【In-depth Analysis】If a black swan arrives, where is BTC's 'century iron bottom'? Lock in the extreme range of $29,800 - $37,600
If the future market encounters liquidity exhaustion or a macro black swan (such as a U.S. stock market recession), where will Bitcoin drop to? Based on the MVRV model, on-chain holding costs, and CME historical gaps, whether in 2025 or 2026, once a major bear market begins, $29,800 - $37,600 will be the ultimate defense in a mathematical sense.
This is not panic; it is preparation for a 'once in a decade' golden pit. 👇
🔍 Why is it $29,800 - $37,600? Three major pieces of evidence
In this range, the technical aspects and on-chain data have formed a perfect resonance:
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$BTC Wu said that, according to SoSoValue data, yesterday (Eastern Time February 12) the total net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was 410 million USD, with none of the twelve ETFs experiencing net inflows. The total net outflow of Ethereum spot ETFs was 113 million USD, with none of the nine ETFs experiencing net inflows.
$STBL Batch Long 🇨🇳 🟢 STBLUSDT Binance Open Interest Increased by 16.8% in the Past 3600 Seconds, Price Increased by 13.9%, Open Interest: $2.6M, Open Interest/Market Cap Ratio: 12.2%, 24-Hour Price Change: +12.1%
$XPL Batch Long 🇨🇳 🟢 XPLUSDT Binance Open Interest Increased by 5.0%, Price Increased by 6.2% in the Last 3600 Seconds, Open Interest: $39.80 Million, Open Interest/Market Cap Ratio: 20.4%, 24-Hour Price Change: +17.0%
$NIL 24h surged by 22.29%, breaking through the 5-day/10-day average volume, RSI(6) rebounded to 62, short-term momentum is strong. Batch buying strategy:
1. 0.053–0.055 open 40%, stop loss 0.049, take profit 0.068 2. 0.048–0.050 increase position by 35%, stop loss 0.044, take profit 0.072 3. 0.042–0.044 add position by 25%, stop loss 0.037, take profit 0.078 Total position ≤ capital 30%, single batch stop loss ≤ 2%. If it stabilizes at 0.058 and volume continues, profit can be taken accordingly; if it falls below 0.03751, exit completely.
$XMR 6-hour chart has broken above the 15-day moving average, RSI momentum is rising, can gradually position long orders:
- First position: open at 338–342, stop loss at 325, take profit at 375, accounting for 40% - Second position: open at 328–332, stop loss at 320, take profit at 370, accounting for 35% - Third position: open at 315–320, stop loss at 305, take profit at 365, accounting for 25% Profit and loss ratio ≥3:1, strictly execute position and risk control, follow the trend.
CLANKERUSDT Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy
$CLANKER
1. Price and Moving Average: Current price 34.95, has surpassed the 15-day moving average (32.95), the daily level bullish trend is clear, rebounding from a low of 22.46. 2. RSI Indicator: RSI(6)=55.46, RSI(14)=51.95, RSI(21)=50.42, all above 50, indicating bullish strength is dominant, rebound momentum is sufficient. 3. Trading Volume: Current trading volume (257000) is below the 5-day and 10-day volume moving averages, rebound momentum needs further confirmation, attention is required for subsequent volume expansion. 4. Recent Trend: After a significant decline from a high of 58.76, a phase bottom has formed around 22.46, currently in a rebound repair phase.
Current price 0.06353, violently rebounding from a hellish low of 0.04520, RSI strongly rising from the oversold zone, trading volume increasing simultaneously, bulls have begun to sound the counterattack horn! ✅Opening range: 0.06200-0.06400 ✅Stop loss: 0.05800 (get out if it breaks, never cling to the battle) ✅Take profit 1: 0.06900 (15-day moving average pressure, take a bite first) ✅Take profit 2: 0.07600 (important resistance level, profit doubles)
Brothers, don't hesitate! Position up to 3%, set a good stop loss, follow the main force to take profits, don’t miss out on the big gains!
Current price 0.13409, a large bullish candle directly breaks through the 15-day moving average! Rising sharply from a low of 0.12548, trading volume has surged, bulls are fully charged! ✅Open position: 0.13300-0.13500 ✅Stop loss: 0.13000 (get out if it breaks, absolutely no fighting over it) ✅Take profit 1: 0.13700 (take a bite first) ✅Take profit 2: 0.13950 (challenge the previous high, double the profit)
Brothers, don’t hesitate! Position it to 5%, set a good stop loss, follow the main force to profit, don’t miss out on a big opportunity!
$ZAMA 02-10 Instant Long Strategy (Gambling Version)
Current price 0.02766, stabilizing from the low point of 0.02469, RSI rebounding from the low position, bearish strength weakening! Although still below the 15-day moving average, signs of oversold rebound are evident, can take a small position for speculation.
- Opening range: 0.02720 - 0.02780 - Stop loss: 0.02600 (key support, exit if broken) - Take profit 1: 0.02855 (15-day moving average pressure, risk-reward ratio approximately 1:1.2) - Take profit 2: 0.02934 (important pressure, risk-reward ratio approximately 1:2.0)
⚠️ Strictly control position ≤ 3%, set stop loss properly! Follow the trend, take profit without being greedy, and do not delay stop loss!
Current price 0.007933, stabilizing and rebounding from the low point of 0.004972, RSI rebounding from the oversold zone, bearish momentum weakening! Although still in a mid-term downtrend, opportunities for a rebound from oversold conditions are emerging, caution is required when participating. ✅Opening range: 0.007700-0.008000 ✅Stop loss: 0.007200 (key support, exit if broken) ✅Take profit 1: 0.008600 (small resistance level, secure profits) ✅Take profit 2: 0.009100 (important resistance, risk-reward ratio 2.5:1)
⚠️ Strictly control position ≤3%, set stop loss properly! Go with the trend, take profits without being greedy, and do not delay stop losses!
Current price 0.09271, strong breakthrough of the 15-day moving average, rebounding from the low of 0.07087 with increasing volume, bullish trend established! Short-term RSI overbought, beware of pullbacks, build positions in batches for more stability! ✅ Opening range: 0.09100-0.09300 ✅ Stop loss: 0.08700 (support at the 15-day moving average, exit on break) ✅ Take profit 1: 0.09700 (small resistance level, secure profits) ✅ Take profit 2: 0.10200 (previous high resistance, profit-loss ratio 2.5:1)
⚠️ Strictly control position size ≤5%, set stop loss! Go with the trend, take profits without being greedy, do not delay stop loss!
Current Price 0.09755, retracing from the high point of 0.37977 to the key support area, RSI has bottomed out and is rebounding, bullish momentum is emerging! ✅ Opening Range: 0.09600-0.09800 ✅ Stop Loss: 0.09200 (strong support below, exit if broken) ✅ Take Profit 1: 0.10800 (minor resistance level, secure profits) ✅ Take Profit 2: 0.11900 (15-day moving average resistance, risk-reward ratio 3:1)
⚠️ Market volatility is high, strictly control position size ≤5%, set stop loss properly! Go with the trend, take profits without greed, and do not delay stop losses!