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📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & FEAR & GREED INDEX (FGI) REPORT – UPDATE 2026-02-21
The statistical data shows that the correlation coefficient between FGI and Win Rate remains low (r ~ -0.21). This result continues to confirm that FGI is not a tool for predicting price direction or entry points, but it plays an important role in position risk calibration. Specifically, trading performance tends to decline clearly when market sentiment reaches extreme euphoria, making it an early risk warning signal rather than an opportunity to expand profit targets.
Below is a summary of Winrate (WR), minimum break-even R:R, and number of observed days (n) across sentiment zones for reference:
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R:R=1:1.47 • n=25
🤤 Greed (60–80): WR 45.1% • R:R=1:1.22 • n=215
😐 Neutral (40–60): WR 45.6% • R:R=1:1.19 • n=138
😨 Fear (20–40): WR 46.8% • R:R=1:1.14 • n=175
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 49.1% • R:R=1:1.04 • n=46
The percentage of days with performance above the overall average (45.74%) by sentiment zone:
🤑 Extreme Greed: 12.0%
🤤 Greed: 40.0%
😐 Neutral: 45.7%
😨 Fear: 56.6%
😱 Extreme Fear: 65.2%
➤ Scalping traders can use FGI as a guide to adjust expected profit targets when participating in trades:
📈 When FGI is high, profit expectations should be increased to ensure the R:R remains large enough to compensate for the risk of a lower win rate.
📉 When FGI is low, profit expectations can be reduced to improve capital turnover speed and realize profits more easily.
#TradingStatistics #MarketPsychology
The statistical data shows that the correlation coefficient between FGI and Win Rate remains low (r ~ -0.21). This result continues to confirm that FGI is not a tool for predicting price direction or entry points, but it plays an important role in position risk calibration. Specifically, trading performance tends to decline clearly when market sentiment reaches extreme euphoria, making it an early risk warning signal rather than an opportunity to expand profit targets.
Below is a summary of Winrate (WR), minimum break-even R:R, and number of observed days (n) across sentiment zones for reference:
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R:R=1:1.47 • n=25
🤤 Greed (60–80): WR 45.1% • R:R=1:1.22 • n=215
😐 Neutral (40–60): WR 45.6% • R:R=1:1.19 • n=138
😨 Fear (20–40): WR 46.8% • R:R=1:1.14 • n=175
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 49.1% • R:R=1:1.04 • n=46
The percentage of days with performance above the overall average (45.74%) by sentiment zone:
🤑 Extreme Greed: 12.0%
🤤 Greed: 40.0%
😐 Neutral: 45.7%
😨 Fear: 56.6%
😱 Extreme Fear: 65.2%
➤ Scalping traders can use FGI as a guide to adjust expected profit targets when participating in trades:
📈 When FGI is high, profit expectations should be increased to ensure the R:R remains large enough to compensate for the risk of a lower win rate.
📉 When FGI is low, profit expectations can be reduced to improve capital turnover speed and realize profits more easily.
#TradingStatistics #MarketPsychology
📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & FEAR & GREED INDEX (FGI) REPORT – UPDATE 2026-02-21
The statistical data shows that the correlation coefficient between FGI and Win Rate remains low (r ~ -0.21). This result continues to confirm that FGI is not a tool for predicting price direction or entry points, but it plays an important role in position risk calibration. Specifically, trading performance tends to decline clearly when market sentiment reaches extreme euphoria, making it an early risk warning signal rather than an opportunity to expand profit targets.
Below is a summary of Winrate (WR), minimum break-even R:R, and number of observed days (n) across sentiment zones for reference:
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R:R=1:1.47 • n=25
🤤 Greed (60–80): WR 45.1% • R:R=1:1.22 • n=215
😐 Neutral (40–60): WR 45.6% • R:R=1:1.19 • n=138
😨 Fear (20–40): WR 46.8% • R:R=1:1.14 • n=175
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 49.1% • R:R=1:1.04 • n=46
The percentage of days with performance above the overall average (45.74%) by sentiment zone:
🤑 Extreme Greed: 12.0%
🤤 Greed: 40.0%
😐 Neutral: 45.7%
😨 Fear: 56.6%
😱 Extreme Fear: 65.2%
➤ Scalping traders can use FGI as a guide to adjust expected profit targets when participating in trades:
📈 When FGI is high, profit expectations should be increased to ensure the R:R remains large enough to compensate for the risk of a lower win rate.
