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The Night of the Inflation Turning Point: Where Will the CPI Push the Federal Reserve?
Eastern Standard Time, February 13, 2026, 21:30. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the CPI for January 2026, which is seen as a key coordinate for the inflation trajectory and the turning point of Federal Reserve policy. Over the past year, inflation has slowly receded from high levels, and the market has repeatedly oscillated between the narrative of the 'end of the rate hike cycle' and 'when to shift to easing', with sentiment highly sensitive to bets on slowing inflation and policy shifts. Meanwhile, independent institutions like Truflation have signaled a more drastic decline in inflation but have been marked as sources pending verification. The potential divergence between official CPI and independent indicators is brewing a narrative dispute. Tonight's data not only concerns the Fed's next steps but may also redefine the main storyline of global risk assets in 2026, especially in the cryptocurrency market.
AiCoin Daily Report (February 13)
1. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. is 227,000, slightly above expectations
As of February 7, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was 227,000, with an expectation of 222,000, and the previous value was revised from 231,000 to 232,000. AI Interpretation: The number of initial jobless claims is slightly higher than expected, indicating continued tightness in the labor market. This data suggests that despite challenges facing the economy, the unemployment rate remains relatively low, reflecting strong demand for employees. Market confidence in future economic trends may therefore receive some support, especially in a high-interest-rate environment, as the resilience of the labor market will influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. -Original text
As of February 7, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was 227,000, with an expectation of 222,000, and the previous value was revised from 231,000 to 232,000. AI Interpretation: The number of initial jobless claims is slightly higher than expected, indicating continued tightness in the labor market. This data suggests that despite challenges facing the economy, the unemployment rate remains relatively low, reflecting strong demand for employees. Market confidence in future economic trends may therefore receive some support, especially in a high-interest-rate environment, as the resilience of the labor market will influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. -Original text
Analysis of ETH Price Fluctuations: Risk Aversion and Leverage Liquidation Both Strike
Event Review 💡
Around 23:30 last night, the price of ETH began to experience significant fluctuations. From a high of approximately $1977, it fell sharply to $1912 in just 51 minutes, a decrease of 3.28%. Another set of data shows that between 23:30 and 00:30, the price dropped from $1973 to $1894, with a decline of up to 4.01%. Subsequently, the market saw a partial rebound, and by 00:50, the price of ETH had risen to $1911.63. Overall, this round of significant fluctuations erupted under the dual effects of weak global macroeconomic signals and high-leverage trading triggering a chain liquidation, fully reflecting the sensitive response of the digital asset market under the double pressure of risk aversion and position risk.
Around 23:30 last night, the price of ETH began to experience significant fluctuations. From a high of approximately $1977, it fell sharply to $1912 in just 51 minutes, a decrease of 3.28%. Another set of data shows that between 23:30 and 00:30, the price dropped from $1973 to $1894, with a decline of up to 4.01%. Subsequently, the market saw a partial rebound, and by 00:50, the price of ETH had risen to $1911.63. Overall, this round of significant fluctuations erupted under the dual effects of weak global macroeconomic signals and high-leverage trading triggering a chain liquidation, fully reflecting the sensitive response of the digital asset market under the double pressure of risk aversion and position risk.
U.S.-Iran Conflict: Will Bitcoin Be the First Casualty?
At 8:00 AM UTC on February 12, the curtains in the conference room on the second floor of the White House in Washington were drawn for three hours. When he came out, Netanyahu had a restrained expression, while Trump's social media account was unusually active—not announcing that an agreement was reached, but directly addressing Tehran: 'Last time they didn’t sign, they suffered the “Midnight Hammer.”'
At the same time, off the coast of Virginia, the exercise plan for the USS George H.W. Bush has been notified to be compressed. Three anonymous Pentagon officials disclosed to the media: the second strike group could reach the Middle East within two weeks.
This is not conventional deterrence. This is a military countdown laid out on the table. And while diplomats are still squabbling over the next round of negotiation locations, global capital has already voted with its feet—every jagged drop after gold broke through $5,100, and every wail from 430,000 accounts liquidated when Bitcoin fell below $60,000, all answer the same question: How many assets will be dragged into this 'negotiation that cannot be negotiated' between the U.S. and Iran?
