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211金融硕士｜代币投研｜认知决定价值
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Institutional Predictions for BTC's Deep Bear Bottom
Meow Uncle researched the latest weekend reports from numerous institutions and summarized their judgments on the position of BTC's deep bear bottom. Here are the conclusions:
First, after the big drop from 126K to 60K, the rebound has realized a historical peak loss of 2 billion dollars. Then there is a unanimous conclusion from multiple institutions: the market has a demand for a rebound in the short term, but it has not yet reached the true deep bear bottom zone of the crypto world.
Their analysis mainly focuses on four major data dimensions:
Classic indicators (NUPL, MVRV, SOPR, etc.) show that we have not yet entered the deep bear zone (historical bottom corresponds to the 55k-40k range), but the increase in network activity is a positive signal
First, after the big drop from 126K to 60K, the rebound has realized a historical peak loss of 2 billion dollars. Then there is a unanimous conclusion from multiple institutions: the market has a demand for a rebound in the short term, but it has not yet reached the true deep bear bottom zone of the crypto world.
Their analysis mainly focuses on four major data dimensions:
Classic indicators (NUPL, MVRV, SOPR, etc.) show that we have not yet entered the deep bear zone (historical bottom corresponds to the 55k-40k range), but the increase in network activity is a positive signal
2026 Deep Bear Market Simulation: Predicting the Lowest Point of BTC's Bear Market with Shutdown Price
Many people complain to Uncle Meow, 'The price has now fallen below the production cost of mainstream mining machines. Will the market continue to decline, creating an even deeper bottom range?'
This issue has already emerged in 2022. If we consider historical patterns, the market will continue to deviate from the shutdown price of mining machines during times of extreme panic, directly creating a deep pit (the bear market bottom will inevitably briefly break through the mainstream mining machine cost line, and after the clearing of computing power and difficulty adjustment, prices will return to the shutdown price, with the absolute bottom price continuously rising as the industry matures).
This issue has already emerged in 2022. If we consider historical patterns, the market will continue to deviate from the shutdown price of mining machines during times of extreme panic, directly creating a deep pit (the bear market bottom will inevitably briefly break through the mainstream mining machine cost line, and after the clearing of computing power and difficulty adjustment, prices will return to the shutdown price, with the absolute bottom price continuously rising as the industry matures).
From the perspective of miners, explaining why BTC is flatlining around 65000
Uncle Meow believes that the flatlining of the big cake here is greatly related to the current production costs of miners.
In normal market conditions, the trading volume of BTC roughly aligns with its expected production costs—essentially hovering around the marginal cost line for mining new BTC. (It only significantly deviates from this cost line during bubbles).
Specifically, see the figure below:
People familiar with commodities should be very familiar with this number; the production cost line is an important support in the price structure. For example, in the traditional commodity markets—whether it be oil, copper, or gold—their prices often find strong support near production costs. When prices fall below costs, the supply of these commodities naturally contracts, as producers with higher costs will shut down their production, leading to the disappearance of marginal supply and a rebalancing of the market. Thus, this is a self-correcting mechanism that forms dynamically.
In normal market conditions, the trading volume of BTC roughly aligns with its expected production costs—essentially hovering around the marginal cost line for mining new BTC. (It only significantly deviates from this cost line during bubbles).
Specifically, see the figure below:
People familiar with commodities should be very familiar with this number; the production cost line is an important support in the price structure. For example, in the traditional commodity markets—whether it be oil, copper, or gold—their prices often find strong support near production costs. When prices fall below costs, the supply of these commodities naturally contracts, as producers with higher costs will shut down their production, leading to the disappearance of marginal supply and a rebalancing of the market. Thus, this is a self-correcting mechanism that forms dynamically.
Uncle Meow knows that many people are completely disappointed with altcoins.
However, the market volatility of altcoins has now dropped back into the accumulation range of the deep bear market of 2022, and this data can also help confirm that we are in the second half of the deep bear phase.
The difference is that although this round of the bull market has ended, the altcoins from the past two years have not shown any impressive performance (only doge and some memes have performed reasonably well).
