The structure is starting to resemble a head and shoulders, and the market, as always, keeps us in suspense without providing conditions for a trade.
The left shoulder and head are quite clearly visible.
What is forming now looks more like an attempt to gather the right shoulder: a weak pullback, without momentum and without volume.
The key point is not the shape of the figure.
But how the price will behave in the neck area: - will there be acceptance below the zone; - will there be initiative from the seller, rather than just inertia of movement. So far, this is just an observation, not a confirmed pattern. The market is in a decision phase, and the next impulse will provide more information than any hypothesis right now.
I've been in the market for 4 years. Over this time I've gone through the full cycle of a trader: - quick money, - euphoria, - mistakes, - and painful losses.
The market quickly teaches the most important lesson: It's not the smartest people who make money, but the most disciplined.
I don't trade emotions and don't chase every impulse. My focus is on zones, market expectations, liquidity, macro factors, and psychology.
Here I publish: • thoughts before movement, not after; • 'if/else' scenarios; • observations on BTC and the market as a whole; • conclusions from my own mistakes and decisions.
No signals. No promises. No '100%'.
The market is not a chart. The market is mindset and responsibility for your own decisions.
If this approach resonates with you - you're in the right place.
Latest important news (according to current data) Institutional flows in ETFs — outflows/inflows of capital continue to directly impact the short-term dynamics of BTC. Macroeconomic background — expectations for Fed rates and inflation data are increasing volatility. Overall liquidity condition — decreasing volumes and investor caution are increasing pressure on the market.
My thoughts:
BTC is forming a consolidation around 64–67k after a strong impulsive decline. The structure remains bearish with lower highs. The 64,000–65,000 zone acts as local support. Losing this level could increase pressure. As long as the price remains below 74,000–75,000, the global scenario remains weak.
XRP — market outlook TF: 4H Current price: ~1.36 Trend: bearish
Latest important news (according to current data) The legal history of Ripple and the regulatory background — any updates on the SEC case continue to affect XRP volatility. Interest in institutional products — discussions around ETFs and derivative instruments support speculative interest. Overall market condition — the dynamics of Bitcoin and liquidity in altcoins directly reflect on XRP.
My thoughts:
XRP is forming a lower structure after a strong impulsive decline. The attempt to bounce back currently looks like a consolidation without a trend change. The zone 1.30–1.35 serves as local support, but there are no signs of a reversal yet. Any rise below 1.50 remains corrective.
As long as the price stays below 1.50, selling pressure persists.
SUI — a view on the market TF: 4H Current price: ~0.90 Trend: descending
Latest important news (according to current data) Development of the Sui ecosystem — infrastructure updates and expansion of the DeFi direction support long-term interest in the project. Developer activity and the launch of new dApps — the growth of the ecosystem affects the fundamental valuation of the token. Overall market condition — with Bitcoin weakness, pressure on altcoins, including SUI, intensifies.
My thoughts:
SUI continues to move in a descending structure with updates of local minima. Attempts at recovery so far look like corrective pullbacks without breaking the trend. The range of 0.85–0.90 acts as a potential reaction area, but there is no confirmation of a reversal yet. As long as the price remains below 1.05, selling pressure persists.
DOGE — market outlook TF: 4H Current price: ~0.0918 Trend: bearish
Latest important news (according to current data) Activity around X (Twitter) and statements by Elon Musk — any mentions of DOGE may temporarily increase volatility. Overall market condition and Bitcoin dynamics — DOGE maintains a high correlation with the general sentiment on altcoins. Declining interest in the meme segment — in a weak market, liquidity leaves high-risk assets the fastest.
My thoughts:
DOGE continues to form a descending structure with updates to local minima. Selling pressure remains, and attempts to buy back look weak. The current zone of 0.09 is a possible reaction area, but there are no signs of a reversal yet. Any rise below 0.105 remains corrective. As long as the price stays below 0.11, the bearish scenario remains.
WIF — a look at the market TF: 4H Current price: ~0.208 Trend: bearish Latest important news (according to current data) Activity in the Solana ecosystem — WIF directly depends on the sentiment around SOL and the overall interest in the meme segment.
Overall state of altcoins — in a weak meme market, meme coins are the first to lose liquidity.
Trading volume — a decrease in volume and the absence of aggressive buying intensifies selling pressure.