At the same time, off the coast of Virginia, the exercise plan for the USS George H.W. Bush has been notified to be compressed. Three anonymous Pentagon officials disclosed to the media: the second strike group could reach the Middle East within two weeks.
This is not conventional deterrence. This is a military countdown laid out on the table. And while diplomats are still squabbling over the next round of negotiation locations, global capital has already voted with its feet—every jagged drop after gold broke through $5,100, and every wail from 430,000 accounts liquidated when Bitcoin fell below $60,000, all answer the same question: How many assets will be dragged into this 'negotiation that cannot be negotiated' between the U.S. and Iran?
4 PM, AiCoin Alpha Operation Live: Say Goodbye to the 'Violent Harvesting' Era: Binance Alpha Box Opens 'Digital Credit' Game (Send Red Envelopes)
This afternoon at 16:00 (UTC+8), AiCoin Alpha operation will start from BN DEX introduction in 【 AiCoin - Group Chat - Live】, where we will discuss a new game of 'digital credit' led by BN. In the capital competition, the early 'violent harvesting' actions once sparked market discussions, and the intense arbitrage mode of 'harvesting parties' amazed people with the limitless opportunities while also feeling the unhealthiness of the ecosystem. However, Binance, through the early layout of Alpha Box and BN DEX, is taking practical actions to open a new game field filled with the logic of 'digital credit'. Are you ready to embrace such challenges and opportunities? You are welcome to make an appointment to watch~
The hotter the job market, the more urgent the call for rate cuts, the more crypto falls? What is the market betting on?
The same 'outstanding' non-farm employment report is seen by traders as irrefutable evidence for delaying interest rate cuts, while for Trump, it is a rallying cry that 'America is strong, so interest rates must be at their lowest.' And caught in the middle, the Federal Reserve is staging a performance of a departing governor's 'lonely opposition' to colleagues.
Washington time February 11, the non-farm payroll data for January showed an increase of 130,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. Logically, an overheated economy should dampen expectations for interest rate cuts. However, the conclusion given by the White House is exactly the opposite: precisely because the data is good, the interest rate cuts should accelerate.
This is not a divergence in economics, but a reflection of the misalignment between the power cycle and the policy cycle. Meanwhile, across the ocean, Bitcoin provided a deeply meaningful reaction — a collapse followed by a surge, completing a full long-short trap within 24 hours.
Washington time February 11, the non-farm payroll data for January showed an increase of 130,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. Logically, an overheated economy should dampen expectations for interest rate cuts. However, the conclusion given by the White House is exactly the opposite: precisely because the data is good, the interest rate cuts should accelerate.
This is not a divergence in economics, but a reflection of the misalignment between the power cycle and the policy cycle. Meanwhile, across the ocean, Bitcoin provided a deeply meaningful reaction — a collapse followed by a surge, completing a full long-short trap within 24 hours.
AiCoin Daily Report (February 12)
1. The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 130,000 in January, exceeding expectations
The U.S. released non-farm data for January, with employment increasing by 130,000, exceeding the expected 70,000; the unemployment rate recorded at 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4%. -Original
2. BlockFills suspends withdrawals and restricts trading, with a trading volume of $60 billion last year
According to multiple reports, the institutional cryptocurrency trading platform BlockFills has suspended withdrawals and restricted trading. BlockFills processed $60 billion in trading volume last year, a piece of news that reminds people of the sluggish period in the cryptocurrency market in 2022 when several platforms suspended withdrawals due to market crashes. -Original
The U.S. released non-farm data for January, with employment increasing by 130,000, exceeding the expected 70,000; the unemployment rate recorded at 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4%. -Original
2. BlockFills suspends withdrawals and restricts trading, with a trading volume of $60 billion last year
According to multiple reports, the institutional cryptocurrency trading platform BlockFills has suspended withdrawals and restricted trading. BlockFills processed $60 billion in trading volume last year, a piece of news that reminds people of the sluggish period in the cryptocurrency market in 2022 when several platforms suspended withdrawals due to market crashes. -Original
The Mystery of Bitcoin's Plunge: Dual Pressure from Macroeconomic Policy and High Leverage Triggering Market Volatility
📌 Event Review
Recently, the Bitcoin market has experienced a round of severe fluctuations. After the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data in January, the market began to face pressures from rising funding costs and tightening liquidity, while some institutions faced huge risks with their long positions using high leverage. Data showed that from 22:30 to 23:10, the Bitcoin price rapidly dropped from a high position, triggering a chain liquidation effect, leading to a significant increase in market panic. Although there was a slight rebound in price at 23:40, the overall震荡 pattern remained evident.
