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The difference in futures basis between CME and Deribit reflects varying risk appetite across regions.
A divergence in global bitcoin BTC$68,994.93market sentiment is widening as U.S. institutional investors hold steady while offshore traders retreat from their positions.
The gap is clearest in futures markets. CME, the go-to platform for hedge funds and institutional desks in the U.S., shows traders are still paying a premium to stay long on bitcoin, according to NYDIG’s head of research, Greg Cipolaro.
This is evident on a one-month annualized basis, essentially the markup for futures over spot prices, which remains higher than on its offshore counterpart, Deribit.
“The more pronounced drop in offshore basis suggests reduced appetite for leveraged long exposure,” Cipolaro wrote. “The widening spread between CME and Deribit basis functions as a real-time gauge of geographical risk appetite.”
Bitcoin earlier this month fell to $60,000 before rebounding. Some pinned the selloff on rising concerns that quantum computing will undermine the system's cryptographic security. NYDIG found that the numbers don’t back up that explanation.
For one, bitcoin’s performance has closely tracked that of publicly traded quantum-computing companies like IONQ Inc. (IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS). If quantum risk were truly weighing on crypto, those stocks would be rising while bitcoin falls.
Instead, they dropped together, pointing to a broader decline in appetite for long-term, future-driven assets. On top of that, search data on Google Trends shows interest for “quantum computing bitcoin” rises when the price of BTC rises.

Speculația rampantă pe platformele de derivate crypto alimentează volatilitatea și riscă imaginea bitcoin-ului ca o acoperire stabilă, spune șeful activelor digitale de la BlackRock.

NEW YORK — Deși ETF-ul Bitcoin (IBIT) al iShares de la BlackRock este printre cele mai de succes lansări de produse din istoria Wall Street-ului, dependența tot mai mare a pieței crypto de levier ar putea provoca daune pe termen lung atractivității instituționale a bitcoin-ului BTC$68,938.58, conform lui Robert Mitchnick, șeful activelor digitale de la BlackRock.
În timpul unei conversații cu Anthony Pompliano și investitorul Dan Tapiero la conferința Bitcoin Investor Week din New York, joi, Mitchnick a spus că, deși fundamentele bitcoin-ului rămân puternice, speculația excesivă - în special pe platformele de derivate cu levier - introduce instabilitate care amenință poziționarea activului ca o acoperire serioasă pentru portofoliu.

În data de 15 februarie, piața globală va intra într-o săptămână „de furtă de date”. Fed va publica procesul-verbal al întâlnirii de politică monetară din luna ianuarie joi la ora 03:00 (ora Vietnamului), piața va căuta indicii suplimentare cu privire la traiectoria reducerii ratelor dobânzii în anul 2026; datele preliminare ale PIB-ului pentru trimestrul 4 din SUA și indicele prețurilor PCE de bază vor fi publicate vineri la ora 21:30 și vor deveni centrul atenției. Fiind indicele de inflație preferat de Fed, dacă PCE este mai mare decât se aștepta, ar putea afecta ritmul de relaxare a politicii în acest an.

As a first-year computer science student in Hanoi, Hoang Le started trading crypto from his university dorm room, egged on by his gamer friends who were making a killing.
At one point his digital holdings swelled to $200,000 -- around 50 times the average annual income in Vietnam.
But they crashed to zero when the bottom fell out of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in recent months.
Getting wiped out "hurt a lot", he told AFP, but he also learned a valuable lesson: he has come to think of the losses as "tuition fees".
"When profits were high, everyone became greedy," said Le, now 23, adding that "it was too good to be true".
Unlike neighbouring China which has banned cryptocurrencies outright, communist Vietnam has allowed blockchain technology to develop in a legal grey area -- barring its use for payments but letting people speculate unimpeded.
As a result the young-and-upwardly mobile country of 100 million has been at the forefront of crypto adoption, with an estimated 17 million people owning digital assets.
Only India, the United States and Pakistan have seen more widespread usage, according to a 2025 ranking by the consultancy Chainalysis.
But what once looked like first-mover advantage increasingly looks like a liability as investors stare down a crypto winter.
The price of bitcoin has almost halved since hitting a record high above $126,000 in October, and other digital tokens have slid even further.
Vietnamese crypto startups hawking everything from NFTs to blockchain-based lending and trading services have been hammered, with bankruptcies and layoffs roiling the industry.
"Many companies have shut down because of this crisis," said Tran Xuan Tien, head of Ho Chi Minh City's blockchain association.
He added that others are "downsizing and conserving capital to extend their runway".
Nguyen The Vinh, co-founder of blockchain firm Ninety Eight, told AFP his company has laid off nearly one-third of its staff since last year.
There was more "restructuring" to come, he added, given the gloomy outlook.