Including ETH, as the king of altcoins, ETH briefly returned to the accumulation range of 2022 back in April last year, but later ETH rebounded strongly, yielding more than three times the return.
Now, the drop data of altcoins is the same as ETH's drop data in April.
Assuming a new four-year cycle begins, Uncle Meow believes that altcoins should follow the small-cap stocks in the U.S. market for another round of market action (based on liquidity overflow).
We still need to have some confidence; perhaps this time period is the optimal time to pick altcoins.
However, the market volatility of altcoins has now dropped back into the accumulation range of the deep bear market of 2022, and this data can also help confirm that we are in the second half of the deep bear phase.
The difference is that although this round of the bull market has ended, the altcoins from the past two years have not shown any impressive performance (only doge and some memes have performed reasonably well).
Including ETH, as the king of altcoins, ETH briefly returned to the accumulation range of 2022 back in April last year, but later ETH rebounded strongly, yielding more than three times the return.
Now, the drop data of altcoins is the same as ETH's drop data in April.
Assuming a new four-year cycle begins, Uncle Meow believes that altcoins should follow the small-cap stocks in the U.S. market for another round of market action (based on liquidity overflow).
We still need to have some confidence; perhaps this time period is the optimal time to pick altcoins.
The sale of XRP has triggered a panic sell-off in the market, as the total cost basis of holders has been lost.
Currently, the SOPR (7D EMA) has fallen from 1.16 (July 2025) to 0.96 (now), and holders are realizing significant losses, with on-chain profitability turning negative.
The current structure of XRP is very similar to the phase from September 2021 to May 2022, when the SOPR fell below the <1 range after a long consolidation, which aligns closely with the current situation.
Currently, the SOPR (7D EMA) has fallen from 1.16 (July 2025) to 0.96 (now), and holders are realizing significant losses, with on-chain profitability turning negative.
The current structure of XRP is very similar to the phase from September 2021 to May 2022, when the SOPR fell below the <1 range after a long consolidation, which aligns closely with the current situation.
BTC has now officially entered a downward channel.
On the funding side, ETF funds continue to see net outflows, and the decline is not merely due to emotional panic, but is driven by real spot selling.
In the options market, the real driving force is institutions reducing their spot holdings. Looking at Gamma, it acts as an amplifier; as long as the funds from the spot do not flow back (related to sentiment), the market lacks the ability to absorb the selling pressure above 70k.
From the market maker's perspective, the puts they sold have once again entered the in-the-money (ITM) region. This data is not as severe as the previous crash, but market makers are still in a negative Gamma state. Any rebound will face their hedging selling pressure, and the implied volatility (IV) has basically not changed. A decline without panic is neither good nor bad. Because no one is hedging wildly, it indicates that everyone might have already hedged before the significant drop or are quietly exiting the market.
Therefore, under a condition of sustained stable volatility, it is difficult for the market to have a V-shaped recovery.
Next is Delta, with a Delta Skew of 0.15 at -16.62, still in a bearish state. The proportion of large bullish positions reaches as high as 29.34%, exceeding the 27.43% of large bearish positions. Typically, in a market downturn, a large volume of bullish positions is often a signal to sell calls. Currently, institutions in the market may be judging that Bitcoin will not hold above 70 in the short term, thus selling 70k and 72k call options to earn premiums and offset spot losses, which also adds heavy Gamma pressure above, suppressing Bitcoin's rebound.
On the funding side, ETF funds continue to see net outflows, and the decline is not merely due to emotional panic, but is driven by real spot selling.
In the options market, the real driving force is institutions reducing their spot holdings. Looking at Gamma, it acts as an amplifier; as long as the funds from the spot do not flow back (related to sentiment), the market lacks the ability to absorb the selling pressure above 70k.
From the market maker's perspective, the puts they sold have once again entered the in-the-money (ITM) region. This data is not as severe as the previous crash, but market makers are still in a negative Gamma state. Any rebound will face their hedging selling pressure, and the implied volatility (IV) has basically not changed. A decline without panic is neither good nor bad. Because no one is hedging wildly, it indicates that everyone might have already hedged before the significant drop or are quietly exiting the market.
