MOHSIN Metlo

🚨 BITCOIN IS REPEATING THE 2017 AND 2021 PATTERN!!!
Look to this chart, $BTC will dump to $35,000 in 10 days.
Are you actually prepared for that scenario?
From my theory, I’ve identified the timing of the next cycle.
I track BTC on two axes.
TIME + PRICE.
Most people only watch price.
That's why they every time MISS the best entries.
First, the TIME axis.
Days from ATH to cycle low after each halving:
- 2012: 406 days
- 2016: 363 days
- 2020: 376 days
- 2024: still pending
These numbers are close.
So if this cycle lines up, the highest probability window for the next real bottom is Oct to Nov 2026.
That is my time target.
And when that window hits, I buy no matter what price looks like.
Because time is how you don't get front run.
Now the PRICE axis.
I've already started buying since we entered the $60,000 zone.
Even if the time window hasn't hit yet.
Why?
Because waiting for the perfect level is how you miss the whole move.
Retail says "I'll only buy at X price".
But if price never hits it, you're left behind.
So my approach is simple.
If price gives value, I start buying.
If time hits the historical window, I buy regardless.
That one framework explains everything.
Back in October, when BTC was around $114,000, I said I'd be a strong buyer in the $60,000 range.
People laughed.
They said BTC would never see $60K again.
I don't argue with noise.
I stick to the plan.
Now we've hit that zone, and the price call played out.
But the risk of a lower low is still real.
That's why the TIME axis matters.
My plan:
1) TIME axis
Oct to Nov 2026 is a strong BUY, regardless of price.
2) PRICE axis
Below $60,000 is a strong BUY, regardless of time.
If either one hits, I execute daily buys of $500,000.
And there's one more thing I watch.
NUPL - Net Unrealized Profit/Loss.
The onchain indicator that historically flags the real cycle bottom.
- 2018
- COVID crash
- 2022
It caught all of them.
Right now, we're not in that blue zone yet.
We're still far from it.
So I wouldn't be surprised to see BTC in the $45K to $50K zone by end of 2026.
That's my ultimate bottom target, where I'd feel good going heavy.
The market is messy right now, but this phase will pass.
I've studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on.
I'll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.$BTC
$ETH #CZAMAonBinanceSquare

One of the most expensive lessons I learned as a trader was confusing real breakouts with fakeouts. Early on, I treated every move above resistance or below support like the move, only to get trapped, stopped out, and watch price reverse without me. Over time, it became clear: getting this distinction right is everything, whether you trade crypto, stocks, forex, or futures.
What Is a Real Breakout?
A real (true) breakout happens when price decisively moves beyond a key level, support, resistance, trendline, range high/low, or a pattern boundary and stays there. It reflects a genuine shift in supply and demand, where one side clearly takes control.
Real breakouts usually come with:
• Strong momentum
• Follow-through in the same direction
• Expanding volatility
When they work, they often lead to trend continuation or even a full reversal.
What Is a Fakeout (False Breakout)?
A fakeout is when price briefly pierces a key level, triggers stops and breakout entries, and then quickly reverses back into the range (or the opposite direction). There’s no real conviction behind the move.
Fakeouts are common because:
• Markets hunt liquidity (stop-losses sit above resistance and below support)
• Large players fade weak, obvious moves
• Impatient traders enter too early
Personally, once I stopped seeing fakeouts as “bad luck” and started seeing them as how the market actually works, my trading improved a lot.
Real Breakout vs Fakeout - What Actually Matters
•Volume
Real breakout: Clear volume expansion (often well above average)
Fakeout: Flat or declining volume, no urgency
•Price Action
Real breakout: Strong candles, large bodies, small wicks, clean close beyond the level
Fakeout: Long wicks, indecision candles, rejection back inside the range
•Follow-Through
Real breakout: Continues moving in the breakout direction
Fakeout: Reverses quickly, sometimes within the same session
•Retest Behavior
Real breakout: Pulls back to retest the level and holds
Fakeout: Fails the retest or never holds above/below the level
•Market Context
Real breakout: Aligns with higher timeframe trend or a clear catalyst
Fakeout: Happens in choppy, low-volatility, or counter-trend conditions
How I Filter Breakouts in Practice
The biggest change for me was not entering on the first touch. I wait for confirmation.
Here’s my simple checklist:
• Volume: No spike = high fakeout risk
• Candle close: I want a strong close, not just a wick
• Retest: If it can’t hold the level, I’m not interested
• Context: Does this align with the higher timeframe or a real catalyst?
I also avoid obvious trap zones, tight ranges, round numbers, and low-liquidity periods because that’s where fakeouts thrive.
Trading Implications
• Aggressive traders: Enter on the breakout after strong volume and a clean close
• Conservative traders: Wait for the retest to hold (safer, cleaner entries)
• Fade traders: Intentionally trade fakeouts by fading weak breakouts with rejection and no volume
Over time, I realized that most losses didn’t come from bad analysis, they came from being early. The market loves to fake out the obvious move before the real one begins.
Patience, confirmation, and context are the edge. If you can master the difference between real breakouts and fakeouts, you eliminate a huge chunk of unnecessary losses and let the best trades actually run.

#USRetailSalesMissForecast

$SOL
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