GEMINI

Right now price is trading between $55K and $79.2K, which looks similar to the structure we saw in early 2022. The market is likely to keep moving sideways within this range as new buyers slowly accumulate supply. A real shift would need something big, either a strong move back above $79.2K to confirm renewed strength or a major shock that pushes price below $55K. Without a strong catalyst, consolidation inside this range is the most probable path in the mid term.

O undă bruscă de volatilitate a trecut prin piața cripto în ultimele 24 de ore, conducând la 104.633 de lichidări ale traderilor și pierderi totale de 319,28 milioane de dolari. Cea mai mare lichidare unică a avut loc pe Binance, unde o poziție de #SOL/USDT în valoare de 4,21 milioane de dolari a fost închisă.

SMA #Bitcoin baza 7D este din nou neutră după ce premium-ul futures a scăzut. Aceasta înseamnă că cererea de long cu levier s-a slăbit și traderii își reduc riscul. Piața nu mai preconizează o mișcare agresivă de risc. Derivatele nu împing prețul mai sus în acest moment. Pentru ca taurile să preia din nou controlul, este nevoie de o cerere mai puternică pe piață. Fără o cerere reală pe piață, impulsul ascendent va rămâne probabil limitat.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Dealers are short gamma between 58k and 74k, with the largest concentration around 63k. In this setup, their hedging activity tends to amplify moves rather than absorb them. If price rises they have to buy more and if it falls they have to sell more, which reinforces the direction. That makes the market more sensitive to breakouts, especially on the downside and increases the chance of sharp, fast reactions once key levels break.

The market is currently pulling back but the long term structure is still holding firm. The LTH Cost Basis continues to rise and is now around $38.2K, showing that long term holders are accumulating at higher levels. At the same time, the Realized Price is trending down near $55.0K.

If this pattern continues, both metrics are likely to compress into a key support corridor between $43K and $51K within the next quarter. That range could become a critical decision zone for the market’s next major move.

Selling pressure on Coinbase continues to hold. The Coinbase Premium Gap has stayed negative for its longest stretch since November 2024, showing that sellers are still dominating and demand remains weak on the platform.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

As #Bitcoin continues its correction, volatility is rising due to ongoing macro uncertainty, incomplete economic data after the shutdown and geopolitical tensions putting pressure on the market. The situation is made worse by high leverage in the derivatives market, where liquidations trigger chain reactions that intensify price movements.

Since late summer, volatility has been trending higher, with a major spike during the large liquidation event on October 10, and further elevated swings seen in November, late January, and early February. Overall, the market remains fragile, with sharp movements likely to continue.

With unrealized profits shrinking across the board, #Bitcoin’s NUPL is now sitting near 0.18, firmly in the Hope/Fear zone. That tells us most holders are not deeply in profit, which makes the market more sensitive to every move. In this kind of phase, upside attempts often struggle. Even small rallies can attract sellers who prefer to lock in limited gains rather than wait for a bigger breakout.

At the same time, if price starts slipping, hesitation can quickly turn into broader selling as confidence fades. It’s usually a reactive environment where follow through is limited and sentiment shifts fast. Careful positioning and patience tend to matter more than aggressive entries when conviction is this thin.

For most of the past three months, both #Bitcoin and #Ethereum spot ETFs have been seeing steady outflows, with the 30 day #SMA of net flows staying in negative territory. Instead of fresh capital coming in, funds have generally been moving out. There hasn’t been any consistent shift toward positive inflows that would signal renewed confidence from investors.

Activity levels suggest that large players are either staying on the sidelines or trimming their positions. Unless this trend flips and we start seeing sustained inflows over several weeks, it’s hard to say that meaningful demand has returned to the market.

#Bitcoin mining difficulty just dropped 11.16%, the biggest decline since the July 2021 China mining ban. It’s now the 10th largest negative adjustment in Bitcoin’s history. This indicates a noticeable drop in hash rate, meaning some miners likely went offline. The network is simply recalibrating to keep block times stable.

Există o expunere lungă puternică în acest interval. O împingere puternică în jos ar putea declanșa o cascadă de lichidare în valoare de miliarde. În acest moment, presiunea pe partea de jos rămâne dominantă.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Since the drop below $80K, the 30 day #SMA has slowly increased to 3.2%. That steady rise suggests bigger players are accumulating gradually.

A similar pattern appeared in early 2022, when whales built positions in phases before the next bull run. If this trend continues, it could mean large entities are positioning quietly again.

The #Bitcoin market is absorbing a huge amount of pain right now, with the 7 day moving average of realized losses reaching $2.3 billion, a level seen only once before during the Luna crash in June 2022. Back then, Bitcoin was around $19K and the market was going through a full systemic collapse with forced liquidations and broken confidence across the board.

Today, Bitcoin is trading near $67K, and this move is happening after an all time high, making it a correction rather than a collapse. The losses look similar on paper, but the reason behind them is very different, driven by profit taking, short term fear, and leverage reset instead of structural failure. Context like this changes how these numbers should be understood.

Lichiditatea pieței continuă să arate semne de stres, pe măsură ce raportul Profit/Pierdere Realizat (90D SMA) tinde să scadă, fiind în prezent în jur de 1.32 și apropiindu-se de nivelul crucial de 1. Această scădere treptată evidențiază un dezechilibru în realizarea profitului și absorbția pierderilor. Când acest indicator a scăzut în mod sustenabil sub 1 în ciclurile anterioare, de obicei a fost asociat cu perioade de capitulare generalizată, în care pierderile realizate domină activitatea de pe piață. Aceste faze reflectă adesea stres crescut, apetit redus pentru risc și o poziționare defensivă extinsă.

Dacă raportul continuă să se comprime către sau sub acest prag, ar sugera că presiunea de vânzare rămâne nerezolvată. Istoric, astfel de condiții au tendința de a precede fie o volatilitate crescută, fie etapele timpurii ale unui proces de stabilizare a pieței, în funcție de lichiditatea și contextul macroeconomic înconjurător.

Încă frică extremă 👀

EVERY CYCLE COMES UP WITH A NEW SATOSHI CLAIM 🤯🤣

🕵️‍♂️ 2010: Hal Finney
🕵️‍♂️ 2012: Nick Szabo
🕵️‍♂️ 2014: Dorian Nakamoto
🕵️‍♂️ 2016: Craig Wright
🕵️‍♂️ 2018: Adam Back
🕵️‍♂️ 2020: Jack Dorsey
🕵️‍♂️ 2022: Elon Musk
🕵️‍♂️ 2024: Peter Todd
🕵️‍♂️ 2026: Epstein

Who is really behind the Bitcoin’s greatest mystery? 👀

This cycle was defined by relatively shallow drawdowns, assuming the early October all time high marked the conclusion of the latest bull market. Price pullbacks were limited and orderly, closely resembling the structure seen during the 2015-2017 period. Compared to previous cycles, volatility on the downside remained muted, suggesting healthier liquidity conditions and more balanced market participation.