Therefore, under a condition of sustained stable volatility, it is difficult for the market to have a V-shaped recovery.
Next is Delta, with a Delta Skew of 0.15 at -16.62, still in a bearish state. The proportion of large bullish positions reaches as high as 29.34%, exceeding the 27.43% of large bearish positions. Typically, in a market downturn, a large volume of bullish positions is often a signal to sell calls. Currently, institutions in the market may be judging that Bitcoin will not hold above 70 in the short term, thus selling 70k and 72k call options to earn premiums and offset spot losses, which also adds heavy Gamma pressure above, suppressing Bitcoin's rebound.
I bought the dip on ORCL;
Uncle Meow feels that this is the most severely underestimated category among all AI stocks, so I jumped into ORCL around 147;
The technical aspect also shows that this guy has no bubbles left;
Even if it continues to go down, it won't be very deep, at most it will just be a halving;
However, after looking at the fundamentals, I really don't believe that ORCL, with such good performance, can continue to halve. Since the probability of it halving is extremely low, Uncle Meow should have no problem jumping in now and taking responsibility for my choice.
Uncle Meow feels that this is the most severely underestimated category among all AI stocks, so I jumped into ORCL around 147;
The technical aspect also shows that this guy has no bubbles left;
Even if it continues to go down, it won't be very deep, at most it will just be a halving;
However, after looking at the fundamentals, I really don't believe that ORCL, with such good performance, can continue to halve. Since the probability of it halving is extremely low, Uncle Meow should have no problem jumping in now and taking responsibility for my choice.
Institutional trading players were surprisingly scared like this. Aside from the initial rebound after the high point of 127,000, the fees for BN remained neutral throughout the entire decline. $BTC
Until recently, after reaching 60K, the confidence of the institutional players in Bitcoin was completely shattered, leading to negative values. It is no longer about whether the market wants to bear or not, but rather that the players have already tacitly accepted a bear market.
The last time this situation occurred was in July 2022.
Therefore, Uncle Meow is also emphasizing that Bitcoin has already entered the latter half of a deep bear market.
At this moment, it is just like that time.
Until recently, after reaching 60K, the confidence of the institutional players in Bitcoin was completely shattered, leading to negative values. It is no longer about whether the market wants to bear or not, but rather that the players have already tacitly accepted a bear market.
The last time this situation occurred was in July 2022.
Therefore, Uncle Meow is also emphasizing that Bitcoin has already entered the latter half of a deep bear market.
At this moment, it is just like that time.
RPB can also prove that the bear market cycle of BTC has now passed halfway $BTC
Next is to wait for bottoming out, or directly start the DCA plan
Next is to wait for bottoming out, or directly start the DCA plan
The reason for BTC's weak rebound this time (February 9)
In this rebound, many users are expecting Bitcoin to rise to around 78000, but the overall rebound trend of BTC is very weak, and it hasn't even broken through the pressure line of 74000.
What is the reason? In fact, the data from the derivatives market can explain it.
The number of buyers in futures has once again become negative when calculated on a monthly average;
The number of buyers in futures has once again become negative when calculated on a monthly average;
In fact, this data showed a brief recovery during the sideways period from November to January, but the buying power has returned to about 36 million dollars, and now the data has turned into a net sell of 272 million dollars;
What is the reason? In fact, the data from the derivatives market can explain it.
The number of buyers in futures has once again become negative when calculated on a monthly average;
The number of buyers in futures has once again become negative when calculated on a monthly average;
In fact, this data showed a brief recovery during the sideways period from November to January, but the buying power has returned to about 36 million dollars, and now the data has turned into a net sell of 272 million dollars;
When the volume remains low and the price of Bitcoin does not drop, the true bottom of the market appears; $BTC
Presented with MACD, it indicates a continuous divergence on the weekly chart.
Presented with MACD, it indicates a continuous divergence on the weekly chart.
Will MicroStrategy MSTR collapse? When to buy the dip??
$BTC Many friends who do not want to hold Bitcoin ask Uncle Meow, "If I don't hold Bitcoin, can I just hold MSTR? Will the expected returns be higher in the future?"