⏰ Timeline
22:03: The U.S. January non-farm payroll data was released, with new jobs far exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, resulting in a significant decrease in market expectations for an early interest rate cut (the probability of a rate cut in April fell from about 40% to 20%). Funding costs and liquidity expectations are tightening.
Recently, the Bitcoin market has experienced a round of severe fluctuations. After the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data in January, the market began to face pressures from rising funding costs and tightening liquidity, while some institutions faced huge risks with their long positions using high leverage. Data showed that from 22:30 to 23:10, the Bitcoin price rapidly dropped from a high position, triggering a chain liquidation effect, leading to a significant increase in market panic. Although there was a slight rebound in price at 23:40, the overall震荡 pattern remained evident.
⏰ Timeline
22:03: The U.S. January non-farm payroll data was released, with new jobs far exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, resulting in a significant decrease in market expectations for an early interest rate cut (the probability of a rate cut in April fell from about 40% to 20%). Funding costs and liquidity expectations are tightening.
ETH Market Volatility: In-Depth Analysis Behind the Sharp Rise and Correction
Event Review 🚀
Recently, the ETH market has experienced significant volatility. After the release of the U.S. non-farm employment data for January, market sentiment was notably affected, with some funds shifting from traditional risk assets to crypto assets. Shortly after the data was released, the price of ETH rapidly surged from approximately $1958 to $2014 in just 11 minutes, an increase of 2.83%. Subsequently, after a brief sustained rebound, the market experienced profit-taking, and the price ultimately retraced to $1963.6, indicating signs of consolidation at high levels. Meanwhile, institutional funds' opportunistic positioning and on-chain fund flow analysis have added complexity to this market trend.
Recently, the ETH market has experienced significant volatility. After the release of the U.S. non-farm employment data for January, market sentiment was notably affected, with some funds shifting from traditional risk assets to crypto assets. Shortly after the data was released, the price of ETH rapidly surged from approximately $1958 to $2014 in just 11 minutes, an increase of 2.83%. Subsequently, after a brief sustained rebound, the market experienced profit-taking, and the price ultimately retraced to $1963.6, indicating signs of consolidation at high levels. Meanwhile, institutional funds' opportunistic positioning and on-chain fund flow analysis have added complexity to this market trend.
Is the Alpha blind box debut a 'blessing' or a 'trap'? ESP profits shrink by 70%, and the recovery god coin PIEVERSE collects on time!
1️⃣ Today's Highlight: Alpha Box blind box experiment (expected 16:00 - 18:00)
Today marks the 'Day of Reform' in Alpha's history.
Rules: Consume 15 points to exchange for a box.
Game Point: The blind box contains a mix of new and old coins. If you draw a high-value new coin, everyone will be happy; but if the points you've worked hard to accumulate can only be exchanged for a 'micro hair' worth 10-20U, your friends will probably be furious.
Survival Guide: The threshold every 5 minutes
Reduce by 5 points. High-scoring players are advised to lock in their positions first; the current market situation is 'more monks than meat', only those who grab it have a chance of survival.
Today marks the 'Day of Reform' in Alpha's history.
Rules: Consume 15 points to exchange for a box.
Game Point: The blind box contains a mix of new and old coins. If you draw a high-value new coin, everyone will be happy; but if the points you've worked hard to accumulate can only be exchanged for a 'micro hair' worth 10-20U, your friends will probably be furious.
