情绪交易大师Tony

Making money relies on luck, while keeping money relies on wisdom.

February 11, 2026, 7:15 PM
There are 1.5 million cash in the account, a car costing 250,000, and a fully paid house of 90 square meters. Do you think this is the standard configuration for the middle class? Wrong, this is already the wealth ceiling that most ordinary people can stabilize in their lifetime. Going further up, there is a high probability of losing all the money in hand. There are too many living lessons around me. Some made 2 million from e-commerce, turned around to take out a loan to buy a commercial property, wanting to be a landlord, but the shop couldn’t be rented out for three years, every month the mortgage is suffocating. Opening a milk tea shop, saved 800,000, saw others making money from franchising and became envious, followed the trend and invested in 3 branches, and lost everything in half a year. These people are not unmotivated; they simply do not understand a truth: making money relies on luck, while keeping money relies on understanding.

Recent market forecast February 9, 2026
1. Current cycle positioning: Early stage of the bear market (distribution to decline)
After the Bitcoin halving in May 2024, a bull market main wave is expected from 2024 to 2025. After reaching a historical high of $126,000 in October 2025, it is anticipated to continue a downward trend, with a one-day plunge exceeding 13% on February 5, 2026, dropping to a low of $60,000, which is a decline of over 50% from the peak. The transition from the end of the bull market to the early stage of the bear market features: continuous capital outflow, a wave of high-leverage liquidations, a slowdown in ETF capital inflow, and a shift in market sentiment from greed to extreme fear, aligning with the characteristics of the early bear market of 'rapidly killing valuations, liquidity contraction, and trend break'.

In the last 3 days (2.6–2.8), BTC has violently rebounded from around 60,000, primarily due to oversold recovery + short covering + easing macro sentiment + the resonance of the end of deleveraging. The mainstream market expectation is: short-term rebound continuation, medium-term still leaning towards oscillation, reversal needs to wait for ETF and macro signals confirmation. Below is a breakdown by dimension:

I. Core drivers of the rebound (already occurred)

1. Technical recovery after extreme overselling
After the 2.5 crash, the Fear and Greed Index dropped to 9 (extreme fear), RSI entered the oversold range, the 60,000 level formed strong psychological support, triggering short profit-taking + bottom-fishing funds entering, resulting in a V-shaped rebound.

From February 1 to 5, 2026, Bitcoin fell sharply from around $78,000 to $84,000, with a single-day drop of about 13% on February 5, breaking through key support levels of $70,000 and $69,000, reaching a low of around $60,000. This decline is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic negativity, institutional capital withdrawal, high leverage liquidation, and worsening regulatory expectations. Below is a breakdown of the core reasons by timeline and logic:

1. Macroeconomic Liquidity and Interest Rate Expectations (Master Switch)

1. The nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman triggers 'hawkish pricing'
Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, interpreted by the market as indicating higher interest rates for a longer period and a more decisive reduction in the balance sheet. The U.S. dollar index strengthens, and risk assets (technology stocks, cryptocurrency) face pressure across the board, with Bitcoin experiencing amplified declines as a high-beta asset.

Many big shots have been killed by bottom fishing.

Many investment big shots in history have fallen for 'bottom fishing.' The core issue is misjudging the downward trend and underestimating market risks. The more it falls, the more they buy, ultimately getting trapped. Here are a few typical cases:

1. Jesse Livermore (legendary U.S. stock speculator)

The most classic bottom fishing failure: Before the 1929 crash of the U.S. stock market, he predicted the market peak and shorted, making billions. However, after the crash, the U.S. stock market rebounded sharply, and he misjudged that 'the bottom has been reached' and heavily bought in at the bottom, adding high leverage. As a result, the U.S. stock market began a long-term decline lasting several years. He was deeply trapped after multiple margin calls, ultimately losing all his wealth and committing suicide in his later years.