The answer to this question is simple: "Returns will definitely be higher, but the premise is that you must endure through a deeper bear bottom." Without this mental preparation, I do not recommend getting into MSTR.
MicroStrategy was originally a software vendor, and later in 2020 began a full transformation into a BTC strategic reserve company, becoming the world's first "BTC asset management company." After five years of accumulation, they are currently the largest corporate holder of BTC, with an average holding cost of $76,000, and under the leadership of Saylor, their motto is to only buy and not sell.
The answer to this question is simple: "Returns will definitely be higher, but the premise is that you must endure through a deeper bear bottom." Without this mental preparation, I do not recommend getting into MSTR.
MicroStrategy was originally a software vendor, and later in 2020 began a full transformation into a BTC strategic reserve company, becoming the world's first "BTC asset management company." After five years of accumulation, they are currently the largest corporate holder of BTC, with an average holding cost of $76,000, and under the leadership of Saylor, their motto is to only buy and not sell.
Actually, the market sentiment today is much better than yesterday, but the big coin has softened again near 71K.
From a data perspective, this is the case: there are dense spot and leverage sell orders near 72K, and after a rebound of 10K points, the bullish delta has approached 3B, so it is exhausted.
Although the subsequent CVD is still going up, the price of the big coin has not been able to break above, and the upward momentum has been absorbed.
Of course, there is one more thing: today there was news about Garrett's shipment, which can also be considered a technical level of suppression. (The big coin stopped falling after encountering the VWAP that came from the needle tip at 67K, while increasing volume to 150m in 38 seconds. In the recent spike market, the anchor VWAP from the needle tip has provided the first round of support each time).
So from the perspective of the bears, if they can break through 67K next, it will effectively break the VWAP downwards. However, if Garrett finishes selling and still cannot break through 67K, then we will continue to oscillate between the VWAP until CME opens this weekend.
We have now returned to the large range that oscillated for 8 months in 2024 (50K——74K). Within this range, there was a large amount of buying last year, so this range is relatively solid and is very likely to be the true bottom confirmation of this round of the bear market.
From a data perspective, this is the case: there are dense spot and leverage sell orders near 72K, and after a rebound of 10K points, the bullish delta has approached 3B, so it is exhausted.
Although the subsequent CVD is still going up, the price of the big coin has not been able to break above, and the upward momentum has been absorbed.
Of course, there is one more thing: today there was news about Garrett's shipment, which can also be considered a technical level of suppression. (The big coin stopped falling after encountering the VWAP that came from the needle tip at 67K, while increasing volume to 150m in 38 seconds. In the recent spike market, the anchor VWAP from the needle tip has provided the first round of support each time).
So from the perspective of the bears, if they can break through 67K next, it will effectively break the VWAP downwards. However, if Garrett finishes selling and still cannot break through 67K, then we will continue to oscillate between the VWAP until CME opens this weekend.
We have now returned to the large range that oscillated for 8 months in 2024 (50K——74K). Within this range, there was a large amount of buying last year, so this range is relatively solid and is very likely to be the true bottom confirmation of this round of the bear market.
The price of Bitcoin has already dropped to 60K, and many brothers have started to complain to Uncle Meow, beginning to feel confused, lost, and wanting to run away.
But Uncle Meow still wants to say what’s on his mind again today:
Assuming you are not a god, you do not know where the ultimate bottom of Bitcoin is;
Then I suggest you start dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into BTC from now on;
The cash you hold is being legally stolen from you, while BTC is currently the simplest and most hardcore way to resist.
The cash you save is actually decreasing every day.
You cannot outrun inflation, which means you are constantly losing money. The bank's 2-3% interest rate can't even keep up with rising prices, let alone the things that are genuinely increasing like housing prices, bubble tea, education, and healthcare.
What exactly is Bitcoin hedging against?
It is not hedging against “rising to 1 million,” but rather the continuous devaluation of fiat currency. The total amount of Bitcoin is 21 million, and it will never be printed more. It has no central bank, no government, and no one can casually leverage or inflate it. Simply put: it is the most pure “hard currency” you can buy.
So why not go all in at once, but rather DCA?