Survival Guide: The threshold every 5 minutes
Reduce by 5 points. High-scoring players are advised to lock in their positions first; the current market situation is 'more monks than meat', only those who grab it have a chance of survival.
Alpha Box blind box mechanism fully analyzed: 15 points for surprises, launching tomorrow (February 11)!
Binance Wallet officially launches a brand new airdrop model - Alpha Box. In simple terms, this is the 'random gift package' of the airdrop world, bundling multiple projects in one go.
Core gameplay:
Points required: Participating in a single event will consume 15 Alpha points.
Random rewards: Consume points to exchange for an Alpha Box, which randomly provides equivalent tokens from one of the partner projects upon opening.
Project return: The blind box not only contains new projects but may also include projects that have previously appeared on Alpha, giving users who missed early airdrops a second chance.
Key competition mechanism (downgrade every 5 minutes):
Core gameplay:
Points required: Participating in a single event will consume 15 Alpha points.
Random rewards: Consume points to exchange for an Alpha Box, which randomly provides equivalent tokens from one of the partner projects upon opening.
Project return: The blind box not only contains new projects but may also include projects that have previously appeared on Alpha, giving users who missed early airdrops a second chance.
Key competition mechanism (downgrade every 5 minutes):
Central Bank RWA Regulatory Framework Officially Established: Strict Control in Mainland, Leading in Hong Kong!
In early February, China's financial market welcomed a far-reaching regulatory transformation. The People's Bank of China and eight other departments jointly issued a notice (on further preventing and handling risks related to virtual currencies, etc.) (i.e., 'Document No. 42'), while abolishing the old regulations from 2021.
On the same day, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued guidelines (hereinafter referred to as the 'Guidelines') on the supervision of asset-backed securities tokens issued offshore from domestic assets. This series of documents for the first time constructed a systematic regulatory framework for 'Real World Asset Tokenization' (RWA), marking a new stage in China's regulation of digital assets from 'comprehensive prohibition' to 'precise control and a combination of regulation and facilitation'.
On the same day, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued guidelines (hereinafter referred to as the 'Guidelines') on the supervision of asset-backed securities tokens issued offshore from domestic assets. This series of documents for the first time constructed a systematic regulatory framework for 'Real World Asset Tokenization' (RWA), marking a new stage in China's regulation of digital assets from 'comprehensive prohibition' to 'precise control and a combination of regulation and facilitation'.
3 PM, AiCoin NPC Live: 【OKX Special】 A Beginner's Perspective Critically Reviewing OKX's Event (Membership Giveaway)
This afternoon at 15:00 (UTC+8), AiCoin NPC will be live in 【 AiCoin - Group Chat - Live】, providing a pure beginner's perspective to critically review the recent trending OKX event — which genuine benefits are explosive, which are just tricks, which beginners can dive into, and which are just for observation. This is not only a user-friendly guide tailored for beginners but also a fantastic opportunity to help you quickly master trading rhythms and understand industry dynamics. The ever-changing market always brings potential opportunities, and we will teach you step by step how to leverage OKX's event advantages to find entry points that align with your investment style. You are welcome to make an appointment to watch~
Tonight's Non-Farm Payroll, the $70,000 battle for Bitcoin!
Market expectations are for an increase of only 70,000 jobs tonight, but the real eye of the storm is that benchmark revision report that could erase nearly a million historical jobs. Tonight at 21:30, the delayed release of the U.S. January non-farm payroll report will unveil itself. This data release has been referred to by U.S. bank analysts as the 'Super Bowl of employment reports', not only because it will reveal the employment situation for the first full month of 2026 but also because it includes a comprehensive reassessment of employment data from the past year.
The market generally expects around 70,000 new jobs in January, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%. However, the real focus of the market is the annual benchmark revision, with preliminary estimates suggesting a downward adjustment of approximately 911,000 jobs for the one-year employment data ending March 2025.