"The market will likely remain difficult for years, not just months, so we need backup plans."
Until recently, Vietnam's crypto scene was a wild west, with highly speculative ventures and outright Ponzi schemes flourishing alongside startups offering legitimate products.
The government warned about the dangers of crypto and broke up several huge scam operations, including one that allegedly swindled nearly $400 million from thousands of investors.
But it did not move to crush the industry as Beijing did, instead opening "a window for domestic businesses to experiment", according to Tien.
Under top leader To Lam, who has pursued sweeping growth-oriented reforms, Vietnam has formally embraced the blockchain industry and is gradually asserting control over the estimated $100 billion market.
Last year it passed a law recognising digital currencies, bringing them under a regulatory framework for the first time.
It came into effect last month but investors have questions about how it will be implemented.
Hanoi has also announced a five-year crypto trading pilot programme, which will allow Vietnamese firms to issue digital assets.
But lingering regulatory ambiguity has kept many firms based in the country from formally registering there, opting instead to file paperwork in places such as Singapore and Dubai.
Vinh says some firms are folding and others downsizing or pivoting because of both the "prolonged downturn and an unclear legal framework".
And new entities are struggling to gain traction as investor sentiment sours.

Huu, 24, said fundraising for his crypto-product startup has suddenly become much harder, and asked that only his first name be used for fear of hurting his business.
Foreign investors were once enticed by promises of 400 and 500 percent returns, he said, but were now discovering they "might lose everything".
"Over the past few months, things have gone downhill badly."
Founders including Huu and Vinh said the current downturn is part of a natural business cycle, and stronger firms would eventually emerge offering better products.
But that is cold comfort for the nearly 55 percent of individual Vietnamese crypto investors who according to one market analysis reported losses last year.
In Vietnam, a lot of people trade crypto," Huu said.
"When prices fall, people complain about losses and the overall mood becomes very gloomy."

Despite the price recovery, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in “extreme fear,” indicating underlying market anxiety.

Bitcoin BTC$69,822.71 has clawed its way back above $70,000, recovering from a sharp drop near $60,000 earlier in the month.
The cryptocurrency is up nearly 5% in the last 24-hour period, while the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rose 6.2% in the same period.
The rebound comes as investors react to a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation print and signs of renewed risk appetite. The Consumer Price Index for January rose 2.4% year-over-year, just below the forecasted 2.5%.
That gave markets a reason to believe interest rate cuts could arrive sooner than expected, lifting both stocks and cryptocurrencies. Lower interest rates make risk assets more attractive, as the rate of return on risk-free or low-risk investments lowers.
Traders on prediction market Kalshi are currently weighing a 26% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in April, up from 19% earlier in the week. On Polymarket, the odds rose from 13% to 20%.
Still, the rally masks deeper fractures beneath the surface.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to reflect in deep anxiety, hovering near extreme fear levels last seen during the 2022 bear market over the collapse of FTX. The index has been sitting in “extreme fear” since the beginning of the month.
Bitwise analysts noted that $8.7 billion in bitcoin losses were realized in the last week, second only to the fallout from the 3AC collapse.
“Nevertheless, the rotation of supply from weaker hands to conviction investors has historically been associated with market stabilisation phases, though such redistribution requires time to fully unfold,” Bitwise wrote.
Bitcoin treasury firms were sitting on over $21 billion of unrealized losses, an all-time high. Bitcoin’s recovery has seen that figure drop to $16.9 billion.
Thinner trading volumes are supporting the current rally during the weekend and seller exhaustion. The $8.7 billion in realized losses in the last week could be seen as a “textbook capitulation event.”
Yet, the extreme fear gripping the market poses a challenge. As Bitwise research analyst Danny Nelson told CoinDesk, the market’s “main driver right now is fear. Fear that we’ll go lower.”
That fear is seeing investors take any coming rally as a chance to sell. Whether that will keep on materializing or the shift to higher-conviction holders will see the market change directions remains to be seen.

Evan Cheng și Stephen Mackintosh au spus că 2025 a marcat un punct de cotitură pentru adoptarea instituțională, cu tokenizarea și comerțul agentic apărând ca următoarea frontieră.

Ce trebuie să știi:
Executivii au menționat fluxurile ETF, creșterea DAT și intrarea unor firme mari de tranzacționare în cripto.
Tokenizarea și decontarea instantanee ar putea estompa linia dintre piețele tradiționale și cele descentralizate.
Designul cu latență redusă și instrumentele compozabile își propun să sprijine cazurile de utilizare financiare conduse de AI și tokenizate.
Interesul instituțional în cripto se accelerează chiar și pe măsură ce piețele fluctuează, conform executivilor Sui la Consensus Hong Kong 2026.