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February 12 Market Interpretation: Healthy Correction Against a Bearish Background

Regarding the non-farm data released yesterday, its results exceeded market expectations, causing the originally estimated June interest rate cut to be postponed to July. Although this is objectively a bearish message for the cryptocurrency market, the downward space for BTC prices appears relatively limited. We need to understand that the impact of news often simply follows the trend, playing a role in boosting or enhancing the situation, rather than being a decisive factor.

As for the support range mentioned yesterday, between 63000 and 66000, there may be multiple downward tests of this area in future market conditions. However, this repeated fluctuation is actually a quite good buying opportunity for investors looking for short-term chances.

Due to the fierce confrontation between major CEXs, BNB, OKB, and BGB, these three major platform coins have experienced a sharp decline. However, amidst this chaos, HYPE has shown strong momentum, becoming the biggest winner to profit from it.

Regarding the market analysis on February 11, we will focus on the short-term support and resistance levels. In the medium-term perspective, the potential target range for the rebound is expected to be between 78000 and 85000. For the short-term trend, we need to consider two scenarios: if the market undergoes a secondary bottoming, the support is likely to appear in the range of 63000 to 66000; if the market skips the pullback phase and rises directly, then around 74000 will face short-term resistance testing. In addition, investors need to be aware that starting this week, news will become very active, with important events such as non-farm data, CPI, and the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting coming up.

Regarding the market situation on February 11, we need to focus on the changes in short-term support and resistance levels.

In terms of the medium-term rebound expectations, the current trend targets the range of 78000 to 85000.

Specifically, regarding the assessment of short-term support and resistance, there are two possible paths in the market: if the market chooses to retest the bottom, the area from 62000 to 66000 is expected to form an effective support line; on the contrary, if the market skips the retest and directly rises, the level around 74000 will constitute a short-term resistance.

In addition, it is important to pay special attention to the fact that starting this week, the information front will enter a period of intensive releases, including important events such as non-farm payroll data, CPI index, and Federal Reserve interest rate meetings, which will be rolled out one after another, so please stay alert.

Ultimate Guide to Bottom-Hunting for Bitcoin

When the price of Bitcoin falls below the 50,000 mark, it is recommended to first liquidate stocks, funds, and various financial products in your account, converting all liquid assets into usable funds. If the market continues to decline and falls below 40,000, you should include real estate and valuable items such as cars, properties, gold, and watches in the liquidation scope. Once the price of Bitcoin further drops below 30,000, you should fully mobilize various online credit resources including 360, Douyin, Meituan, and JD Baitiao to obtain the maximum funding support. When Bitcoin finally breaks below the 20,000 mark, it signifies entering the extreme operation phase, where you should raise chips by giving up kidneys, blood, sperm, and other valuable resources.

February 9 Market Outlook: Assessment of the Ultimate Rebound and Subsequent Risks

First, let's review last week's market performance. BTC formed a significant long lower shadow with a massive trading volume. This technical pattern clearly indicates that the 60000 level has established itself as a solid phase bottom. Based on this signal, it is expected that an effective upward offensive will unfold in the market within the next 1 to 2 months, and I anticipate the target range for this rebound to be between 78000 and 85000.

However, investors need to be cautious that after this rebound ends, the market may face a comprehensive collapse crisis. At that time, the downward trend will not be limited to the cryptocurrency space; US stocks and even precious metals and other asset classes may also be involved. Considering the cyclical factors of the second half of the bear market, combined with the political uncertainties triggered by the US midterm elections and the market's own deep correction demands, the entire investment community is likely to face an extremely harsh winter period.

February 7 Market Analysis: The market welcomes a strong rebound

Looking back at yesterday's market performance, Bitcoin's trend completely aligned with our previous predictions. After experiencing a round of decline accompanied by huge trading volumes, the market quickly bottomed out and rebounded with increased volume. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency-related sectors in the US stock market also performed strongly, experiencing a widespread surge.

In terms of specific operations, we accurately identified the key bottom signal of $60000 in a timely manner yesterday morning and decisively positioned ourselves to buy BTC and US stocks at the bottom.

From the current trend, the previous one-sided decline has come to an end. In the next 1 to 2 months, the market will mainly focus on rebound recovery and oscillation consolidation. We have locked in the target range for this rebound between 78000 and 85000. It is important to remind everyone that once this range is broken upwards, it will face intense pressure from trapped positions, so we advise everyone to remain rational and not to hold overly unrealistic expectations.

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We have noticed that BTC is rebounding in sync with the Nasdaq index, showing a positive trend of bottoming out and recovering. For the confirmation of the subsequent trend, the ideal situation is to pay attention to tomorrow morning's closing performance: if a bullish candle with increased trading volume can be formed, solidifying the bottoming out and recovery pattern, then this will be a very positive signal. At that time, we can basically determine that the price level of 60,000 will become the phase bottom in the last two to three months.

2.6 Going Against the Trend: Staying Greedy in Panic

Regarding BTC reaching the 60,000 mark, we define it as a stage of bottoming performance. It is now the moment to enter the market and seize the rebound opportunity, expecting a 30% rebound in price over the following 2 to 3 months. It should be clear that this should be understood as a rebound trend rather than the absolute bottom of a bear market cycle.

