Bitcoin’s sharp reversal in early 2026 has rattled bullish momentum, with the cryptocurrency now trading decisively below the $70,000 level.
After reaching a year-to-date high of $97,939 on January 14, the digital asset has fallen 31.5% from that peak and is down 23.3% since the start of the year. The pullback has renewed debate over "when" or "if" bitcoin can reclaim the psychologically significant $100,000 milestone.
The last time bitcoin traded above six figures was November 13, 2025, underscoring how quickly sentiment has shifted.
According to data from prediction market Kalshi, traders are increasingly skeptical of a near-term rebound. Current pricing suggests less than a 50% probability that bitcoin will surpass $100,000 again before the end of 2026, reflecting tempered expectations amid ongoing volatility.
When will bitcoin cross 100K again according to Kalshi data:
40% — Before January 2027
34% — Before October 2026
24% — Before July 2026
17% — Before June 2026
11% — Before May 2026
6% — Before April 2026
2% — Before March 2026
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