等风来Vireo

The essence of life is the process of information processing.

Construct cognitive depth through "dimension elevation."
Dimension elevation acquisition: Integrate fragmented experiences and discrete signals into a multi-dimensional, cross-temporal insight system.

Achieve value output and connection through "dimension reduction."
Dimension reduction expression: The process of compressing complex insights, intuitions, and systematic knowledge into linear language or text.

Dimension elevation is an inward evolution, while dimension reduction is an outward giving.
The most counterintuitive point is: Our efforts to learn, read, and practice are essentially making ourselves "harder to understand" (dimension elevation); while all our desires for expression are essentially conducting a "costly translation" (dimension reduction).

Before the non-farm data was released, there was a trading recession. After the data came out, it wasn't that bad. Once the negative news was fully reflected, it became positive, so it rose
#非农就业数据

Since it is clear that the biggest factor affecting BTC currently is the 'algorithmic prisoner's dilemma', which is locked by mainstream risk control models.

Focus on the major factors, and do not look at other various indicators, as they are minor factors and noise.

It is more important to pay attention to macro factors. Recently, the US dollar index has fallen, and the rise of Katsuya Sakamoto is favorable. This week, it is highly probable that it can return to 74000+, it's that simple
$BTC

I have a feeling that BTC will be back to 74,000+ next week.

Reason:

The U.S. Department of Labor stated that job vacancies in December fell to the lowest level in over five years.

The number of job vacancies has hit a five-year low, indicating that the demand side of the labor market has broken. This is a leading indicator; non-farm payrolls are just a lagging confirmation.

No matter how 'hawkish' Kevin Walsh may be, if the U.S. economy really enters a recession (as indicated by job vacancies), the first thing he will do after taking office is not to raise interest rates or maintain restrictive policies, but to be forced to cut rates to put out the fire.

Currently, the U.S. dollar remains at 97.819 based on a false assumption—that the 'economy is strong enough to withstand hawkish policies.'
Once next Friday's non-farm data confirms a collapse in employment, the market will find itself trading against thin air for a week, and at that point, the dollar will face a 'Davis Double Whammy' (deteriorating fundamentals + expectations of a policy shift).

If it’s not just 'weak employment,' but rather a 'catastrophic collapse' (like soaring unemployment rates and negative non-farm growth), the market may directly skip 'moderate economic slowdown/cutting rates' and enter 'extreme recession/panic.'

Too bad is not good, too good is also not good, being just bad is best.

#btc #ETH

Bitcoin has been messed up by Wall Street and has now become a scapegoat for macroeconomic issues.

The trading algorithms of firms like BlackRock have locked it into a cage of 'high volatility risk assets'.

No matter what happens in the world—whether inflation explodes or the stock market collapses—as long as the algorithm detects risk (VIX rises), it will mechanically sell Bitcoin to reduce leverage. This has led to a vicious cycle: because the algorithm thinks it behaves like the US stock market, it trades it like the US stock market, and as a result, it truly only follows the US stock market.

On January 31, 2026, the Ministry of Public Security, together with relevant departments, officially solicited public opinions on the "Cybercrime Prevention Law (Draft for Comments)".

If the previous "9.4" and "9.24" were about dismantling the original houses (exchanges, mines), then this time's "Cybercrime Prevention Law" is about pouring concrete even on the foundation (nodes, code, OTC capital flows).

In simple terms, the previous central bank documents told you "this thing is not protected, if you lose, don't look for me", mainly targeting money;
now the Ministry of Public Security's legislation is telling you "no matter if you are domestic or abroad, as long as you are involved in this industry and cannot cooperate with the review, you may be committing a crime", mainly targeting people.

The harshest part is that it has created a deadlock for the industry: if you want to comply? Then you must be able to "block" illegal information. But blockchain was originally designed to be "not easily blocked". Therefore, for those still working on public chains, nodes, and U merchants in the country, this is no longer a matter of "just rectifying it", but a legal-level "version incompatibility". This may be the true endgame for Web3 in China.

Why has BTC underperformed against AI and gold so thoroughly?

The fundamental reason is that in a K-shaped economy, you either bet on the future productivity explosion with the highest risk-reward in AI or hedge with gold.

The narrative positioning is unclear; some say it's digital gold, others say it's a risk asset, and so on. Both sides touch upon it a bit, and one could argue that neither is accurate; the positioning is unclear, which could also mean insufficient consensus or it could be too expensive.

No one can clearly articulate the specific reasons, or when it rises, there will be great scholars to debate for me.

The logic behind BTC at 120,000 and 70,000 is different. Certainty comes from rising, and it can also come from falling.

Now we need to wait for new factors to emerge and be reconsidered, such as the conclusion of the American legislative discussions to establish a framework. It is still uncertain whether this will be positive or negative.

How is your mood with the decline?

Let's say something positive to comfort everyone about what will happen in the next few months.
1. The US and China will start mutual visits in April, a ceasefire is in place, and both sides need to catch their breath.
2. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is coming to an end, and we are in the settlement phase.
3. Kevin Warsh is just talking big; with over 36 trillion in debt, the cost of tapering will be social unrest, and with the midterm elections coming, he will ultimately continue to be dovish.

#加密市场回调