📉 When FGI is low, profit expectations can be reduced to improve capital turnover speed and realize profits more easily.
#TradingStatistics #MarketPsychology
The statistical data shows that the correlation coefficient between FGI and Win Rate remains low (r ~ -0.21). This result continues to confirm that FGI is not a tool for predicting price direction or entry points, but it plays an important role in position risk calibration. Specifically, trading performance tends to decline clearly when market sentiment reaches extreme euphoria, making it an early risk warning signal rather than an opportunity to expand profit targets.
Below is a summary of Winrate (WR), minimum break-even R:R, and number of observed days (n) across sentiment zones for reference:
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R:R=1:1.47 • n=25
🤤 Greed (60–80): WR 45.1% • R:R=1:1.22 • n=215
😐 Neutral (40–60): WR 45.6% • R:R=1:1.19 • n=138
😨 Fear (20–40): WR 46.8% • R:R=1:1.14 • n=175
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 49.1% • R:R=1:1.04 • n=46
The percentage of days with performance above the overall average (45.74%) by sentiment zone:
🤑 Extreme Greed: 12.0%
🤤 Greed: 40.0%
😐 Neutral: 45.7%
😨 Fear: 56.6%
😱 Extreme Fear: 65.2%
➤ Scalping traders can use FGI as a guide to adjust expected profit targets when participating in trades:
📈 When FGI is high, profit expectations should be increased to ensure the R:R remains large enough to compensate for the risk of a lower win rate.
📉 When FGI is low, profit expectations can be reduced to improve capital turnover speed and realize profits more easily.
#TradingStatistics #MarketPsychology
Update 2026-02-21, community-wide trading data:
🔹The average win rate is 45.74%
🔹The day with the highest win rate was 2026-01-15 at 74.41%. The day with the lowest win rate was 2026-01-25 at 15.69%
🔹The weekday with the highest average win rate is Saturday at 45.94%. The weekday with the lowest average win rate is Monday at 45.49%
🔹The 7-day period with the highest average win rate ended on 2026-01-18 at 62.13%. The lowest period ended on 2025-03-12 at 36.64%
🔹The number of days with a win rate above the average is 281. The number of days with a win rate below or equal to the average is 318
🔹The number of days with a win rate above 50% is 137. The number of days with a win rate from 40%–50% is 357. The number of days with a win rate below 40% is 105
#TradingStatistics #CommunityPerformance
🔹The average win rate is 45.74%
🔹The day with the highest win rate was 2026-01-15 at 74.41%. The day with the lowest win rate was 2026-01-25 at 15.69%
🔹The weekday with the highest average win rate is Saturday at 45.94%. The weekday with the lowest average win rate is Monday at 45.49%
🔹The 7-day period with the highest average win rate ended on 2026-01-18 at 62.13%. The lowest period ended on 2025-03-12 at 36.64%
🔹The number of days with a win rate above the average is 281. The number of days with a win rate below or equal to the average is 318
🔹The number of days with a win rate above 50% is 137. The number of days with a win rate from 40%–50% is 357. The number of days with a win rate below 40% is 105
#TradingStatistics #CommunityPerformance
$TURBO
мені відомо два правила 90/90/90:
1) 90% новачків за перших 90 днів втрачають 90% свого капіталу
2) 90% часу, 90% монет падають на 90%
як вам такі деталі та правила?
це все статистика психології чи важелі ринку, ви як вважаєте?
#RulesOfSuccess #statistics #TradingStatistics #Squar2earn #squarecreator
мені відомо два правила 90/90/90:
1) 90% новачків за перших 90 днів втрачають 90% свого капіталу
2) 90% часу, 90% монет падають на 90%
як вам такі деталі та правила?
це все статистика психології чи важелі ринку, ви як вважаєте?
