NAFTA is back in focus as new research questions the hidden health cost behind free trade
đ NAFTA took effect on January 1, 1994, but a new NBER working paper released in February 2026 suggests the impact of that trade shock may have extended far beyond jobs and wages, reaching life expectancy in Americaâs industrial regions.
đ According to the study, areas with average exposure to post-NAFTA import competition from Mexico saw age-adjusted annual mortality rise by 0.68% over the following 15 years, while the highest-exposure areas saw mortality about 1.9% higher than the lowest-exposure ones.
đšâđ The strongest effects appeared among working-age men, especially in regions heavily dependent on manufacturing, where factory job losses weakened income, private insurance access, and the broader social stability of local communities.
đșđž The timing is notable because the paper arrives just as the U.S. and Mexico have launched the 2026 USMCA review process, bringing fresh attention to whether trade policy should be judged not only by growth, but also by the long-term social costs concentrated in specific regions and labor groups.