The market generally expects around 70,000 new jobs in January, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%. However, the real focus of the market is the annual benchmark revision, with preliminary estimates suggesting a downward adjustment of approximately 911,000 jobs for the one-year employment data ending March 2025.
AiCoin Daily Report (February 11)
1. BlackRock deposited 3401.98 BTC and 30215.6 ETH into Coinbase
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, BlackRock deposited 3401.98 BTC (approximately $234.28 million) and 30215.6 ETH (approximately $60.82 million) into the Coinbase Prime address. -Original text
2. The European Union proposed a comprehensive ban on cryptocurrency trading with Russia
On February 10, according to the Financial Times, the European Union proposed a comprehensive ban on all cryptocurrency trading with Russia to prevent sanctions evasion. -Original text
3. Spot gold broke through $5040 per ounce, up 0.26% during the day
4. The People's Bank of China released a report, continuing to implement an accommodative monetary policy
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, BlackRock deposited 3401.98 BTC (approximately $234.28 million) and 30215.6 ETH (approximately $60.82 million) into the Coinbase Prime address. -Original text
2. The European Union proposed a comprehensive ban on cryptocurrency trading with Russia
On February 10, according to the Financial Times, the European Union proposed a comprehensive ban on all cryptocurrency trading with Russia to prevent sanctions evasion. -Original text
3. Spot gold broke through $5040 per ounce, up 0.26% during the day
4. The People's Bank of China released a report, continuing to implement an accommodative monetary policy
ESP purchase explodes tonight! Weekly raid airdrop BN vertical takeoff, Alpha explosion eve: Is 100U profit secure?
1️⃣ Main event: Espresso (ESP) 6th Prime Sale
This is the top priority for all Alpha players tonight, don't forget the time!
Purchase window: Tonight 20:00 - 22:00 (only 2 hours)
Threshold preparation: At least 3 BNB must be stored in the account
Access requirements: Must reach the points threshold (expected around 230 points), insufficient points will lead to direct rejection.
Expected returns: The market generally expects a 'guaranteed' profit of around 100U. Although it's not a fortune, isn't it nice to have a steady hot pot in this market?
2️⃣ Misty raid: This week's 30U 'old coin' airdrop?
This is the top priority for all Alpha players tonight, don't forget the time!
Purchase window: Tonight 20:00 - 22:00 (only 2 hours)
Threshold preparation: At least 3 BNB must be stored in the account
Access requirements: Must reach the points threshold (expected around 230 points), insufficient points will lead to direct rejection.
Expected returns: The market generally expects a 'guaranteed' profit of around 100U. Although it's not a fortune, isn't it nice to have a steady hot pot in this market?
2️⃣ Misty raid: This week's 30U 'old coin' airdrop?
Non-Farm Data: Three Dimensions to Interpret the Deep Signals of the Employment Report
On February 11 (Wednesday) at 21:30 (Singapore time), the U.S. Labor Department will release the January non-farm employment report. This delayed data has been given far more attention than usual. Market analysts generally believe that this report is not only a key 'check-up' on the health of the U.S. labor market but may also become a decisive variable in reshaping market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.
1. Expectation Game After the Data Vacuum Period
Under normal circumstances, the non-farm report is a fixed market schedule at the beginning of each month. However, the delayed release of January data this year has created a rare information vacuum period. During this time, the market could only rely on 'high-frequency but non-deterministic' data such as ADP private employment and initial jobless claims to speculate, leading to a buildup of uncertainty.
1. Expectation Game After the Data Vacuum Period
Under normal circumstances, the non-farm report is a fixed market schedule at the beginning of each month. However, the delayed release of January data this year has created a rare information vacuum period. During this time, the market could only rely on 'high-frequency but non-deterministic' data such as ADP private employment and initial jobless claims to speculate, leading to a buildup of uncertainty.
Here are a few points worth noting in the AiCoin contract radar screenshot:
1. BTC bulls suddenly gained momentum, with a positive change in positions over 5 minutes, which is a rare strong bullish signal recently.
2. The meme coin PIPPIN saw a significant increase in bullish positions by +3.7, along with a price increase of +0.21%, indicating funds are rushing in.