#RulesOfSuccess #statistics #TradingStatistics #Squar2earn #squarecreator
How about this 👀:
With an initial deposit of 100 $USDT 💰
Pic 1 – today’s PNL,
Pic 2 – 3M PNL,
Pics 3 & 4 – 3M statistics 🚀
Leverage: 25x, Win rate: ~56%
Share your thoughts/questions in comments!
#monthlyPNL #TradeSmart #SmallDeposit #PNL #TradingStatistics
With an initial deposit of 100 $USDT 💰
Pic 1 – today’s PNL,
Pic 2 – 3M PNL,
Pics 3 & 4 – 3M statistics 🚀
Leverage: 25x, Win rate: ~56%
Share your thoughts/questions in comments!
#monthlyPNL #TradeSmart #SmallDeposit #PNL #TradingStatistics
📊 MARKET INSIGHT: WINRATE, FGI & TAKE-PROFIT PSYCHOLOGY
📈 Daily winrate data from a trading community using R:R risk management reveals a clear relationship between market sentiment (measured via the Fear & Greed Index – FGI) and the likelihood of hitting take-profit (TP) targets. While all traders use a fixed stop-loss of 1R, their TP levels vary — some aim for 1R, others go for 3R, 5R, or even more. As a result, winrate doesn't reflect profitability but rather the probability of reaching TP, regardless of size.
📊 When market days are grouped by sentiment, the statistics show:
🔴 Extreme Fear: Average winrate 44.33% across 15 days
🟠 Fear: Average winrate 45.19% across 95 days
⚪ Neutral: Average winrate 44.57% across 61 days
🟢 Greed: Average winrate 44.62% across 150 days
🟢🟢 Extreme Greed: Average winrate 42.42% across 60 days
📌 The differences may appear small, but the trend is consistent: fear-driven markets tend to yield higher TP success rates, while euphoric markets produce the lowest. This shift isn’t purely due to market conditions — it’s also behavioral.
🚀 In high-FGI conditions, traders often extend their TP targets, convinced that prices will “keep flying.” Ironically, these are the moments when markets tend to stall, reverse, or fake out — leaving many trades unfinished. In contrast, during fear, TP targets are more conservative, and markets often offer clean technical reactions, improving the odds of a completed trade.
🧠 Statistically speaking, winrate doesn’t tell us who’s making the most money — but it does tell us how generous or stingy the market is with follow-through. When viewed through this lens, numbers reveal what sentiment often hides: the more traders expect, the less accurate they tend to become.
#MarketPsychology #TradingStatistics #WinrateLogic
📈 Daily winrate data from a trading community using R:R risk management reveals a clear relationship between market sentiment (measured via the Fear & Greed Index – FGI) and the likelihood of hitting take-profit (TP) targets. While all traders use a fixed stop-loss of 1R, their TP levels vary — some aim for 1R, others go for 3R, 5R, or even more. As a result, winrate doesn't reflect profitability but rather the probability of reaching TP, regardless of size.
📊 When market days are grouped by sentiment, the statistics show:
🔴 Extreme Fear: Average winrate 44.33% across 15 days
🟠 Fear: Average winrate 45.19% across 95 days
⚪ Neutral: Average winrate 44.57% across 61 days
🟢 Greed: Average winrate 44.62% across 150 days
🟢🟢 Extreme Greed: Average winrate 42.42% across 60 days
📌 The differences may appear small, but the trend is consistent: fear-driven markets tend to yield higher TP success rates, while euphoric markets produce the lowest. This shift isn’t purely due to market conditions — it’s also behavioral.
🚀 In high-FGI conditions, traders often extend their TP targets, convinced that prices will “keep flying.” Ironically, these are the moments when markets tend to stall, reverse, or fake out — leaving many trades unfinished. In contrast, during fear, TP targets are more conservative, and markets often offer clean technical reactions, improving the odds of a completed trade.
🧠 Statistically speaking, winrate doesn’t tell us who’s making the most money — but it does tell us how generous or stingy the market is with follow-through. When viewed through this lens, numbers reveal what sentiment often hides: the more traders expect, the less accurate they tend to become.
#MarketPsychology #TradingStatistics #WinrateLogic
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