 19Pre-Market OverviewStrategy (MSTR)$129.45$130.53 (+0.83%)Coinbase (COIN)$165.94$167.03 (+0.66%)Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY)$21.63$21.54 (-0.42%)MARA Holdings (MARA)$7.96$8.00 (+0.50%)Riot Platforms (RIOT)$16.22$16.20 (-0.12%)Core Scientific (CORZ)$17.98$17.68 (-1.67%)

Crypto equities market open race: Google Finance

Hedera’s native token, HBAR, is attempting to regain lost ground after weeks of constrained trading. The price recently approached the $0.10 threshold but failed to secure a decisive breakout. Since the beginning of the month, resistance near this level has limited upward progress.

While HBAR briefly reclaimed $0.10, momentum stalled just below a key technical barrier. Traders have adjusted their positioning, though not decisively in favor of sustained upside. 

HBAR Holders Are Buying

The Money Flow Index, or MFI, indicates that buying pressure is gradually building on HBAR. This volume-weighted momentum indicator measures capital inflows and outflows based on both price and trading volume. Currently, the MFI is positioned above the neutral 50 mark, signaling that buyers are regaining influence.

An MFI reading in positive territory suggests accumulation may be underway. Rising inflows often precede price appreciation, especially when supported by higher trading activity. If this trend continues, HBAR could benefit from sustained accumulation, strengthening the case for a recovery attempt above immediate resistance levels.

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HBAR MFI. Source: TradingView Hedera Traders Remain Skeptical

Broader derivatives data offer a mixed but slightly constructive outlook. HBAR’s funding rate is currently skewed toward long positions, indicating that traders are willing to pay a premium to hold bullish contracts. Positive funding rates typically reflect expectations of upward price movement.

However, volatility in the funding rate over the past two weeks highlights lingering uncertainty. Between February 6 and February 11, short contracts dominated open interest, placing downward pressure on HBAR. This dominance quickly reversed, turned positive, and then shifted negative again.

HBAR Funding Rate. Source: Coinglass

Such fluctuations reveal hesitation among leveraged traders. Although short dominance has declined recently, conviction remains fragile. Stable positive funding would strengthen the bullish thesis, but current data suggests sentiment is still reactive to short-term price swings rather than anchored in long-term confidence.

HBAR Price Aims High

HBAR is trading at $0.0992 at the time of writing. The token remains above the $0.0961 support level, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Holding this level is technically significant, as it represents a key inflection point for trend continuation.

However, resistance at $0.1035, at the 50% Fibonacci retracement, is capping upward movement and limiting breakout attempts.

A decisive move above $0.1035 would signal a short-term structural shift. Turning this resistance into support could attract fresh demand, particularly if buying pressure continues to rise. 

HBAR Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

The next target would stand at $0.1109, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This level is widely monitored by traders and often acts as a strong support zone once reclaimed.

However, if bullish indicators fail to strengthen, consolidation may persist near current levels. Continued outflows would weaken breakout attempts and reinforce resistance at $0.1035.

A breakdown below the $0.0961 support would shift the short-term structure bearish. In that scenario, HBAR could decline toward $0.0870, invalidating the immediate recovery outlook and restoring stronger control to sellers.

CME Group will run cryptocurrency futures and options on CME Globex around the clock starting May 29, 2026, after recording $3 trillion in notional volume across its crypto derivatives in 2025.

Why it matters:

Traders can react to breaking news on weekends, eliminating the price gap risk that builds when crypto markets move while CME is closed.

Institutions managing crypto exposure via CME derivatives gain continuous hedging access, reducing overnight risk accumulation.

The move signals CME’s direct response to demand from TradFi firms scaling into digital assets.

The details:

CME Group announced the 24/7 schedule on February 19, 2026, pending regulatory approval, per an official press release.

Crypto derivatives average daily volume (ADV) hit 407,200 contracts year-to-date in 2026, up 46% year-over-year.

Futures ADV reached 403,900 contracts, up 47% year-over-year, per CME Group data.

Average daily open interest stands at 335,400 contracts, up 7% year-over-year.

CME confirmed the launch date of May 29, 2026, via its official X account.

The big picture:

For years, crypto markets have operated with a clear gap. DeFi introduced open and transparent trading, while centralized exchanges continued to handle most price discovery. The difference came down to infrastructure. Most blockchains focused on running applications, not high-speed trading. Order books, tight spreads, and real-time hedging demand fast execution and low costs, and that level of performance is now becoming non-negotiable.

At these volumes, the pressure on infrastructure becomes obvious. According to DeFiLlama, decentralized perpetual futures markets are now clearing roughly $20–30 billion in daily volume, with monthly volumes regularly approaching the $1 trillion range depending on market conditions.

As this trend accelerates, MegaETH, a high-performance Ethereum Layer 2 built around ultra-low latency and high throughput, has gone live. Among the first flagship applications to launch on this Layer 2 network on February 17 was World Markets – a decentralized trading platform that unifies spot trading, perpetual futures, and lending under a single account. 

As one of the first full trading platforms on the network, it effectively serves as an early test of whether performance-focused chains can support institutional-style market structure on-chain.

When Markets Outgrow the Infrastructure

For most of DeFi’s first wave, the focus was composability. Protocols stacked on top of each other, liquidity moved across AMMs, and lending markets thrived.

However, serious trading is different from yield farming.

Order books require constant updates. Market makers need predictable fees. High-frequency traders need execution that doesn’t lag behind centralized venues by seconds. Even small inefficiencies compound when leverage is involved.

That’s where many general-purpose chains struggled.

Gas fees on networks like Base or Arbitrum can fluctuate dramatically during congestion. Latency, even if acceptable for swaps or NFT mints, becomes a real issue when managing leveraged derivatives.

Kevin Coons, founder of World Markets, speaks candidly:

“There has yet to be a successful DEX on a general purpose chain. Two simple reasons are gas and speed. Gas costs can be close to 100x higher. High gas costs prevent market makers from being able to quote tight spreads meaning on-chain exchanges can’t be competitive with Binance, until now.”

Whether or not one agrees with the 100x comparison, the broader point resonates: tight spreads and fast execution aren’t optional features in capital markets. They’re the foundation.

Coons adds:

“Speed matters to an extent. Being within range of Binance is important for getting price discovery on-chain. MegaETH is the first chain where price discovery is possible.”

That statement speaks to a larger trend. If decentralized markets want to compete, they can’t just be transparent but efficient as well.

MegaETH and the Rise of Performance Chains

MegaETH has positioned itself differently from earlier Ethereum scaling efforts.

Instead of focusing only on cheaper gas, it emphasizes performance metrics closer to centralized systems, targeting very high throughput and low confirmation times. The project has publicly referenced stress tests processing billions of transactions ahead of mainnet launch.