Because no one can accurately time the bottom, and no one can always sell at the highest point. The best part of DCA is that it completely transforms the act of “guessing prices” into “exchanging time for certainty.” If it goes up, you’re happy and continue buying; if it goes down, even better, it's like buying more on discount. Looking at the long term, what you are buying is the increasing recognition of Bitcoin, not the price on a specific day.
What do ordinary people lack the most?
Not the principal, not the news, not the technical analysis of charts.
But rather a simple way to consistently do one thing.
DCA into BTC is the simplest and most suitable method for ordinary people:
No need to monitor the market every day
No need for advanced knowledge
No need to bet on direction
Just need to set aside a portion of money every month or every two weeks to buy, then close your wallet and go live your life.
The next 10 years will likely be a decade where fiat currency continues to devalue, and hard assets continue to be scarce.
If young people don't start allocating a bit of “inflation-resistant assets” now, by the time you wake up at 40 or 50, you may really have to pay a much bigger price to catch up.
I’m not telling you to go all in, or to borrow money, or to quit your job.
Just: starting today, set aside the money for a hot pot meal or a pair of shoes, and quietly DCA a bit of BTC.
It’s not about faith, it’s about a survival strategy.
But Uncle Meow still wants to say what’s on his mind again today:
Assuming you are not a god, you do not know where the ultimate bottom of Bitcoin is;
Then I suggest you start dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into BTC from now on;
The cash you hold is being legally stolen from you, while BTC is currently the simplest and most hardcore way to resist.
The cash you save is actually decreasing every day.
You cannot outrun inflation, which means you are constantly losing money. The bank's 2-3% interest rate can't even keep up with rising prices, let alone the things that are genuinely increasing like housing prices, bubble tea, education, and healthcare.
What exactly is Bitcoin hedging against?
It is not hedging against “rising to 1 million,” but rather the continuous devaluation of fiat currency. The total amount of Bitcoin is 21 million, and it will never be printed more. It has no central bank, no government, and no one can casually leverage or inflate it. Simply put: it is the most pure “hard currency” you can buy.
So why not go all in at once, but rather DCA?
Because no one can accurately time the bottom, and no one can always sell at the highest point. The best part of DCA is that it completely transforms the act of “guessing prices” into “exchanging time for certainty.” If it goes up, you’re happy and continue buying; if it goes down, even better, it's like buying more on discount. Looking at the long term, what you are buying is the increasing recognition of Bitcoin, not the price on a specific day.
What do ordinary people lack the most?
Not the principal, not the news, not the technical analysis of charts.
But rather a simple way to consistently do one thing.
DCA into BTC is the simplest and most suitable method for ordinary people:
No need to monitor the market every day
No need for advanced knowledge
No need to bet on direction
Just need to set aside a portion of money every month or every two weeks to buy, then close your wallet and go live your life.
The next 10 years will likely be a decade where fiat currency continues to devalue, and hard assets continue to be scarce.
If young people don't start allocating a bit of “inflation-resistant assets” now, by the time you wake up at 40 or 50, you may really have to pay a much bigger price to catch up.
I’m not telling you to go all in, or to borrow money, or to quit your job.
Just: starting today, set aside the money for a hot pot meal or a pair of shoes, and quietly DCA a bit of BTC.
It’s not about faith, it’s about a survival strategy.
The MVRV data of Bitcoin has always been one of the core data points for determining the bottom range of Bitcoin. Although some recent trends in MVRV may have distorted the authenticity of the data, such as the large-scale UTXO consolidation on Coinbase, MVRV remains an important reference for monitoring market sentiment.
This data compares Bitcoin's market value (calculated by price multiplied by supply) with its realized value, the latter reflecting the price at which Bitcoin was last moved in the market, i.e., the price of each BTC at the time of its last movement.
Currently, MVRV is in the 0% to 10% percentile, which indicates that the MVRV of this cycle is at an extremely low level, with MVRV being above this value for more than 90% of the time in the cycle.
This indicates that the market is entering an extreme pressure zone, and the current range is attractive to long-term players; however, the market sentiment is indeed extremely fearful, and the strength of the bears has not weakened. On the other hand, when MVRV reaches the 90% range, Bitcoin often enters an overheating phase, and these periods are always followed by downward adjustments in BTC.
