Tony Severino — a Chartered Market Technician known for correctly calling Bitcoin’s recent peak — is out with a new, specific bottom call for BTCUSD. Speaking on the Market Talk X Space hosted by Wolf Bitcoin and Wolf Financial, Severino laid out his “official” bear-market target: a maximum drawdown of roughly 72%, which would take Bitcoin down to about $34,000 per coin, and an end to the bear phase around October 2026. How he reached that figure - Severino points to a statistical “linear decay” sequence based on historical Bitcoin bear markets rather than just one indicator. Past drawdowns: the first cycle fell ~94%, 2014 saw ~86%, 2018 ended near ~84%, and the most recent bear market reached ~78% (which included the FTX collapse). A linear decay of those peaks suggests the next max drawdown should land between ~72–74%; his $34K call is a conservative pick on the lower end of that range. - He also notes standard technical support aligns with the zone (for example, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement), but emphasizes the statistical pattern as the primary driver of his thesis. Why Severino’s view matters Severino isn’t an unknown voice. He accurately called the Bitcoin top in early 2025 around the U.S. presidential inauguration — a peak that coincided with BTC’s performance versus gold and marked the start of the BTCUSD bear market. He also forecast a bounce in April 2025 based on a TD buy signal on the weekly chart, and warned of a topping formation when BTC reached roughly $126K in late October. Track record and transparency Severino is notable for aggressive, high-return public trades — including leveraged short positions with reported ROI as high as 13,000% — and for serving as a mentor on Slice App. On Slice he’s claimed the platform’s “best ROI” after a public, unlevered silver trade that returned over 183%. Slice enforces transparency (mentors can’t edit or delete trade posts), so Severino’s trade history is public and verifiable — a factor that bolsters the credibility of his bottom call. Bottom line If Severino’s timeline and math hold, Bitcoin could test the mid-$30K range before the bear market concludes around October 2026. As always, market forecasts are probabilistic and should be weighed alongside your own research and risk management. You can find Severino’s public trades and follow his commentary on Slice App and X. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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