Official docs and ecosystem materials emphasize execution speed specifically for latency-sensitive use cases like order books and gaming.

This approach aligns with a pattern seen elsewhere. Hyperliquid, another trading-focused environment, has become one of the most active perpetual futures venues onchain, frequently clearing billions in daily volume.

The takeaway is that markets seem to gravitate toward infrastructure built specifically for trading workloads. General-purpose chains aren’t disappearing but capital markets are starting to migrate toward environments designed for financial throughput.

What World Markets Is Trying to Change

World Markets enters this environment with a structural design choice: unified margin.

Instead of forcing traders to separate capital across spot markets, perpetual futures, and lending platforms, the system keeps everything under a single portfolio.

On paper, that sounds straightforward. In practice, it opens the door to strategies that were previously difficult on-chain, including basis trades that exploit the structural gap between borrow rates and perpetual funding rates.

Traditional DeFi often leaves capital fragmented and heavily overcollateralized, forcing traders to split borrowing, hedging, and execution across separate platforms, with billions in capital sitting idle or locked inefficiently because the infrastructure never unified those functions.

World Markets attempts to consolidate all of that. The platform’s ATLAS risk engine enables portfolio-level margining and undercollateralized lending – mechanics more common in prime brokerage models than in early DeFi protocols.

In traditional finance, hedge funds operate under consolidated accounts where risk is assessed at the portfolio level. DeFi historically hasn’t worked that way.

World Markets is effectively attempting to replicate prime brokerage-style capital management on-chain, giving traders access to structures that have traditionally been reserved for institutional desks.

Rethinking Liquidations and Risk

Liquidation mechanics are one of the most controversial parts of leveraged trading.

Most exchanges, both centralized or decentralized, rely on automated systems that close positions once thresholds are breached. While necessary for solvency, those systems can override trader discretion.

World Markets frames its model differently. In Coons’ view:

“Sophisticated traders have highly leveraged portfolios. They reduce risk by hedging… Exchanges currently socialize these losses to their users by closing out their positions. On World Markets you have ultimate control over your risk. We don’t decide your risk for you.”

The idea is to give traders more direct control over counterparty exposure rather than relying entirely on exchange-imposed forced liquidations.

Whether that model scales will depend on adoption and liquidity depth. But structurally, it signals a move away from rigid, siloed liquidation logic toward portfolio-based risk management.

Where On-Chain Markets Are Heading 

Zooming out, this moment is bigger than any single platform. Decentralized markets are beginning to outgrow the general-purpose infrastructure they were originally built on. DeFi’s first phase focused on access and composability. The next phase is about capital efficiency, execution quality, and market structure that can handle real trading volume.

According to Messari’s 2025 derivatives research, perpetual futures have become one of the largest segments of DeFi by volume, accounting for a significant share of total on-chain activity.

At that scale, performance stops being optional. Competing with centralized venues requires tighter spreads, faster execution, and deeper liquidity, all of which depend on infrastructure designed specifically for financial workloads.

MegaETH is aligning itself with that change, and World Markets’ launch represents one of the earliest attempts to run a fully integrated trading stack, including a central limit order book, on infrastructure designed specifically for high-speed financial execution. It signals a maturing phase for DeFi, where the chain itself becomes a strategic choice aligned with the demands of capital markets.

The probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 surged to a record 82% on Polymarket earlier today.

The increase in odds comes ahead of a looming deadline to move the key crypto legislation forward.

Polymarket Signals Growing Confidence in Clarity Act as Negotiations Accelerate 

Data from Polymarket shows that the probability of the Clarity Act becoming law rose sharply over the past 48 hours. Odds climbed from around 60% on February 18 to a peak of 82% earlier today. 

At press time, the figure had eased to 78%, still reflecting a significant jump and signaling growing market confidence in the bill’s prospects.

Odds of Clarity Act Passing in 2026. Source: Polymarket

The optimism is not limited to prediction market traders. Industry executives are also projecting strong momentum. 

In an interview with Fox Business, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said there’s a 90% chance that the long-debated Clarity Act will pass by the end of April.

“The White House is pushing hard on this, and that is a big reason why it will get done. It needs to get done for US leadership,” he said.

The rise in retail optimism comes as the White House moves to push negotiations forward. According to Fox Business, a March 1 deadline has been set to advance the legislation ahead of the midterms.

White House Hosts Third Meeting as Clarity Act Deadline Nears

The Clarity Act is focused on establishing a regulatory framework for digital assets. At its core, the bill aims to clearly define regulatory oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The legislation passed the House last July. However, the Senate’s version remains stalled. The primary point of contention between banks and crypto firms centers on stablecoin yields. Last month, Coinbase withdrew its support for the bill after the Senate’s changes. 

The administration has convened several discussions involving crypto firms and banking representatives, with a third meeting held on Thursday. 

According to journalist Eleanor Terrett, a representative from the crypto industry argued that banks’ concerns may be rooted more in competitive dynamics than in measurable concerns over deposit flight.

A source representing banks told Terret that, for their part, they are pushing further analysis of how stablecoins could affect traditional deposit bases.

“Bank trade groups will brief their members on today’s discussions and gauge whether there’s room to compromise on allowing crypto firms to offer stablecoin rewards. One source said an end-of-month deadline doesn’t seem unrealistic, with talks set to continue in the coming days,” Terrett said.

As discussions move forward, March 1 stands out as a critical date in the legislative timeline. Despite ongoing disagreements, market analysts still view the bill as broadly positive for the industry.

If passed, it would mark a significant step toward reducing regulatory uncertainty and establishing clearer rules for the crypto sector overall.

While silver inventories on COMEX continue to decline, Binance’s newly launched gold and silver perpetual futures have already surpassed $70 billion in trading volume within weeks.

The sharp convergence across metals and crypto derivatives markets signals surging demand for 24/7 synthetic exposure to precious metals.

Physical Silver Tightens as 24/7 Derivatives Demand Accelerates Across Crypto and Metals Markets

Binance recorded over $70 billion in trading volume across its XAU/USDT and XAG/USDT perpetual contracts.

It points to a strong appetite for always-on, on-chain access to gold and silver price movements. The milestone highlights how traders are increasingly turning to crypto-native platforms to gain exposure to metals without traditional market-hour constraints.

At the same time, physical silver dynamics are tightening. Silver backing futures keep falling, with the March-to-May contract roll reaching 30 million ounces per day. This pace could clear the current open interest.

“At that pace, COMEX is out of silver by February 27,” wrote investment specialist Karel Mercx, adding that from April onward, the market risks a physical shortage unless meaningful inflows arrive in the coming weeks.