The reason for the above judgment is mainly based on the accelerated decline experienced by the market yesterday, accompanied by massive trading volume. Although we saw a huge amount of capital fleeing due to panic, at the same time, a similarly substantial amount of capital entered to absorb the liquidity. This phenomenon is a typical signal of the market confirming a stage bottom under the cloud of panic emotions.

On February 6th, amidst widespread market panic, we must adopt a greedy contrarian mindset. For the current price level of 16,000, we define it as a phase bottom area, which is also a good opportunity to enter and seize rebound chances. Looking ahead to the next 2 to 3 months, the market is expected to welcome a rebound of approximately 30%. However, please remain clear-headed, as this is only a rebound and not the final bottom of the bear market cycle. The conclusion is drawn from the core logic that the market experienced a rapid decline with increased volume yesterday, and while there was a large-scale panic sell-off, a significant amount of capital also entered to absorb liquidity. This intense contest of funds precisely constitutes a clear signal of a phased bottom in market panic sentiment.

2.5 BTC Price Downward Path Outlook

Currently, the key support level of 74000 on the weekly chart has been lost. Although the next weekly low indicated by the technical analysis points to 49000, this level is not expected to be breached all at once. The price will first retrace to the densely distributed chip area of 57000 to 67000, and it is very likely to form a short-term bottom within this range, which will trigger a decent rebound. This process of fluctuation and rebound is expected to last for several months, but investors need to understand that the deeper logic behind such rebounds is mainly to clean up floating short positions and implement a secondary inducement to achieve a re-unification of market costs.

February 4th Market View: The current rebound may seem somewhat fragile.

First, let's look at the weekly chart of BTC, where clear reversal signals have appeared from a technical perspective. The 20-day moving average and the 60-day moving average at the weekly level have formed a death cross, while the price has lost the key previous low of 74500. As the market creates lower new lows, the weekly cycle has actually fully entered a bearish trend.

Investors need to be aware that such large-scale trend adjustments are often difficult to conclude in just two to three months. The market has not yet experienced a true panic sell-off moment, and it is expected that a large-scale bottom structure will not emerge until the second half of the year.

Currently, the upper pressure range has gradually moved down to the line of 81000 to 84000. In the upcoming trend, we are likely to see the price highs and lows display a continuously downward trend.

On February 3rd, the market dynamics show that the crypto sector is experiencing a comprehensive price decline. Just yesterday, several star concept stocks that had previously achieved astonishing increases of 10 to 30 times during this bull market—Coinbase, MSTR, and Robinhood—saw significant declines, with HOOD's drop reaching as much as 10%.

In light of the current market trends, we can confirm that the market is undoubtedly dominated by a bearish trend. However, market sentiment seems not to have fully released yet, and the most panic-inducing phase has yet to arrive. Based on the judgment of the larger cycle, it is still too early to enter for bottom positioning.

For friends focused on short-term trading, it is recommended to pay attention to BTC's upcoming rebound performance. Currently, its rebound target is likely to be within the range of 81000 to 84500.

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2.2 Focus on the once-every-four-years cyclical weekly EMA death cross

1. The weekly EMA20 and EMA60 moving averages of Bitcoin (BTC) have once again formed a death cross pattern, which has not occurred for 4 years. Looking back at historical trajectories, this phenomenon, which appears once every 4 years, has never ceased since 2014.

2. Whenever this death cross pattern is established, it often indicates that the long bear market process has only just reached its halfway point. Although we have not yet entered a phase of accelerated decline that truly triggers panic, everyone needs to be vigilant, as this extreme market condition could arrive at any moment.

3. Historical patterns show that after the death cross occurs, it will be difficult for the price to break through and stabilize above the weekly EMA20. This state of suppression usually continues until the entire bear market cycle is completely over.

2.2 Four-Year Cycle: Weekly EMA Death Cross Pattern

1. History seems to repeat itself; since 2014, that four-year curse has never been absent. Now, in the BTC weekly chart, both the EMA20 and EMA60 moving averages have once again confirmed the death cross signal after a four-year interval.

2. Based on past experiences, the establishment of a death cross usually marks that the bear market is just past its halfway point. Although we have not yet experienced that extreme panic-driven acceleration in decline, everyone still needs to remain vigilant, as such severe fluctuations could erupt at any moment.

3. Another notable pattern is that after the formation of a death cross, unless the bear market is completely over, prices often struggle to break through and stabilize above the key position of the weekly EMA20.

Regarding seizing the best timing to buy the dip in BTC, it is suggested not to limit oneself to observing the single price of BTC; instead, consider a different perspective and focus on the trend of the BTC/AAPL ratio.

Based on past experience, once this ratio reaches the upper bound of the channel, it usually indicates that the BTC price has reached a peak for the stage, and risks follow. At this time, choosing to hold the more stable AAPL stock is a better strategy. Conversely, when this ratio falls back to the lower bound of the channel, it often signals that BTC has bottomed out, revealing investment opportunities; this is a favorable time to switch positions to the highly volatile BTC.