In conclusion, if you are a long-term player and can hold for the long term without expecting to buy at the lowest point, then starting DCA now is perfectly fine. However, if you want to wait for the exhaustion of bearish strength and wish for a more favorable price, then Uncle Meow believes that the current price is still a round of downward slaughter away from the bottom (personal opinion) and then sideways.
This data compares Bitcoin's market value (calculated by price multiplied by supply) with its realized value, the latter reflecting the price at which Bitcoin was last moved in the market, i.e., the price of each BTC at the time of its last movement.
Currently, MVRV is in the 0% to 10% percentile, which indicates that the MVRV of this cycle is at an extremely low level, with MVRV being above this value for more than 90% of the time in the cycle.
This indicates that the market is entering an extreme pressure zone, and the current range is attractive to long-term players; however, the market sentiment is indeed extremely fearful, and the strength of the bears has not weakened. On the other hand, when MVRV reaches the 90% range, Bitcoin often enters an overheating phase, and these periods are always followed by downward adjustments in BTC.
In conclusion, if you are a long-term player and can hold for the long term without expecting to buy at the lowest point, then starting DCA now is perfectly fine. However, if you want to wait for the exhaustion of bearish strength and wish for a more favorable price, then Uncle Meow believes that the current price is still a round of downward slaughter away from the bottom (personal opinion) and then sideways.
What stage has BTC's bear market reached? Can we bottom fish?
Here, Uncle Meow makes judgments based on the data released by Glassnode.
After October 11, 2025, the market sentiment of on-chain users began to undergo a drastic change, so we can attribute the 1011 event as the starting point of this bear market.
In the next ~100 days, the price of BTC has fallen by 45% (110,000 USD - 60,000 USD), using indicators verified in the previous three bull and bear cycles, the severity of the bear market and the current stage of the bear market can now be assessed.
1. CLRP
This indicator observes the cumulative profits realized by long-term holders from the ATH to the final peak in each cycle. Since October 11, LTHs have additionally realized about 318,000 BTC in profits, which is an unusually large proportion. Therefore, after the market weakens, this realized profit will continue to exert downward pressure on the market. From the data, the downward pressure in November and December 2025 is continuously accumulating. However, since the beginning of December, the growth of LSH has slowed down, indicating that the profit realization speed of LTH is also slowing down.
After October 11, 2025, the market sentiment of on-chain users began to undergo a drastic change, so we can attribute the 1011 event as the starting point of this bear market.
In the next ~100 days, the price of BTC has fallen by 45% (110,000 USD - 60,000 USD), using indicators verified in the previous three bull and bear cycles, the severity of the bear market and the current stage of the bear market can now be assessed.
1. CLRP
This indicator observes the cumulative profits realized by long-term holders from the ATH to the final peak in each cycle. Since October 11, LTHs have additionally realized about 318,000 BTC in profits, which is an unusually large proportion. Therefore, after the market weakens, this realized profit will continue to exert downward pressure on the market. From the data, the downward pressure in November and December 2025 is continuously accumulating. However, since the beginning of December, the growth of LSH has slowed down, indicating that the profit realization speed of LTH is also slowing down.
Is it better to buy the dip in BTC or ETH? This is an interesting question.
This question emerged during the last bear market cycle, especially at the end of 2022, when ETH's decline was much smaller than BTC's. As a result, many OGs began to change their views on ETH, believing that after 2023, ETH's performance would clearly outperform BTC.
However, what happened next was contrary to expectations; BTC's momentum remained much stronger than ETH's.
Why is this the case?
From the charts, if we consider the ETH/BTC range formed in 2017 as a consolidation pattern, as of now, ETH's consolidation has lasted nearly 9 years. Since that year, ETH/BTC has hardly ever entered a real upward trend.
It has never been able to break through the range formed in 2017.
Even when a huge bullish hammer candlestick appeared in 2025, firmly rejecting the decline near 0.017, indicating strong support here, there was still no strong upward trend afterward.