The structure of the futures curve adds to the urgency. When adjusting for financing costs such as SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) and storage, the March–May spread is approaching backwardation. This condition effectively signals immediate demand for physical metal over future delivery.

In carry-adjusted terms, backwardation signals that physical silver is more valuable now than later.

Volatility Surges as 24/7 Trading Reshapes Risk Across Metals and Crypto

Rising futures prices can intensify this dynamic, as higher forward pricing encourages speculative buying.  It also prompts producers and holders to retain physical supply in anticipation of further appreciation, pulling additional metal out of the market.

Meanwhile, gold volatility has surged, with its 30-day volatility at its highest level since 2008. The surge reflects heightened macro uncertainty and rapid shifts in positioning across derivatives markets.

Gold’s 30-day volatility is at the highest level since 2008. Source: Investment researcher Hedgeye on X

The structural shift toward round-the-clock trading is not limited to crypto exchanges. CME Group announced that beginning May 29, crypto futures and options will trade 24 hours a day, seven days a week on CME Globex, pending regulatory review.

CME reported a record $3 trillion in notional volume across crypto futures and options in 2025, citing record-high demand for digital asset risk management.

Year-to-date 2026 data show average daily volume up 46% year-over-year and futures ADV up 47%, reinforcing sustained institutional participation.

The development may also reduce the risk of weekend price gaps. This would allow markets to respond instantly to geopolitical or macro shocks. Notably, the feature is already native to crypto exchanges like Binance.

Taken together, the surge in derivatives activity, accelerating silver inventory drawdowns, elevated gold volatility, and the normalization of 24/7 trading suggest markets are entering a structurally different phase.

As physical supply tightens and financial access expands, traders are positioning for potential scarcity in both metals vaults and digital order books.

Private capital firm Blue Owl Capital, with over $307 billion in assets under management, has permanently halted investor redemptions at a retail-focused private debt fund.

The suspension has triggered concerns among economists. Furthermore, it has raised a key question about whether the private credit market could impact the broader crypto market.

Everything to Know About Blue Owl’s Redemption Changes

According to Bloomberg, the private credit firm has seen a rise in withdrawal requests in recent months. This was partly driven by investor concerns over its exposure to software companies amid the artificial intelligence surge.

FT noted that Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II) has been closed to redemptions since November. The firm had previously indicated it might reopen withdrawals later this quarter, but it has now abandoned that plan. 

Earlier this week, the company revealed that quarterly redemptions would no longer be available to OBDC II investors. Instead, the firm plans to distribute cash through periodic payments tied to asset sales.

“We’re not halting redemptions, we are simply changing the method by which we’re providing redemptions,” Blue Owl co-President Craig Packer told analysts on a conference call Thursday, as per Reuters.

According to Packer, payouts to fund holders are expected to be roughly 30% of the fund’s value, up from the prior 5% cap.

“We are returning six times as much capital and returning it to all shareholders over the next 45 days. In the coming quarters we will continue to pursue this plan to return capital to OBDC II investors,” Blue Owl commented on its latest plan.

Blue Owl also moved to sell approximately $1.4 billion in assets from three of its credit funds. Bloomberg revealed that Chicago-based insurer Kuvare, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System, and British Columbia Investment Management Corp. purchased the debt, according to people familiar with the matter. Blue Owl added that the loans were sold at 99.7% of par value.

Private Credit Market Faces Growing Strain 

Market analyst Crypto Rover suggested that Blue Owl’s redemption freeze reflects mounting pressures across the $3 trillion private credit sector. He outlined several warning signs. 

First, about 40% of direct lending firms now report negative free operating cash flow. Default rates among middle-market borrowers have climbed to 4.55% and continue to rise. 

Notably, 30% of firms with debt due before 2027 show negative EBITDA, making refinancing challenging. Meanwhile, credit downgrades have outpaced upgrades for seven straight quarters.

“If the stress continues in the private credit market, it’ll first impact the small businesses for whom the private credit market is a critical funding source. Additionally, it’ll cause refinancing costs to go up and will result in more defaults, which will create a vicious cycle. The only way to stop this is by lowering interest rates and providing liquidity,” the analyst added.

Economist Mohamed A. El-Erian questioned whether the situation could represent an early warning signal similar to those seen in 2007 before the 2008 global financial crisis.

Implications for Crypto Markets

Stress in the private credit market does not automatically translate into direct contagion for crypto, but indirect linkages deserve attention. A recent analysis from BeInCrypto indicates Bitcoin has closely tracked US software equities.

A meaningful share of private credit is allocated to software companies, linking these markets through shared growth-risk exposure. If lending conditions tighten or refinancing risks rise, valuations in the software sector could come under pressure. 

Rising defaults, widening credit spreads, and constrained capital access would likely weigh on growth stocks. Given Bitcoin’s correlation with high-growth equities during tightening cycles, sustained weakness in software could spill over into crypto markets. 

That said, this remains a second-order macro effect rather than direct structural exposure. The critical variable is the broader financial response. If stress leads to tighter financial conditions, Bitcoin could face downside alongside tech. 

If it triggers monetary easing or renewed liquidity support, crypto may ultimately benefit. For now, the risk is cyclical and liquidity-driven, not systemic to digital assets themselves.

Ethereum (ETH) is holding below $2,000, leaving many investors underwater as the downtrend extends into February 2026.

Despite the sustained weakness, BitMine has maintained a bullish stance on Ethereum. This raises a key question: Is their confidence driven by narrative or sentiment, or is there another factor behind their conviction?

Ethereum’s Pain Reaches 9th Decile: What Does That Mean For The Price?

In a detailed post on X (formerly Twitter), BitMine highlighted the research by Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, focusing on Ethereum’s realized price. This is an on-chain valuation metric that reflects the average acquisition cost of all coins currently in circulation.

According to the data, Ethereum’s realized price stands at $2,241. At the time of the analysis, the asset was trading near $1,934. 

This leaves the average holder in the red. According to Fundstrat’s model, the “loss for realized price was 22%.”

Ethereum’s Realized Price Analysis Showing the Gap Between On-Chain Cost Basis and Market Price. Source: X/BitMine

The analysis compared the current drawdown to prior cycle lows. During the 2022 bear market, Ethereum traded as much as 39% below its realized price. In 2025, the discount reached approximately 21%. 

“If we apply this ‘loss’ to the current realized ETH price of $2,241, we get implied ‘lows’ for ETH. Using 2022, this implies $1,367. Using 2025, this implies $1,770,” the analysis noted.

Using a decile analysis, the post revealed that the current drawdown falls into the 9th decile (extremely high). For context, a decile analysis is a quantitative method used in statistics, finance, and marketing to segment a dataset into 10 equal-sized groups (deciles) based on the distribution of a specific variable.

