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Pasar tenaga kerja AS mencatat peningkatan yang lebih kuat dari yang diperkirakan sebesar 119.000 pekerjaan pada bulan September, meskipun tingkat pengangguran secara tak terduga naik menjadi 4,4%, menurut data pemerintah yang tertunda lama yang dirilis pada hari Kamis.Laporan — yang awalnya dijadwalkan untuk awal Oktober — ditunda enam minggu karena penutupan pemerintah federal, meninggalkan pasar tanpa angka tenaga kerja yang tepat waktu selama periode yang bergejolak.Apa yang Perlu DiketahuiAS menambah 119.000 pekerjaan, melampaui ekspektasi ekonom sebesar 50.000.Tingkat pengangguran naik menjadi 4,4%, di atas perkiraan 4,3%.

Bitcoin Has Not Bottomed Yet

Despite a sharp sell-off earlier this month, onchain data suggests Bitcoin has not yet reached a structural bear market bottom. According to CryptoQuant, multiple key indicators remain inconsistent with historical cycle lows, implying that the bottoming process is still incomplete — and could take months rather than days.

Heavy Losses, But Not Capitulation

One of the clearest warning signals is the scale of realized losses. Bitcoin holders recently realized around $5.4 billion in losses in a single day on February 5, when BTC fell roughly 14% to $62,000. While this marked the largest daily realized loss since March 2023, CryptoQuant notes it is still not extreme enough to signal a definitive market bottom.

For comparison, daily realized losses reached $5.8 billion at previous cycle lows, and losses after the FTX collapse in November 2022 exceeded $4.3 billion. Even with the recent spike, CryptoQuant says the data does not yet reflect full capitulation.

On a longer timeframe, monthly cumulative realized losses remain far below historical bear market bottoms. Current figures sit near 0.3 million BTC, compared with roughly 1.1 million BTC realized at the end of the 2022 bear market.

Valuation Metrics Still Elevated

Several core valuation indicators also remain above traditional capitulation zones. The MVRV ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, has not yet entered the deeply undervalued range that historically marks macro bottoms.

Similarly, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric has not reached the ~20% unrealized loss level seen at prior cycle lows. These metrics suggest that pain has increased, but not to the extent typically required to reset market structure.

Long-Term Holders Are Still Holding

CryptoQuant also highlights the behavior of long-term holders as another sign the bottom is not in. Historically, cycle lows occur when long-term holders capitulate at losses of 30–40%. At present, long-term holders are selling roughly around breakeven.

In addition, around 55% of the Bitcoin supply remains in profit, compared with the 45–50% range that has historically marked deep bear market lows. This indicates that a meaningful portion of the market has yet to experience maximum financial stress.

The $55,000 “Ultimate” Bottom Zone

Based on its models, CryptoQuant estimates Bitcoin’s “ultimate” bear market bottom to be near $55,000, closely aligned with Bitcoin’s realized price — a level that has historically acted as major support during bear markets.

Bitcoin is currently trading more than 25% above its realized price, whereas in prior cycles, price fell 24–30% below realized price before forming a durable bottom. After reaching those levels, Bitcoin typically spent four to six months building a base before a sustained recovery began.

A Process, Not an Event

CryptoQuant’s Bull–Bear Market Cycle Indicator remains in the Bear Phase, not the Extreme Bear Phase that usually signals the start of a bottoming process. This reinforces the idea that bear market bottoms are not single capitulation events, but extended periods of consolidation and exhaustion.

Adding to the cautious outlook, Standard Chartered recently cut its near-term crypto forecast, warning that Bitcoin could still fall toward $50,000 before stabilizing and rebounding later in the year.

Final Take

The data paints a clear picture: while Bitcoin has already endured significant damage, the conditions that historically define a true bear market bottom are not yet fully in place. If past cycles are any guide, the market may still need more time — and more pressure — before a durable bottom is formed.

$BTC