Currently, ETH/BTC is right next to the bottom line of this area. If we believe that ETH is a top-quality asset and trust that this large range formed over 9 years will be broken in the future, then when the trend line of ETH/BTC falls below the range, that would be an opportunity.
If you do not believe this and think that ETH will be replaced by SOL, then you should execute a DCA strategy for SOL at the bottom.
Is there a simpler method?
Only children make choices; later, we will directly include BTC, ETH, and SOL into the DCA strategy. As for their total allocation ratios, it depends on your perceived weight of ETH and SOL.
Although ETH is already at the bottom of the range, DCA must manage risks and be prepared for long-term holding.
This question emerged during the last bear market cycle, especially at the end of 2022, when ETH's decline was much smaller than BTC's. As a result, many OGs began to change their views on ETH, believing that after 2023, ETH's performance would clearly outperform BTC.
However, what happened next was contrary to expectations; BTC's momentum remained much stronger than ETH's.
Why is this the case?
From the charts, if we consider the ETH/BTC range formed in 2017 as a consolidation pattern, as of now, ETH's consolidation has lasted nearly 9 years. Since that year, ETH/BTC has hardly ever entered a real upward trend.
It has never been able to break through the range formed in 2017.
Even when a huge bullish hammer candlestick appeared in 2025, firmly rejecting the decline near 0.017, indicating strong support here, there was still no strong upward trend afterward.
Currently, ETH/BTC is right next to the bottom line of this area. If we believe that ETH is a top-quality asset and trust that this large range formed over 9 years will be broken in the future, then when the trend line of ETH/BTC falls below the range, that would be an opportunity.
If you do not believe this and think that ETH will be replaced by SOL, then you should execute a DCA strategy for SOL at the bottom.
Is there a simpler method?
Only children make choices; later, we will directly include BTC, ETH, and SOL into the DCA strategy. As for their total allocation ratios, it depends on your perceived weight of ETH and SOL.
Although ETH is already at the bottom of the range, DCA must manage risks and be prepared for long-term holding.
$SUI has not yet stopped falling. From the data, it seems that the downturn of the SUI chain began in the second half of 2025, and there has not been much improvement by the end of 2025.
In mid-2025, the first DEFI protocol on the SUI chain, CETUS, was hacked, resulting in a total loss of 60 million. Later, SUI took decisive action, using a blacklist and proxy trading to forcibly recover the stolen funds while compensating users for their losses. I must admit that SUI handled this matter very well.
Although this incident ended satisfactorily, it planted seeds of doubt regarding the security of SUI at that time. The most discussed issue was the decentralization of the SUI chain; the SUI chain can directly freeze funds, leading to centralization FUD (although I believe security is more important, many foreign players think that the SUI chain is centralized, which goes against the original intention of blockchain). Later, there were also reports of security issues with the Momentum protocol, further deepening the security FUD surrounding the SUI chain.
This is also one of the reasons why SUI performed weaker than many altcoins later on.
In mid-2025, the first DEFI protocol on the SUI chain, CETUS, was hacked, resulting in a total loss of 60 million. Later, SUI took decisive action, using a blacklist and proxy trading to forcibly recover the stolen funds while compensating users for their losses. I must admit that SUI handled this matter very well.
Although this incident ended satisfactorily, it planted seeds of doubt regarding the security of SUI at that time. The most discussed issue was the decentralization of the SUI chain; the SUI chain can directly freeze funds, leading to centralization FUD (although I believe security is more important, many foreign players think that the SUI chain is centralized, which goes against the original intention of blockchain). Later, there were also reports of security issues with the Momentum protocol, further deepening the security FUD surrounding the SUI chain.
This is also one of the reasons why SUI performed weaker than many altcoins later on.
The recent decline of altcoins is a bit strange. According to the previous bull market experience, if altcoins experience a significant decline, it usually means that they will bottom out. This is also a standard for buying the dip (the volume must not be low, and the decline also cannot be low).
However, from the data, the decline of altcoins in these days has been noticeable, but the trading volume has not increased.
It feels like something major is brewing.
However, from the data, the decline of altcoins in these days has been noticeable, but the trading volume has not increased.
It feels like something major is brewing.
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