The data suggests that the median 12-month forward return in this decile was approximately 81%, with a 12-month win ratio of 87%. In other words, in most historical instances when ETH reached similar drawdown levels, it was trading higher one year later.

“Is this the bottom? Seems like we are closing in on that low. Looking beyond the near-term, the risk/reward for ETH is positive,” the post read.

ETH Returns by Decile. Source: X/BitMine

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee previously emphasized that sharp drawdowns are a recurring feature of Ethereum’s price history. Since 2018, ETH has experienced eight separate declines of 50% or more from local highs, suggesting that corrections of this magnitude have occurred roughly once per year.

In 2025, Ethereum fell 64% between January and March. Despite that steep drop, the asset later rebounded significantly.

“ETH sees V-shaped recoveries from major lows. This happened in each of the 8 prior declines of 50% or more. A similar recovery is expected in 2026. The best investment opportunities in crypto have presented themselves after declines. Think back to 2025, the single best entry points in crypto occurred after markets fell sharply due to tariff concerns,” Lee said.

Ethereum Recovery Could Be Critical for BitMine’s $7 Billion Underwater Position

If Ethereum delivers a sustained recovery with strong upside returns, it could represent a meaningful inflection point for investors, particularly BitMine. The company’s unrealized losses have expanded to approximately $7 billion, according to CryptoQuant data.

BitMine Unrealized Losses on Ethereum Holdings. Source: CryptoQuant

At the same time, BitMine appears to be reinforcing its bullish stance through continued accumulation. Lookonchain reported that the firm purchased 10,000 ETH from Kraken today.

This transaction followed a much larger single-day acquisition of 35,000 ETH. BitMine acquired 20,000 ETH from BitGo and 15,000 ETH from FalconX.

Taken together, the purchases suggest that despite mounting unrealized losses, BitMine is positioning for a potential upside scenario rather than reducing exposure.

MYX Finance delivered one of the most aggressive intraday rallies in the crypto market this week. After nearly two weeks of persistent decline, the altcoin surged 90% in less than 12 hours. The sharp reversal caught short sellers off guard and reignited speculative interest.

The rally followed news of MYX Finance’s strategic funding round led by Consensys, with participation from Consensys Mesh and Systemic Ventures. The announcement came ahead of the MYX V2 launch. Investors interpreted the backing as a validation of long-term viability, triggering immediate demand.

MYX Finance’s Recovery Was Foretold

BeInCrypto’s analysis highlighted how a rebound was already likely. The Money Flow Index, which measures buying and selling pressure using price and volume, fell below the 20.0 threshold. This marked the first time MYX entered extreme oversold territory since launch.

Oversold readings often indicate selling exhaustion. When MFI drops under 20.0, downside momentum typically weakens. The data suggested that panic-driven distribution had reached saturation. As selling pressure faded, fresh accumulation began, creating the conditions for a sharp recovery.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

MYX MFI. Source: TradingView

Derivatives positioning reinforces the bullish shift. The liquidation map shows MYX contracts currently skewed toward long exposure. Approximately $2.46 million in long positions are active, reflecting growing optimism among traders.

Funding rates have also turned positive. Positive funding indicates that long traders are paying to maintain positions. This dynamic signals confidence in continued upside. However, elevated leverage can increase volatility if momentum stalls.

MYX Liquidation Map. Source: Coinglass MYX Price Needs To Breach a Few Barriers

MYX price surged 90% on Friday, pushing the 24-hour gain to 70.6%. At the time of writing, the token trades at $1.74. The move partially offsets the 87% correction recorded over the previous 12 days.

The next resistance stands at $1.82. A decisive break above this level could open the path toward $2.28. Sustained volume and capital inflows will be necessary to validate the breakout. Without confirmation, upside may remain fragile.

MYX Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If the rally was fueled primarily by speculation surrounding the funding round, selling pressure could return quickly. A failure to sustain gains may send MYX back toward $1.01. Such a decline would invalidate the bullish thesis and erase much of the recent recovery.

Bitcoin’s hashrate — a key metric that measures the network’s total computational power — recorded a sharp V-shaped recovery in February.

This sudden turnaround has raised hopes that Bitcoin may end its five-month losing streak and make a strong recovery.

Hashrate–Price Correlation Points to a Potential Upside Scenario

A previous report by BeInCrypto noted that Bitcoin’s hashrate suffered a major shock in early 2026. An extreme Arctic cold wave swept across the United States.

Freezing temperatures, heavy snowfall, and surging heating demand strained the national power grid. Authorities issued energy-saving requests, and several regions experienced localized blackouts.

As a result, the network’s hashrate dropped by roughly 30%. Around 1.3 million mining machines went offline, slowing block production.

By February, however, data showed a swift turnaround. Hashrate rebounded from below 850 EH/s to over 1 ZH/s, recovering nearly all of the previous large downward adjustment.

Bitcoin Hashrate. Source: CryptoQuant.

“Bitcoin mining just got ~15% harder, with the largest ever increase in absolute difficulty, completely erasing last epoch’s huge downwards adjustment,” commented Mononaut, a developer at Mempool.

Despite the recovery in hashrate, Bitcoin’s price continues to fluctuate below $70,000 and has not mirrored the same strength. According to the market analytics platform Hedgeye, the cost to mine one Bitcoin in February is approximately $84,000. This suggests that many miners are still operating at a loss.

The rise in hashrate reflects the return of computational capacity. Miners have powered machines back on and appear more optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term profitability.

Historical data shows that V-shaped recoveries in hashrate often coincide with strong price rebounds.

Bitcoin Hashrate vs. Price. Source: Blockchain.com

A notable example occurred in mid-2021. After China imposed a sweeping ban on Bitcoin mining, hashrate plunged by more than 50%, falling from 166 EH/s to 95 EH/s in July. Months later, a V-shaped recovery in hashrate paralleled a powerful price rebound. Bitcoin surged from around $30,000 to above $60,000 by the end of the year.

“Bitcoin network hashrate has sharply recovered after the recent dip, a strong signal that miner confidence remains intact and they are coming back online. Historically, hashrate is a leading indicator during recoveries. Price tends to follow hashrate,” said Satoxis, a Bitcoin OG.

Data from CryptoQuant on Bitcoin Miner Outflow further supports the view that miners expect a price recovery. The 7-day average outflow from miner wallets has fallen to its lowest level since May 2023.

Bitcoin Miner Outflow. Source: CryptoQuant

This trend indicates that miners are no longer aggressively selling their holdings. Instead, they appear to be holding in anticipation of a potential rebound.

Additional analysis from BeInCrypto emphasizes that any sustained recovery at this stage requires confirmation through a breakout above $71,693.

Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the recently pardoned founder of Binance, returned to the US this week, for the first time since leaving federal prison in 2024. He attended the crypto summit hosted by the Trump family–backed World Liberty Financial (WLFI) at Mar-a-Lago.

The appearance marked a dramatic turnaround for CZ, who pleaded guilty in 2023 to anti-money laundering violations and served a four-month sentence before being granted a full presidential pardon in October 2025.

CZ Returns to US After Presidential Pardon

Reports describe the gathering as both low-key and symbolically loaded. During the event, CZ:

Mingled with Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr.,

Attended panels, including one with newly appointed CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, and

Shared space with prominent figures such as Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, NYSE President Lynn Martin, Coinbase founder Brian Armstrong, Senator Bernie Moreno, Kevin O’Leary, and even Nicki Minaj.

“Learned a lot,” CZ shared, emphasizing policy insights rather than political optics.

The optics of CZ’s return are striking. From federal prison and a $50 million personal fine to casually networking at the president’s club, the event signals that the legal chapter is closed.

Trump’s pardoning of CZ effectively removed long-term barriers to US travel and business activity. It allows him to rebuild influence within elite financial and regulatory circles.

Networks at Mar-a-Lago as Binance Controls 87% of Trump-Linked USD1 Stablecoin

The timing also coincides with Binance’s growing role in WLFI’s USD1 stablecoin. The exchange reportedly controls roughly 85–87% of the $5.4 billion circulating supply, strengthening a Trump-backed venture that critics have questioned for potential conflicts of interest.

While some lawmakers and commentators have raised concerns about a perceived quid pro quo between the pardon and Binance’s dominance in the stablecoin, CZ has repeatedly called such reports “not news.”

Nevertheless, Binance is reinforcing its dominance in the USD1 ecosystem with a fresh incentive push. From February 20 to March 20, the exchange will distribute 235 million WLFI tokens to USD1 holders, rewarding early adopters for providing liquidity.

Mar-a-Lago Summit Highlights Crypto-Political Convergence and USD1 Ambitions

The Mar-a-Lago summit highlighted the convergence of crypto, finance, and political influence. World Liberty’s leadership outlined ambitious plans for USD1, framing it as a “new digital Bretton Woods system” to integrate real estate, banking, and decentralized finance.

“…the work is just beginning… We are building the future, and we are doing it together,” WLFI wrote.

Attendees were urged to explore its use, while WLFI also announced upcoming tokenized investment products tied to Trump resorts.

Despite Binance remaining barred from US operations due to the 2023 settlement, CZ’s presence at a high-profile US event highlights a shift.

Engagements with policy leaders like CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam and lobbying veterans such as Brian Armstrong suggest that figures like CZ are regaining a foothold in discussions shaping the future of digital assets.

Whether CZ’s return to the US will translate into renewed operational influence for Binance or remain a high-level networking exercise is uncertain.

What is clear, however, is the symbolism: a once-convicted crypto executive now freely attends elite US circles, at an event that blends business ambition with political connections. Meanwhile, his firm exerts unprecedented influence over a politically linked stablecoin.

PUNCH, a Solana-based meme coin, has surged more than 80,000% since its launch earlier this month, capturing traders’ attention across the ecosystem.

As its market cap expands and accumulation intensifies, concerns are also mounting. Amid the token’s explosive rally, analysts are highlighting red flags surrounding this new market entrant.

What Is PUNCH Token?

PUNCH is a token inspired by the story of a baby Japanese macaque named Punch and his inseparable plush companion. The token positions itself as a community-driven cryptocurrency built around emotion, comfort, and companionship.

According to details provided on the website, the token has a fixed total supply of 1 billion. The project states that its liquidity has been locked and burned. 

It also claims that ownership has been renounced. In addition, the token operates with a 0% tax.

“PUNCH is gearing up to be the MOODENG of 2026,” an analyst wrote.

Solana Meme Coin PUNCH Skyrockets to $30 Million Market Cap 

Data from GeckoTerminal showed that the token began trading earlier this month. Momentum accelerated as the story of the baby macaque gained traction across media outlets and social platforms. Over the past week alone, the meme coin has surged 22,290.8%.

PUNCH Token Price Performance. Source: GeckoTerminal

During early Asian trading hours today, PUNCH hit an all-time high, with its market cap climbing above $30 million. On CoinGecko, the token emerged as the top daily gainer, posting a 260% increase. It also ranks third among the platform’s top trending cryptocurrencies.

The rally has attracted substantial investor interest. Blockchain tracker Stalkchain highlighted one wallet that accumulated approximately $226,000 worth of PUNCH.

Data from Nansen also revealed that over the past seven days, public figure holdings in PUNCH surged 89.69%. However, smart money and whale holdings have declined.

PUNCH Token Public Figure Accumulation. Source: Nansen Crypto Watchers Raise Red Flags Over PUNCH 

Several market watchers have raised concerns about the token. Crypto analyst StarPlatinum has alleged that the token shows “multiple signs of coordinated insider control.”

In a post on X, the analyst claimed that the creator wallet, identified as A8Z1ejQGk45EJibBPJviWnM3UvwKSuYun53nSCkWKM52, distributed approximately 100 billion PUNCH tokens, equivalent to 10% of the total supply, soon after the token went live. 

According to the analysis, the wallet (A8Z1e) sent 48.2 billion tokens directly to another wallet, CgR8tggfcM8Re5agDY5fsT4pKmqQTzF8vQ7jQknM6iBj. This entity allegedly acted as an intermediary between the creator and several large holders.

Blockchain traces shared in the thread suggest a flow pattern from the creator wallet to the intermediary address, then to large wallets. Among the top linked holders identified:

Wallet Hbx5PturLVp9F7YYG18jZZSWFTNp9TTSXEJepq6pvSi3 reportedly holds 35 billion PUNCH, or 3.5% of the total supply, and was funded from the intermediary wallet.

Wallet H8GLvJ89DwoeBTY3YhepLTf3VmKR44qVnskNdEZHQVDPK holds 25.1 billion tokens, representing 2.5% of supply, and was allegedly funded by the largest holder.

Wallet DXU65912VjiPUhKR37TLiHCrbp4uNHVNNZiBdLv1uAx1 controls 17.5 billion tokens, or 1.75% of supply, and is said to be connected within the same funding cluster.

Combined, these three wallets account for approximately 7.75% of the total supply, with all allocations allegedly traceable back to the initial creator distribution, according to the claims.

“This is how controlled memecoins are structured. Stay careful,” StarPlatinum wrote.

Here, it’s worth noting that the website specifies that PUNCH’s total supply stands at 1 billion. Meanwhile, the White Whale also identified two “red flags” related to the PUNCH token. 