3. DRIFT +2.1, XAG +1.9, with a noticeable influx of capital back into the DeFi and AI narrative sectors.
4. Conversely, FIL, XRP, and SOL experienced a reduction in positions of -2% to -8%, suggesting that bears are reducing or shifting positions, cautioning against potential pullback risks.
The greatest advantage of the AiCoin contract radar is its dual filtering of "time dimension" + "position changes":
· 1-minute/5-minute ultra-short-term fluctuation alerts.
· Sorted by change value, directly capturing the coins with the strongest capital flow.
· Position budget alerts (I set it to 30 million), providing a clear view of large fund movements.
I strongly recommend that contract/spot quantitative players bookmark this interface; it truly allows you to see battlefield changes that others cannot anticipate.
1. BTC bulls suddenly gained momentum, with a positive change in positions over 5 minutes, which is a rare strong bullish signal recently.
2. The meme coin PIPPIN saw a significant increase in bullish positions by +3.7, along with a price increase of +0.21%, indicating funds are rushing in.
3. DRIFT +2.1, XAG +1.9, with a noticeable influx of capital back into the DeFi and AI narrative sectors.
4. Conversely, FIL, XRP, and SOL experienced a reduction in positions of -2% to -8%, suggesting that bears are reducing or shifting positions, cautioning against potential pullback risks.
The greatest advantage of the AiCoin contract radar is its dual filtering of "time dimension" + "position changes":
· 1-minute/5-minute ultra-short-term fluctuation alerts.
· Sorted by change value, directly capturing the coins with the strongest capital flow.
· Position budget alerts (I set it to 30 million), providing a clear view of large fund movements.
I strongly recommend that contract/spot quantitative players bookmark this interface; it truly allows you to see battlefield changes that others cannot anticipate.
White House Cryptocurrency Meeting: The Deposit Battle Between Traditional Banks and Crypto Newcomers
Senior policy personnel from Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo will sit face-to-face with representatives from the cryptocurrency industry at the White House. This negotiation surrounding stablecoin yields could determine the competitive landscape of the future U.S. financial system.
Washington insiders reveal that the White House will hold the second round of closed-door cryptocurrency meetings next week, with the core agenda focused on the regulation of stablecoin yields.
Unlike in the past, this meeting will for the first time invite senior policy personnel from several major banks, including Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo.
Washington insiders reveal that the White House will hold the second round of closed-door cryptocurrency meetings next week, with the core agenda focused on the regulation of stablecoin yields.
Unlike in the past, this meeting will for the first time invite senior policy personnel from several major banks, including Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo.
The Night Before the ETH Storm: Severe Fluctuations Under Technical Triggers and Macro Tests
Event Review 📉
Recently, ETH experienced severe fluctuations in trading, with the price suddenly dropping from $2039 to $1997, a decline of over 2%. This series of movements was mainly due to the breach of technical support levels and the triggering of stop-losses by institutional positions, leading to an automatic sell-off chain reaction in the market. Meanwhile, the uncertainty surrounding macro policies and ongoing regulatory scrutiny has also shaken investor confidence, further intensifying risk-averse sentiment.
Timeline ⏱️
14:40
ETH price hovers around $2039, at which point indicators such as the lower Bollinger Band and MVRV Z-Score show that the market is entering the 'surrender zone', with automatic stop-losses triggered and institutional positions forced to liquidate.
Recently, ETH experienced severe fluctuations in trading, with the price suddenly dropping from $2039 to $1997, a decline of over 2%. This series of movements was mainly due to the breach of technical support levels and the triggering of stop-losses by institutional positions, leading to an automatic sell-off chain reaction in the market. Meanwhile, the uncertainty surrounding macro policies and ongoing regulatory scrutiny has also shaken investor confidence, further intensifying risk-averse sentiment.
Timeline ⏱️
14:40
ETH price hovers around $2039, at which point indicators such as the lower Bollinger Band and MVRV Z-Score show that the market is entering the 'surrender zone', with automatic stop-losses triggered and institutional positions forced to liquidate.
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