Scientist Kepler

How ‘Undervalued’ Bitcoin Sell-Offs Could Set Up the Next Long-Term Rally
Over the past few months, Bitcoin’s correction has been brutal. After climbing to around $126,000, BTC has dropped to nearly $68,000 at the time of writing. For many traders, that feels like a collapse.
But here’s the twist: sometimes the most painful sell-offs create the strongest foundations for future rallies.
Instead of seeing this phase as purely destructive, on-chain data suggests it could be a market reset the kind that historically comes before major recoveries.
Bitcoin Is Approaching “Undervalued” Territory
One key metric analysts are watching is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, tracked by CryptoQuant.
The MVRV ratio compares:
Market value (current market cap)
Realized value (value of coins at the price they last moved)
When MVRV moves close to 1, it signals that Bitcoin is nearing undervaluation.
Right now, Bitcoin’s MVRV is around 1.1 — close to that critical zone.
Historically, the last four times Bitcoin entered this range:
The market went through a period of accumulation
Selling pressure eventually dried up
A broader rally followed
Important: Undervaluation doesn’t mean the price immediately pumps. Prices can stay low for weeks or even months. But this phase often marks smart money accumulation.

Why Price Could Drop Further Before Recovering
For Bitcoin to enter deeper undervaluation, selling pressure must continue.
And right now, institutions are a big part of that pressure.
According to data from SosoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded four consecutive weeks of net outflows the third time this has happened since launch.
In just two trading sessions, cumulative ETF outflows hit $686.67 million, nearing the $1 billion mark.

That means:
Investors are locking in profits
Some are cutting losses
Demand is temporarily weaker
Spot market data also supports this. According to CoinGlass, demand fell sharply from $1.02 billion to $89.73 million on February 12, with net selling dominating.
If this continues, Bitcoin could dip further pushing MVRV even closer to full undervaluation.
And ironically, that might be exactly what the market needs.

Long-Term Holders Are the Real Key
The most important group right now? Long-term holders.
The Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric also tracked by CryptoQuant shows a reading of 0. That suggests long-term holders are not aggressively selling.
Meanwhile, the ratio of long-term holders (LTH) to short-term holders (STH) has declined, meaning short-term traders are the ones selling harder.
This is a classic cycle dynamic:
Short-term traders panic sell
Long-term holders stay calm
Supply gradually tightens
Price stabilizes
A new uptrend begins
If long-term conviction remains strong while short-term selling exhausts itself, Bitcoin’s current “undervalued” approach could form the base of the next major rally.
What Would Confirm a Recovery?
For Bitcoin to reclaim the $100,000 level, we would likely need:
Stabilizing macroeconomic conditions
Reduced ETF outflows or renewed inflows
Strengthening bullish sentiment
Continued accumulation by long-term holders
If those pieces align while Bitcoin is sitting near undervaluation, history suggests a powerful upside move could follow.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s correction from $126,000 to $68,000 looks painful on the surface. But on-chain metrics like MVRV suggest the asset is nearing levels that have historically preceded major rallies.
Yes, more downside is possible.
But if long-term holders stay strong and selling pressure fades, this “undervalued” phase could be remembered not as the collapse but as the reset before the next expansion cycle.
Sometimes, the rally starts when the fear feels strongest.
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$BTC
$MUBARAK
$TAKE
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#MarketRebound
#CPIWatch
#USNFPBlowout
#TrumpCanadaTariffsOverturned
#USRetailSalesMissForecast

Los números no mienten. $XRP bled 14% hasta febrero, y ese tipo de daño no se cura de la noche a la mañana. Los traders a corto plazo están mirando una posible caída a $1.0 en las próximas una a cuatro semanas, y honestamente, el gráfico está de acuerdo con ellos.
Pero aleja un poco y la imagen cambia drásticamente.

Qué está manteniendo vivos a los toros
Dos palabras: legislación y ETFs. El Proyecto de Ley de Estructura del Mercado que avanza a través del Congreso ha inyectado un verdadero optimismo en la tesis de XRP a medio plazo. Combínalo con el creciente apetito institucional a través de las solicitudes de ETF de XRP-spot, y tienes una receta para la recuperación, solo que no de inmediato.

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