“1. Bubble maps is too perfect. Too clean. Real life is messy. 2. Liquidity does NOT look like this. In fact it simply cannot look like this due to how distribution takes place on the idiotic constant product pools,” he noted. “Almost 6x “support” in equal distance below than  resistance above? It’s fake, guys. No coin gets that much support organically with liquidity just sitting around on the books in case of a dip. It’s all done through Meteora.”

However, the White Whale clarified that he is not directly accusing the project team or developers of orchestrating the activity. He stated that the project itself “may or may not be good.”

“I didn’t warn people when I saw the warning signs on Penguin because I didn’t want to be accused of having a conflict of interest. Those same warning signs are now presenting themselves on Punch. Trade carefully. We never know when the cabal is going to pull the rug,” he wrote in another post.

Thus, while PUNCH’s rally has attracted significant interest, analysts’ concerns raise questions about the sustainability of its momentum. As with many sharply appreciating meme coins, heightened volatility and structural risks remain key factors for traders to monitor.

Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich fired back at critics, accusing the Japanese Bitcoin-holding firm of misusing shareholder funds and hiding key disclosures.

Why it matters:

Metaplanet holds over $1.2 billion in unrealized Bitcoin losses, making transparency around fund use a direct concern for shareholders.

Allegations of undisclosed borrowing against BTC holdings raise governance red flags for public-company crypto investors.

The details:

Critics alleged Metaplanet bought BTC at a market top, stayed silent during the drawdown, and borrowed against those holdings without disclosing interest rates or counterparties.

Gerovich confirmed Bitcoin wallet addresses are publicly listed, with a live shareholder dashboard tracking holdings in real time.

Gerovich called September’s purchase price a “local top” but defended a long-term, non-market-timed strategy.

The company reported 6.2 billion yen in operating profit — up 1,694% year-over-year.

Gerovich attributed reported accounting losses solely to unrealized mark-to-market BTC fluctuations on unsold holdings.

Meanwhile, CoinGecko currently tracks Metaplanet’s unrealized BTC losses at over $1.2 billion.

The big picture:

Metaplanet follows the MicroStrategy playbook — using equity and debt to accumulate Bitcoin as a primary treasury asset.

Corporate BTC holders now face growing pressure to meet traditional disclosure standards as unrealized losses mount across the sector.

The allegations expose a structural tension: Bitcoin’s on-chain transparency does not automatically satisfy securities law disclosure requirements.

Veteran market strategist Tom Lee signaled that the US stock market may be approaching a pivotal turning point.

He highlighted three sectors, including crypto, as potential leaders in the next market rally.

Market Rotation and Crypto Set the Stage for Next Rally, Tom Lee Says

Speaking on CNBC’s Closing Bell, Lee outlined a cautiously optimistic scenario in which the S&P 500 could climb toward 7,300 as risk-off positioning eases and earnings remain strong.

“Stocks have taken some hits,” Lee said, pointing to a recent software downturn and a rotation out of the MAG 7 mega-cap tech stocks into AI-focused “bullet makers,” alongside broader risk-off moves into gold.

Despite this volatility, he emphasized that underlying fundamentals remain solid, supported by broad double-digit earnings growth across the market.

Lee identified three trades that could define the next rally:

Rotation back into the MAG 7

Potential bottom in the software sector (IGV), and

Crypto assets.

According to Lee, institutional data show software ownership at multi-decade lows, while MAG 7 stocks are cheaper relative to AI leaders than at any point in the past decade.

“Crypto drawdowns have already reached about 80% of previous crypto winter levels, setting up high-probability trade opportunities,” he said.

The software sector, particularly semiconductors, remains a key variable. Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report will likely set the tone for AI infrastructure trades and could either reinforce or dampen market optimism.

Lee suggested that software might be near a bottom, but cautioned that results from major players like Nvidia will be critical to sustaining any rally.

Consumer Strength and Defensive Sectors Could Cushion Market Pivot

Consumer discretionary stocks also show signs of resilience, providing support amid tech weakness. Jonathan Krinsky of BTIG highlighted strength in restaurants, airlines, and homebuilders, noting multiple technical breakouts underway.

With consumer confidence at contrarian lows, discretionary stocks may benefit from a broadening recovery, particularly as interest rates continue to ease.

Mortgage rates have fallen from nearly 8% to 6.17%, and the 10-year Treasury yield remains favorable, fueling demand across housing and services sectors.

Lee also explained why defensive sectors, including staples and healthcare, have outperformed recently.

“This is largely mean-reversion after three years of market gains,” he said. “Portfolios are de-risking temporarily, but the underlying bull market remains intact.”

The strategist articulated that the current market environment requires careful attention to positioning, earnings, and sector rotations.

While tech and AI narratives dominate headlines, he believes broader market breadth and overlooked sectors could lead the next leg higher.

Crypto, having experienced deep drawdowns, may even preempt broader market rallies, offering traders early opportunities.

As investors await Nvidia’s report and monitor software stabilization, Lee’s view suggests the market may be poised to pivot.

If the MAG 7 resumes its uptrend, software stabilizes, and discretionary strength continues, the S&P 500 could see a measured climb toward 7,300. This could set the stage for a broader rally across equity and digital asset markets.

According to data from Glassnode, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded their largest balance drawdown of the current market cycle following the early October all-time high.

Nonetheless, despite the recent outflows, the broader ETF picture still remains constructive.

Bitcoin ETFs See Deepest Cycle Pullback as Balances Fall to 1.26 Million BTC 

Glassnode data shows that since October, US spot Bitcoin ETF balances have declined by roughly 100,300 BTC. At press time, total holdings stood at approximately 1.26 million BTC.

The contraction reflects sustained net outflows, as investors have withdrawn capital from spot ETFs, leading funds to reduce holdings. According to SoSoValue, $1.6 billion was pulled from these products in January alone, extending a streak of monthly outflows that began in November 2025.

US Spot ETF Balances Show Largest Drawdown of Cycle. Source: Glassnode

The decline in ETF balances has unfolded alongside a broader market downturn. Bitcoin has trended lower since reaching its record high of $126,000 in October. The weakness has spilled into 2026, fueling elevated fear and uncertainty across the market.

Although spot ETFs were widely seen as a structural catalyst during Bitcoin’s rally, experts suggest the same mechanism may have intensified downside pressure during periods of redemptions. In early February, Arthur Hayes argued that institutional dealer hedging activity is amplifying downward pressure on BTC prices.

“Institutional de-risking has added structural weight to the ongoing weakness, reinforcing the broader risk-off environment,” Glassnode added.

The strain extends beyond ETF outflows and into mounting unrealized losses. According to Glassnode, the average entry price for US spot Bitcoin ETF investors stands at approximately $83,980 per BTC. 

With Bitcoin trading at $67,349 at the time of writing, this cohort is currently sitting on paper losses of roughly 20%.

