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🔴Major U.S. indices closed the week lower amid heightened volatility. The S&P 500 declined about 2.0% week-over-week, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.9%.

🔴This week’s move was driven by geopolitical tensions involving U.S. combat operations against Iran, surging oil prices, and disappointing economic data.

🔴The U.S. and Israel launched their most aggressive attack ever on Iranian targets last weekend, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran retaliated by launching attacks on 27 bases hosting U.S. troops across the Middle East, hitting airports in the UAE and Kuwait, and firing missile barrages at Israel.

🔴Iranian media reported the Strait of Hormuz was closed, with Iran threatening to fire on any ship attempting to pass. This has seen the price of oil surge to its highest level since 2023, with Brent crude nearing a price of ~$95.

🔴To top it off, February payrolls showed a decline of 92,000 jobs (i.e., employers cut more jobs than they created). This pushed unemployment to 4.4% and reignited stagflation fears.

🔴Despite broader macro volatility, crypto markets showed resilience. Both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) posted net gains on the weekly, with BTC testing $73,000 highs on March 4th/5th before retreating.

🔴Among stocks, energy, defense, agriculture, and commodities thrived while tech, airlines, financials, and software were the week’s big losers.

🔴Trump's 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act is now in effect, with the U.S. Trade Representative noting rates could rise to 15% for some countries. That said, a group of 24 U.S. states have now filed a lawsuit to block the administration's latest tariff package.

🔴As it stands now, geopolitical developments remain the dominant force. Any ceasefire headline could spark a sharp rally, while further escalation or a Strait of Hormuz update from Qatar's energy minister could send oil toward $100 and risk assets sharply lower.

🔴On the scheduled data side, Wednesday's CPI is the pivotal print of the week. A hot reading will cement stagflation fears and further kill rate-cut hopes, while a soft core could be the first genuine piece of good news the market has had in two weeks. Stay tuned.