kirmanishah

#美国伊朗对峙
Currently, the confrontation between the U.S. and Iran is in a state of "talking while fighting, extreme tug-of-war" due to over 40 years of structural contradictions compounded by the recent escalation of military, diplomatic, and sanctions activities. The risk is extremely high, but a full-scale war has not yet broken out.

Current Key Developments

February 6: The two countries held indirect negotiations in Oman (the first high-level contact since the U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025), with no substantial agreement reached, currently only maintaining communication channels.
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On the day of the negotiations: The U.S. announced a new round of sanctions (15 entities, 2 individuals, 14 oil tankers) targeting Iranian oil trade; Iranian armed forces entered a state of maximum alert, publicly displaying a new type of ballistic missile with a range of 2000 kilometers.
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Military Deployment: The U.S. aircraft carrier strike group is deployed in the Arabian Sea, while Iran strengthens air defense and maritime patrols in the Persian Gulf. Both sides are currently in a high state of readiness.

The three most critical core deadlocks (fundamentally unable to reach an agreement)

First, the nuclear issue
The U.S. demands that Iran completely cease high-enrichment uranium production, destroy stockpiles, and close key nuclear facilities; however, Iran insists that peaceful nuclear energy is a matter of sovereignty and only accepts limited restrictions, rejecting a "zero nuclear" stance.
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Second, missiles and regional powers
The U.S. demands that Iran limit long-range missiles and stop supporting regional armed groups such as the Houthis and Hezbollah; Iran clearly states this is a red line for national defense and will not negotiate.
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Third, sanctions and trust
Iran demands a comprehensive and immediate lifting of sanctions; however, the U.S. only agrees to a phased easing and continues to increase sanctions after negotiations, resulting in virtually zero mutual trust between Iran and the U.S.

Another deep-rooted issue

Historical Context: U.S.-Iran relations have been severed since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, remaining in a state of hostility for a long time.
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Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz (a global energy choke point), while the U.S. aims to dominate the Middle East and curb Iran's influence.
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Meanwhile, the U.S. maintains the petrodollar and regional hegemony, while Iran insists on independence and an anti-hegemonic stance.

Judging by the current situation

Both the U.S. and Iran are unwilling to engage in a full-scale war (because the costs are too high, and there is significant pressure both domestically and internationally).
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Currently, the short-term situation consists of diplomatic engagement + sanctions pressure + military deterrence running concurrently, with extremely high risks of friction and miscalculation.
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In the long term, if core differences cannot be resolved, the confrontation will become prolonged, which will definitely continue to impact global energy, finance, and Middle Eastern security.

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