Bitcoin Average Cost Basis of US Spot ETF Deposits. Source: Glassnode

Meanwhile, the outflows are not isolated to Bitcoin. BeInCrypto reported $173 million exited digital asset funds last week. This marked the fourth consecutive week of redemptions, totaling $3.7 billion for the period.

Bitcoin ETF Net Inflows Still at $53 Billion Despite Recent Outflows 

Despite the pessimism, some analysts continue to emphasize the longer-term picture. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs still stand at roughly $53 billion, down from a peak of over $63 billion in October 2025, even after recent outflows.

“Our (more bullish than most of our peers) prediction was $5-15b in first year. This is imp context to consider when looking/writing about the $8b in outflows since 45% decline and/or the relationship bt btc and Wall street, which has been overwhelmingly positive,” he added.

Bitcoin ETF Cumulative Net Flows Peaked at $63 Billion Before Falling to $53 Billion. Source: X/Eric Balchunas

Taken together, the data suggest the current retracement reflects cyclical risk reduction rather than a structural reversal. ETF flows have amplified both upside and downside moves, embedding Bitcoin more deeply into traditional capital markets dynamics.

While short-term pressure may persist amid broader macro uncertainty, the scale and speed of institutional adoption since launch indicate that Bitcoin’s integration into Wall Street portfolios remains intact.

Nearly $2.5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today, setting up a potentially volatile end to the month as traders juggle upside bets with deep downside insurance.

On the surface, positioning appears constructive. But beneath the call-heavy skew lies a striking anomaly: one of the largest open interest clusters in Bitcoin sits far below spot — at the $40,000 strike.

Calls Dominate, But Max Pain Sits Higher

Bitcoin is currently trading around $67,271, with max pain positioned at $70,000. Open interest shows 19,412 call contracts and 11,044 put contracts. This gives a put-to-call ratio of 0.57 and reflects an overall upside bias. The total notional volume tied to the expiry is roughly $2.05 billion.

Bitcoin Expiring Options. Source: Deribit  

Ethereum mirrors that constructive tilt, though in a more balanced fashion. ETH trades near $1,948, with max pain at $2,025.

Calls (124,109 contracts) outnumber puts (90,017), resulting in a put-to-call ratio of 0.73 and a notional value of approximately $417 million.

Ethereum Expiring Options. Source: Deribit  

“…positioning skews call heavy across both assets, with BTC showing the stronger upside skew. Max pain levels sit below dominant call open interest in BTC, while ETH positioning is more balanced but still constructive,” analysts at Deribit noted.

Max pain refers to the price at which the greatest number of options expire worthless, minimizing payouts to buyers.

With both BTC and ETH trading below their respective max pain levels, price gravitation toward those strikes into expiry could reduce losses for option sellers.

The $40,000 Put: A Tail-Risk Signal

Despite the headline bullish skew, a massive concentration of puts at the $40,000 strike has caught market attention.

The $40,000 Bitcoin put is now the second-largest strike by open interest, representing roughly $490 million in notional value. This comes after Bitcoin’s sharp retracement from prior highs, which reshaped hedging demand across the board.

“While aggregate positioning into expiry skews call heavy, one strike stands out: The $40K BTC put remains among the largest open interest strikes ahead of February expiry. Deep OTM downside protection demand remains visible on the board, even as headline put/call ratios lean constructive,” Deribit analysts indicated, highlighting the unusual size of the position.

In short, traders may be positioned for upside, but they are unwilling to rule out another volatility shock.

Hedging, Premium, and Structural Implications

The dynamic suggests a broader change in Bitcoin’s derivatives market. Options are increasingly used for directional bets, yield strategies, and volatility management.

Analyst Jeff Liang argued that extracting premium from the options market could reduce structural selling pressure.

“If we can stably extract the premium from the options market and empower Bitcoin HODLers, it means: HODLers no longer need to sell their Bitcoin to improve their lives… Selling pressure on Bitcoin will reduce… This will further drive Bitcoin’s price upward,” he stated.

The analyst described options premium as a “localized pump” driven by fear and greed, one that redistributes value to long-term holders without contradicting Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap.

Overall, calls outweigh puts across both BTC and ETH, signaling that traders retain exposure to a rebound. Yet the sheer scale of deep out-of-the-money hedges reveals a market that remains cautious.

With billions in notional value set to expire, the key question is whether prices drift toward max pain—or whether hidden crash-protection demand proves prescient, reigniting volatility just as traders expect calm.

Japan’s government submitted three major fiscal bills to parliament on February 20, formalizing a structure of simultaneous tax cuts, record spending, and debt-financed deficits under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

The package carries both short-term risks and longer-term implications for Bitcoin and crypto markets.

The Fiscal Picture

The 2026 budget totals ¥122.3 trillion ($793 billion) in spending — a record for the second straight year — against ¥83.7 trillion in projected tax revenue. The gap will be filled by issuing ¥29.6 trillion in new government bonds.

The government also submitted a tax reform bill. It raises the income tax threshold from ¥1.6 million to ¥1.78 million. The bill also extends mortgage tax breaks and eliminates a vehicle acquisition tax. These measures are projected to reduce national and local tax revenue by approximately ¥700 billion annually.

The third bill extends Japan’s special deficit bond law for five years from 2026. Japan’s fiscal law technically prohibits the issuance of deficit bonds. Only construction bonds are allowed. But this exception has been repeatedly renewed for decades. The extension ensures the borrowing structure remains legally intact.

Together, the three bills paint a clear picture: debt-servicing costs hit ¥31.3 trillion, surpassing ¥30 trillion for the first time, while tax cuts further reduce revenue. Japan’s national debt already stands at roughly 250% of GDP, the highest among developed nations.

Short-Term Risk: BOJ Rate Hike and Carry Trade Unwind

For crypto traders, the immediate concern is clear. This fiscal expansion increases pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise rates.

Former BOJ board member Seiji Adachi said on February 16 that the central bank will likely have enough data to justify a rate hike in April. Mizuho’s global markets co-head went further. He told Reuters the BOJ could hike up to three times in 2026, potentially starting in March. Markets currently price an approximately 80% probability of a hike by April.

The pattern linking BOJ hikes to Bitcoin selloffs is well-documented. BTC dropped roughly 23% after the March 2024 hike. It fell 26% after July 2024 and 31% after January 2025. The mechanism runs through the yen carry trade. When rates rise and the yen strengthens, leveraged positions funded in cheap yen unwind rapidly. Crypto absorbs the shock first due to its 24/7 trading and high leverage.

BTC currently trades around $67,000, down over 47% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198. US Bitcoin ETF holders sit on average 20% unrealized losses with a cost basis near $84,000, and ETFs have turned net sellers in 2026. Another BOJ hike could amplify this pressure.

