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The Butterfly Effect of the Gold Crash
$5,590 → $4,404. Gold plummeted 21% in two weeks. The largest single-day drop since 1983.
Silver fell even harder. From $121 to $71. A 31% drop in one day. Unseen since 1980.
What is the trigger? Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as Fed chair. The market repriced the entire yield curve in a second.

But there is a second-order effect that has been overlooked:
Gold crash → Leveraged longs get liquidated → Forced selling of other assets to cover margins → Software stocks get hit → $MSFT drops 12% in one day, evaporating $357B → Risk sentiment transmits to Crypto → BTC breaks below $60,000 in the same week.-----------------------------

On February 6, 2026, an employee of Bithumb, South Korea's second-largest exchange, mistakenly issued '2000 KRW' (approximately $1.37) as '2000 BTC' (approximately $133 million) during a promotional reward distribution.
Not just to one person. But to hundreds of users.
Suddenly, 2000 bitcoins appeared out of nowhere in these user accounts. Then something very human happened—they started selling. They sold like crazy. The BTC/KRW trading pair on Bithumb plummeted 15.8% within minutes, with the price once being smashed down to 81 million won (approximately $55,000), while at the same time, the BTC price on other exchanges around the world remained stable above $67,000.

Trend Research, led by Yi Lihua, has basically completed the liquidation of ETH today. The final figure is out: a loss of $734 million. This is not something a Twitter account made up; it was painstakingly pulled together by on-chain analyst Yu Jin from the records of Aave and Binance.
First, let's see what they actually did.
First operation: Bought 231,000 ETH at an average price of $2,667, liquidated at $4,027, making $315 million. Impressive. A textbook-level swing trade. If the story ended here, Yi Lihua would be one of the smartest whales in this cycle.

But he didn’t stop.
Second operation: Increased position by buying 651,500 ETH at an average price of $3,180. The position was directly tripled from the first time. What’s worse is the method of operation — borrowing stablecoins from Aave to buy ETH, then using the ETH as collateral to borrow more stablecoins to buy even more ETH. This is a classic cyclical leverage strategy, yielding exponential returns during rises, but experiencing exponential acceleration in losses during declines.

Bitcoin Ahr999 indicator dropped to 0.27.
This is a bottom-fishing indicator created by Nine Gods. Calculation formula: (current price / 200-day cost of regular investment) × (current price / index growth valuation). A value below 0.45 is considered the "bottom line".
When was the last time Ahr999 dropped to 0.27?
November 22, 2022. FTX collapse.
June 18, 2022. ETH crash, Three Arrows Capital liquidation, Luna aftermath.
March 16, 2020. Panic over the epidemic, "312 crash

Three times. Each time was the darkest moment in market history. Each time afterwards was a sharp rebound.
This does not mean that now is the bottom. Historical similarity does not equal inevitable repetition. But this indicator says: from a valuation perspective, Bitcoin is as cheap now as it was during those moments.

24 hours. $860 million liquidated. Among them, long positions account for $740 million.
This is not $145 million from 2022 – that was the number during the FTX collapse. This is six times that.
The Aster platform recorded the largest single liquidation: a long position of $11.36 million in BTC/USDT. One person (or one entity) evaporated eleven million in seconds.
The mechanism of cascading liquidations is simple: price drops → triggers leveraged long stop-loss → forced selling → price drops further → triggers more stop-losses. It cycles until leverage is cleared.
Data breakdown: BTC dropped below $70,000 triggering the first wave. Dropped below $65,000 triggering the second wave. Currently at $64,781, close to the psychological level of $60,000. If it breaks, the third wave may be even more severe.

February 5. BTC fell below $65,000. $860 million liquidated in 24 hours. The Fear and Greed Index dropped into "Extreme Fear."
On the same day, Bitwise submitted the S-1 filing for the first Uniswap spot ETF to the SEC.
Let me put these two things together: the market is experiencing one of the bloodiest sell-offs since 2024, and an asset management company chose to apply for an ETF for DeFi tokens at this moment.
Not BTC. Not ETH. It's UNI—a governance token for a decentralized exchange. Current price $3.21, 24-hour decline 13.76%.
Coinbase has been designated as the custodian. This means an institutional-level compliance framework.

BTC dropped below $70,000.
ETH is approaching $1,900. Actual low point $1,745.
24-hour liquidation: $860 million.
Among them, the long positions account for over 80%.
Fear and Greed Index: 5.
Not 50. Not 15. It's 5.
The term "extreme fear" has become insufficient.
When was the last time you saw this number? November 2022.

BlackRock's IBIT traded $10 billion yesterday.
Historic high.
The last record was $8 billion in November last year. Usually? $3 billion is considered lively.
Eric Balchunas (Bloomberg ETF analyst) said: "Brutal."
Because this $10 billion was not a buy — IBIT fell 13% that day, marking the second worst single-day performance since its launch.
Put option premiums hit a historic high. 25 volatility points higher than Calls.
This is the institution hedging. Or rather, it’s about taking a loss.
Data from Bob Elliott (CIO of Unlimited Funds): As of Friday's close, the average purchase cost of IBIT is already at a loss.