My thoughts: WIF continues to form a series of lower highs and lows. Pressure remains, the structure is completely bearish. The current zone around 0.20 is already an area of potential reaction, but there are no signs of a structural break yet. Any rise below 0.25 looks like a corrective pullback. As long as the price remains below 0.26–0.27, the downward scenario persists.
$ADA ADA — a look at the market TF: 4H Current price: ~0.259 Trend: bearish Latest important news (according to current data) Developer activity in Cardano — updates/progress on Hydra or scalability protocols may boost interest. The influence of Bitcoin/altcoin season movement — ADA most often correlates with the movement of the entire market. Trading volume on exchanges — if the volume sharply decreases, an increase in bearish pressure is more likely.
My thoughts:
ADA is currently under pressure — the market clearly indicates weakness. After a strong decline, volatility around lower levels is possible, but retesting from below without a reversal would mean a risk of further decline. As long as the price remains below the ~0.30 area, the pressure remains bearish.
Watch the whale 3NVeXm — it just deposited another 1100 $BTC ($74.37 million) to #Binance
In the last 2 days, this whale has deposited a total of 7900 $BTC ($539 million) to #Binance. https://x.com/lookonchain/status/2021969739342557614 $BTC
The 4H structure shows exhaustion of the downward trend in the demand zone 78–79. Multiple failures below 80 indicate strong buying absorption. The price is now stabilizing above 81 — an early transition from lower lows to base formation. Trader $SOL Here👇
The chart screams: BUY! A clear upward trend. A breakout is inevitable. A strong impulse rise has been confirmed. Higher lows have been recorded. The price is compressing significantly. Resistance is about to be broken. This is not a joke. Enter NOW. Huge profits await you. Warning: Trading involves risk.
$C98 is rapidly growing. Buyers are dominating. Higher lows have been recorded. We are now aiming for the maximum of the range. The momentum is unstoppable. A breakout above 0.034–0.035 will create strong support. Expect rapid growth. Watch for profits. This is your chance. Conduct your own research.
$PIPPIN A clear long position has formed, indicating that buyers are entering the game and bullish momentum is increasing. Entry price 🎯Top percentage 0.56893 🎯Top percentage 0.60000 🛑 Stop-loss 0.50000
The zone 1800–1900$ acts as an area of active demand. After an aggressive sell-off, the market starts to stabilize, forming a base and showing signs of impulse recovery on the 4H.
The scenario looks bullish as long as we hold above the lower supports. A technical pullback upwards is likely before the next strong market move.
The key task for buyers is to secure above 2100$, then the structure will start to break the local descending trend.
🎯TP 1 - 2100$ 🎯TP 2 - 2200$ 🎯TP 3 - 2300$
As long as the price holds the range of 1800–1900$, the priority remains with the buyer. A loss of 1800$ will again open the way to update the lows.
$PIPPIN Strong V-shaped rebound from the zone 0.17–0.20 and aggressive momentum recovery on 4H. The price has approached the local resistance at 0.56–0.57 — liquidity is concentrated here, and a possible seller reaction may occur.
If buyers maintain pressure and establish themselves above 0.57 — the movement may accelerate.
$TWT strong bounce from the zone 0.44 and increasing momentum on the 4H. If buyers maintain control, further growth is possible. Entry zone: 0.50 – 0.52 Stop-loss: 0.46 Targets: 🎯 TP1: 0.55 🎯 TP2: 0.60 🎯 TP3: 0.66 As long as the price holds above the support of 0.48–0.50, bulls have the advantage. Manage risks properly.
Data on the US labor market has shaved off $410 million from cryptocurrencies.
Unemployment has decreased to 4.3%, raising concerns that the Fed will maintain tight financial conditions longer than expected. Formally, the statistics are positive — Trump has already called it an economic victory.
However, the market has focused on the risks of decreasing liquidity. BTC has broken through the consolidation range, and if negative sentiments persist, the next stop is $62k.
I think if this scenario works out like the two previous ones — we can take a small break. The market does everything itself, the main thing is not to interfere and to lock in profits on time. Next — based on the facts. $BTC
$BTC BlackRock has transferred large volumes to Coinbase Prime again
"BlackRock has just deposited another 3,402 $BTC ($234.3 million) and 30,216 $ETH ($60.83 million) to Coinbase Prime". $ETH #crypto #BlackRock #btc #ETH