However, the December 2025 hike to 0.75% had a limited impact, as markets had already priced it in, and speculative positioning is currently net long yen — suggesting a repeat of August 2024’s violent unwind is not guaranteed.

Longer-Term Signal: Sovereign Debt and the Digital Gold Narrative

Beyond the immediate rate risk, the fiscal package reinforces a structural narrative that has been building around Bitcoin. Japan — the world’s most indebted developed economy — is cutting taxes and expanding spending simultaneously, funding both entirely with bonds.

Tokyo-listed Metaplanet embodies this thesis. Holding over 35,000 BTC (roughly $3 billion) and targeting 100,000 BTC in 2026, the company borrows in weakening yen through preferred equity instruments to accumulate Bitcoin. Its strategy is effectively an arbitrage on Japan’s fiscal trajectory: borrow in a depreciating currency, buy a fixed-supply asset.

For Bitcoin, Japan’s fiscal expansion creates a paradox. In the short term, it pressures the BOJ to tighten, threatening carry-trade-driven selloffs. In the longer term, the same fiscal trajectory erodes confidence in sovereign debt sustainability, strengthening BTC’s positioning as a hedge against currency debasement.

The key variables to watch are the spring wage negotiation (Shunto) results in March, the BOJ’s April policy decision, and whether 10-year JGB yields — currently at 2.14% after retreating from January highs — resume their climb toward 3%.

Nvidia is close to finalizing a $30 billion investment in OpenAI, replacing an earlier plan for a massive $100 billion multi-year partnership. 

According to Financial Times, the deal would be part of OpenAI’s latest funding round, which could value the company at roughly $830 billion. OpenAI is expected to reinvest much of that capital into AI infrastructure, including Nvidia’s GPUs.

The shift from a $100 billion commitment to a smaller $30 billion equity investment changes the financial risk profile. 

Instead of funding massive infrastructure directly, Nvidia gains ownership exposure while still securing demand for its hardware. This restructuring has drawn close attention from investors already watching Nvidia’s volatile stock movements.

Nvidia Stock Price Over the Past Week. Source: Google Finance From Six-Week Lows to Strategic Rebound: Nvidia’s Volatile Month

Nvidia’s stock has moved sharply over the past several weeks. In early February, shares fell to around $177, marking a six-week low. 

The decline followed uncertainty over the original $100 billion OpenAI deal, concerns over US export restrictions on AI chips to China, and broader investor worries about the sustainability of AI spending.

However, the stock rebounded after Nvidia announced a smaller investment commitment, new partnerships, and major chip supply deals. 

Top 10 US AI Stocks. Source: INDmoney

A multi-year agreement to supply millions of AI chips to Meta also helped restore confidence. By mid-February, Nvidia shares recovered toward the high-$180 range.

Still, volatility persisted. Investors remained cautious about regulatory risks, high valuation levels, and whether AI infrastructure spending could deliver sustained returns.

Nvidia Commits to a Much Smaller Deal With OpenAI, But it Has a  Bigger Signal

The latest $30 billion investment is widely seen as strategically bullish for Nvidia. First, it removes the financial burden of the original $100 billion plan, which could have strained Nvidia’s balance sheet. 

Second, it strengthens Nvidia’s position as OpenAI’s primary hardware partner.

This means Nvidia benefits in two ways. It gains equity exposure to one of the world’s most valuable AI companies while continuing to sell the chips powering OpenAI’s models.

However, short-term reactions may remain mixed. Large investments always carry risk, and some investors prefer Nvidia to focus purely on chip sales. 

Still, the deal reinforces a key point: AI infrastructure spending continues to accelerate.

Ultimately, the investment strengthens Nvidia’s long-term outlook. It confirms that Nvidia remains at the center of the global AI boom, even as markets navigate short-term uncertainty.

Few cryptocurrencies are as polarizing as XRP. Critics across the crypto and DeFi ecosystem often claim XRP has no real utility. They argue it exists mainly as a speculative asset with limited real-world use. 

At the same time, XRP maintains one of the largest and most vocal communities in crypto – The XRP Army. They believe the altcoin will eventually power global financial infrastructure.

The truth sits somewhere between those two extremes. XRP does have real utility, but its usage is more specific and narrower than many assume.

XRP is More Unique Than Any Other Cryptocurrency

XRP is the native token of the XRP Ledger, launched in 2012 with a clear purpose: enabling fast and efficient cross-border payments. 

Unlike Bitcoin, which focuses on decentralized value storage, or Ethereum, which focuses on programmable smart contracts, XRP was designed primarily to move money between financial systems quickly and cheaply.

Transactions on the XRP Ledger settle in about three to five seconds and cost a fraction of a cent. This makes XRP particularly efficient as a bridge currency, allowing instant conversion between two different fiat currencies without requiring banks or payment providers to hold large reserves in foreign accounts.

Millions Hold XRP — But Most Usage Comes From Traders and Infrastructure

Retail investors make up the largest group of XRP users today. As of early 2025, the XRP Ledger had roughly 6 to 7 million funded accounts, which represent wallets holding XRP. 

After adjusting for exchange custody and users holding multiple wallets, analysts estimate around 2 to 3 million individuals globally actually hold XRP.

XRP Ledger Stats as of February 19, 2026. Source: XRP Scan

Crypto exchanges are another major user. Platforms such as Binance, Bitstamp, Kraken, and Uphold use XRP for liquidity management and transfers. 

XRP’s speed and low cost make it an efficient tool for moving funds between exchanges and managing trading liquidity.

Payment providers also represent a key real-world use case. Companies like SBI Remit in Japan and Tranglo in Southeast Asia use XRP through Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity system to facilitate international remittances. 

In these cases, XRP acts as a temporary bridge asset, allowing money to move across borders instantly without pre-funded foreign accounts.

SBI Remit and Ripple Partnership. Source: Ripple Banks Use Ripple Technology, But Only Select Partners Actually Use XRP

Banks, however, present a more nuanced picture. Major financial institutions including Santander, Standard Chartered, and Bank of America have used Ripple’s payment infrastructure. 

But most of them use Ripple’s messaging and settlement software without directly using XRP itself. Only select payment providers, rather than global banks broadly, use XRP directly for liquidity.

Beyond financial transfers, XRP also plays an essential technical role within its own network. Every XRP Ledger account must hold XRP, and all transactions require XRP to pay network fees. 

XRP supports decentralized trading, token issuance, and asset transfers on the ledger.

So, XRP is neither useless nor universally adopted. Its utility exists in specific financial infrastructure roles, particularly in liquidity provisioning and payment settlement. 

Understanding who actually uses XRP reveals a clearer picture—one grounded in real-world function rather than speculation.