Bitcoin Ahr999 indicator dropped to 0.27.
This is a bottom-fishing indicator created by Nine Gods. Calculation formula: (current price / 200-day cost of regular investment) × (current price / index growth valuation). A value below 0.45 is considered the "bottom line".
When was the last time Ahr999 dropped to 0.27?
November 22, 2022. FTX collapse.
June 18, 2022. ETH crash, Three Arrows Capital liquidation, Luna aftermath.
March 16, 2020. Panic over the epidemic, "312 crash
Three times. Each time was the darkest moment in market history. Each time afterwards was a sharp rebound.
This does not mean that now is the bottom. Historical similarity does not equal inevitable repetition. But this indicator says: from a valuation perspective, Bitcoin is as cheap now as it was during those moments.
Why did it drop to this level?
Macroeconomic factors: Precious metals also plummeted yesterday. Silver fell over 30% in a single day. Gold rebounded after breaking below $4,700. Yen carry trades are being closed. This is a wave of risk aversion across assets.
Unique factors of encryption: Continuous outflow from ETF. The Q4 report of Strategy revealed a book loss of $12.4 billion. Large hedge funds may be facing forced liquidation. Leverage is being systematically cleared.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. What happened after November 2022? A bottom of $15,500, followed by a year and a half of recovery, and then a new high by the end of 2024.
What happened after March 2020? A bottom of $3,800, followed by the craziest bull market in history.
The question is: How much decline can you withstand? Because even if this is the bottom area, there may be another panic sell-off before it hits the bottom.
Ahr999 will not tell you the exact bottom. It will only tell you: the current bottom looks similar to historical bottoms.
