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Reuters Poll 📊: ECB Expected to Maintain 2% Rate Throughout the Year, Longest Period of Stable Interest Rates Since the Era of Negative Interest Rates

A Reuters poll indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain its deposit rate at 2% until at least the end of 2026—the longest period of stable interest rates since the era of negative interest rates, despite persistently high geopolitical risks 🌍. January's inflation rate fell to 1.7%, a 16-month low 📉, prompting warnings from some policymakers that price growth is slowing too much ⚠️ and urging the ECB to prepare for action. However, the survey shows that 66 out of 74 economists expect the ECB to hold rates steady until at least 2027, an expectation unchanged since last October 📅. If this expectation materializes, the ECB's current period of stable interest rates will be the longest since the end of the pre-pandemic era of negative interest rates. Deutsche Bank economists noted, "The baseline scenario is domestic resilience dominating and external vulnerabilities under control, allowing the ECB to remain on hold. However, frankly speaking, the uncertainty surrounding the monetary policy path is indeed very high."

World Gold Council: January Gold ETF Inflows in China Reach 44 Billion Yuan
The World Gold Council released its "Monthly Review of the Chinese Gold Market." The report indicates that upstream physical gold demand in China remained robust in January: Gold outflows from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) totaled 126 tons, a slight increase of 1 ton year-on-year and 11 tons month-on-month; gold bar sales were strong, and jewelry dealers increased restocking before the Spring Festival, jointly supporting gold demand. January saw inflows of 44 billion yuan (approximately US$6.2 billion, or 38 tons) into Chinese gold ETFs, a record high for the start of the year, with both total assets under management (AUM) and total holdings setting new historical records. In 2026, the People's Bank of China continued to issue gold purchase announcements, increasing its gold reserves by 1.2 tons to 2,308 tons, accounting for 9.6% of its total foreign exchange reserves.

UBS: Fed Rate Cut Path Unchanged but Urgency Reduced

UBS Global Wealth Management noted in a report that although the January non-farm payroll report was stronger than expected, evidence of declining US inflation in the coming months should allow the Fed to maintain its plan for further rate cuts. Chief Investment Officer Mark Heifel stated that the firm's baseline scenario remains a 25 basis point rate cut in June and September, which "will create a favorable environment for stocks, bonds, and gold." Data from the London Stock Exchange shows that after the non-farm payroll data release, the money market lowered its expectation for the Fed's total rate cuts for the year from approximately 60 basis points to approximately 50 basis points, and postponed pricing for the next rate cut from June to July.
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