BTC experienced a strong bearish move, followed by a sideways consolidation (range)
Price is currently trading inside a well-defined range
Volume Profile shows a high liquidity / POC zone in the middle of the range
Clear support at 87,700–88,000
Strong resistance at 90,800–91,200
📈 Strategy 1: Range Low Long (High Probability Setup)
Entry
Buy / Long: 87,800 – 88,200
Conditions:
Price holds support
Bullish rejection candle on 2H
Long lower wick / demand reaction
Stop Loss
Below support: ≈ 86,800
Exit immediately if range breaks down
Targets
TP1: 89,500 (Range mid / VWAP area)
TP2: 90,800 – 91,200 (Range high resistance)
Risk–Reward: ~1 : 2.5
➡️ Take partial profits at TP1, let the rest run to TP2
📉 Strategy 2: Range High Short (If Rejection Appears)
Entry
Sell / Short: 90,800 – 91,200
Conditions:
Bearish rejection
Upper wick formation
Weak follow-through volume
Stop Loss
≈ 92,000
Targets
TP1: 89,500
TP2: 88,000
🚀 Strategy 3: Breakout Trade (Momentum Play)
Bullish Breakout
Buy only after a 2H candle close above 91,300
Stop Loss: 90,400
Targets: 93,000 → 95,000
⚠️ Volume expansion is mandatory to confirm the breakout
🧠 Risk Management Notes
Avoid overtrading in a ranging market
Risk only 1–2% per trade
Use tight stops during high-impact news
Cut trades fast on fake breakout
📌 Final Bias
✔️ Range trading is the safest approach right now
✔️ Best setup: Long near range low → Target range high
Bullish Indicators:
Breaking Major Trend Line Resistance: Bitcoin has finally broken a major trend line resistance, which the speaker views as "not a trap move" (0:04).
Golden Fibonacci Ratio & Liquidity Grab: Bitcoin experienced a "beautiful bounce" almost exactly from a major price target, hitting the golden Fibonacci ratio and grabbing liquidity below a recent low (0:16). This combination is highlighted as a "beautiful area of support" (1:33).
Completion of Five-Wave Price Structure: The speaker suggests that a five-wave price structure to the downside has likely completed. Bitcoin breaking a trend line connecting the second and fourth Elliot waves increases the probability of a "significant push towards the upside" (2:05 - 3:05).
Liquidation Heat Map: A larger cluster of liquidations is observed above Bitcoin's recent high at approximately $91,200. The speaker believes Bitcoin may push up to liquidate these "long trades" before potentially moving lower, indicating an initial bullish move (5:42 - 6:14).
CME Gap Fill: Bitcoin is attempting to fill a CME gap at around $89,500. The video states that "90% of all of the CM gaps usually get filled sooner rather than later," increasing the probability of another push to the upside (6:46 - 7:17).
Horizontal Range - Value Area Low Reclaim: Bitcoin has reclaimed the bottom of its horizontal range and is trading exactly at the value area low. Acceptance above this level is considered a bullish indication, suggesting a rotation towards the value area high (11:06 - 11:59).
Bearish Indicators:
Overall Downtrend: Despite the immediate bullish signs, the speaker notes that on higher timeframes (4-hourly, 2-hourly, 1-hourly), Bitcoin is "still moving in a downtrend" based on the exponential moving averages (3:48 - 4:01). This suggests that after an ABC correction to the upside, a "short or sell trade on Bitcoin" might be considered (3:43 - 4:09).
Bearish Divergence on RSI (Minor): A regular bearish divergence is observed on the 4-hour RSI, showing a lower high on Bitcoin's price chart but a higher high on the RSI (13:01 - 13:08). However, the speaker dismisses this as "nothing really significant" because it's only on the RSI and not visible on other indicators like MACD or money flow #vanar $VANRY @Vanar