Strategy holds 713,502 BTC. Average cost $76,052.
At this moment, BTC is quoted at $65,850.
Paper loss: approximately $7.3 billion.
Q4 financial report just released: net loss of $12.4 billion. This is not an operational loss—it's a paper result under fair value accounting, where BTC fell from $120,000 to $89,000.
CEO Phong Le said a phrase that the whole market is forwarding:
"BTC needs to drop to $8,000 and stay there for 5-6 years to threaten our debt repayment ability."
$8,000.
Is this number ridiculous? Based on the current price, it needs to drop another 88%.
But the market doesn't care about math. What the market cares about is: at what price will this company be forced to sell its coins?

When the roadmap changes, the price of coins is just noise.
According to a report by The Block, Vitalik Buterin stated in an article on February 3 that Ethereum's past 'rollup-centric' roadmap needs to be re-evaluated—L2 decentralization is progressing slower than expected, while Ethereum L1 itself is directly scaling through higher gas limits and lower fees.
The impact of this statement lies not in the technology but in the narrative: if L1 continues to strengthen, will the reason for L2's existence be diluted?
The logic of the bull market is straightforward: let L1 take on more throughput, reduce complexity, and minimize cross-layer friction; users do not need to understand dozens of L2s to enjoy a low-fee experience.

The story of a valuation of 500 billion, halfway through, was paused by investors.
Reuters cited FT as reporting: After investors expressed resistance to the valuation, Tether pushed back the previously discussed financing narrative of '15-20 billion' to a range of 'at least 5 billion is fine.'
This is not a minor repair; this is a signal: the stablecoin giant acknowledges for the first time in public that the capital market also has its ceiling.
Because the moat of stablecoins lies not only in technology but also in trust, regulation, and 'whose shadow bank are you exactly.'
In the same report, another number stands out: the market cap of USDT in circulation is written as approximately 187 billion dollars. You may dislike it, but you cannot ignore it.

ETH is not falling; it is being squeezed in the liquidation zone.
Crypto.com API shows that as of 2026-02-04 19:08 (SGT), the latest price of ETH/USD is 2,233, with a 24-hour range of 2,347→2,107 and a 24-hour change of -2.13%.
The market interprets this as 'pattern deterioration', but I am more concerned about: the leverage structure is pushing the price into a narrow corridor.
The intuition behind derivative data is quite simple: there is a stack of over $1 billion in long liquidation strength in the area about 3.9% below the current price level; in the area about 6.0% above, there is a stack of nearly $800 million in short liquidation strength.

Open source is not charity. Open source is strategy.
Tether has released the open-source Bitcoin mining operating system MiningOS: modular, scalable, and self-hosted. It communicates with devices through an integrated peer-to-peer network, built on the Holepunch protocol, and is open under the Apache 2.0 license. Its aim is clear - to reduce miners' reliance on closed, vendor-controlled software.
You can look at this matter from two completely opposite perspectives.
Bullish perspective: This is the 'Linux moment' for Bitcoin mining. - Small miners finally have options that are not locked by software vendors; - Self-hosted systems + P2P communication mean less dependence on centralization; - Open source and auditable, reducing risks of backdoors and black boxes; - A unified operating layer integrates hardware, energy consumption, device health, and mining infrastructure, leveling operational efficiency.

U.S. stocks don't sleep anymore. You should no longer understand risk with 'opening and closing.'
Ondo launches Ondo Perps: allowing users to trade mainstream U.S. stocks and ETFs' perpetual contracts 24/7 (open to users outside the U.S.), and allows tokenized securities as collateral, with cross-margining and up to 20x leverage.
If you only see it as 'just another derivative product,' you will underestimate it. The real change is: the time barrier has been dismantled.
A hidden advantage of traditional markets is the 'market closure.' Market closure means: - Risks are forced to pause; - News has a buffer period; - Market makers have a window to repair their balance sheets. Meanwhile, 24/7 perpetual means: it can be repriced at any moment, and any sentiment can be immediately leveraged.

Gold breaks five thousand. BTC did not follow.
The current price of Bitcoin is $76,631. It is not 'failing.' It is merely playing the role it more commonly plays at this stage: a liquidity thermometer in risk assets.
Many people treat 'digital gold' as an eternal label. But the market never recognizes labels. The market only recognizes function: when fear arises from geopolitical conflicts, sovereign credit, and uncertainty in the monetary system, gold's function is 'safety that requires no explanation'; Bitcoin's function is more like 'an optional future.'
You can view today's market as a vote: capital is telling you through action — it currently prefers certainty over imagination.