Bitcoin is currently in a "coiling" phase, rejecting the $70,000 psychological barrier multiple times this month. While some call it a bear turn, the data suggests an orderly deleveraging.

The Macro Drivers

The market is currently digesting the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. His hawkish reputation has strengthened the DXY and put pressure on "risk-on" assets.

  • The 2% Haircut Rule: A massive silver lining emerged on Feb 19, when the SEC issued guidance permitting a 2% haircut for payment stablecoins in broker-dealer net capital. This is a huge institutional green light for stablecoin adoption.

  • Technical Support: BTC is finding strong support at the $65,000 zone. A daily close above $73,700 would invalidate the current bearish symmetrical triangle and signal a move toward new highs.

Strategy: This is a "wait and see" market. Watch for the Global Liquidity Index (GLI) to pivot; if liquidity expands while BTC holds $65k, the Q2 breakout is almost a certainty.

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"Is $65k the floor for BTC, or are we going to $60k?"